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Pattern December to Remember

I mean Christ almighty! GFS high temperatures on December 7th!! grant it it’s not full sunshine but HOLY BALLS this is ridiculous for early December and would absolutely set the stage for an ice storm no doubt you can’t move cold air like this6809C221-3BF1-4369-B77E-867A0BC8390F.jpeg
 
I think this question is a Webber question. I looked at the mjo charts from the models and all have varying results. Which model has the best handle on the mjo currently, if at all?
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
I mean Christ almighty! GFS high temperatures on December 7th!! grant it it’s not full sunshine but HOLY BALLS this is ridiculous for early December and would absolutely set the stage for an ice storm no doubt you can’t move cold air like thisView attachment 95996
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Change that to anomaly , it has it as barely -16 lmao. The gfs thinks the average high is 44 on that day.
 
Lickwx said:
Change that to anomaly , it has it as barely -16 lmao. The gfs thinks the average high is 44 on that day.
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Ignore other comment, looks like the 2m temps are low too. But I think they are in C
 
Like it's just comical at this point, the OPs and the ensembles are just pulling complete fricking 180s. I'm hoping this instance is just the 18z being the 18z but still, it's embarrassing.
 
SimeonNC said:
Like it's just comical at this point, the OPs and the ensembles are just pulling complete fricking 180s. I'm hoping this instance is just the 18z being the 18z but still, it's embarrassing.
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I dont know models seem to be in agreement that a big time cold shot is coming first week of December ensembles have been fairly consistent with this the past few days now
 
Before I share the climo graph, (as I promised to @Ollie Williams & others) I've made a much deserved facelift the massive teleconnection spreadsheet on my website, made it a bit user friendly and added a few parameters to it, like the TNH Index I talked about yesterday as well as the RMM MJO and then made distinctions between the type of winter storm (ice or snow) and its severity.

I've taken a screen capture (shown below) from a piece of it around January 2000 to explain what each column means:

From left to right:
Column 1: Day # (Number of total Nov-Apr days since 1948 in sequential order).
Column 2: Winter Season Day # (Starting at 1 on Nov, and increasing up to 181 on April 30th, then going back to one on the next Nov 1, etc.)
Column 3: Year (In sequential order from 1948 to 2021)
Column 4: Month # (1 = January, 2 = February, 3 = March, etc.)
Column 5: Day (of month) (self explanatory).
Column 6: Daily Arctic Oscillation (AO) Index: (1950-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 7: Daily North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) Index: (1948-Present). (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 8: Daily Pacific-North American Pattern (PNA) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 9: Daily Eastern Pacific Oscillation (EPO) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 10: Daily Western Pacific Oscillation (WPO) Index: (1948-Present) (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 11: Daily Tropical-Northern Hemisphere (TNH) Index: (1948-Present) Defined using the following daily-averaged NCEP-NCAR Reanalysis 500mb geopotential height grid boxes: [[(30N-60N, 160W-120W) - 42.5N-67.5N, 105W-35W) +[(15N-32.5N, 100W-30W) - 42.5N-67.5N, 105W-35W)]/2] (I normalized + detrended each month to remove long-term trends)
Column 12: Daily Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) Index: (1974-Present) Phase. Amplitude < 0.95 = "Null" phase.
Column 13: Daily Realtime Multivariate MJO (RMM) Index: (1974-Present) Amplitude
Column 14: NC Winter Storms Categorized by severity I've chosen arbitrarily but I think the descriptions and corresponding amounts are pretty accurate:
"Minor" (Level 1) Winter Storm: At least 1" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least a trace of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Major" (Level 2) Winter Storm: More than 4" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 0.25" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Extreme" (Level 3) Winter Storm: More than 8" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 0.50" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont
"Historic" (Level 4) Winter Storm: More than 12" Snow/Sleet accumulation &/or at least 1" of glaze anywhere east of the mountains & far western piedmont

Column 15: Hyperlinks to Winter Storm Maps associated with each storm. (a few are missing & haven't been analyzed yet, but that'll change soon)

Column 16: Determines which precipitation type (snow or ice) has greater severity. Ice takes precedent over snow if they're both of the same category (because generally speaking, ice tends to be more destructive than snow)

Column 17: sources for maps &/or data:
Webberweather.com
NC State Climate Office Winter Storm Database
NWS RAH Past events
xmACIS2


Screen Shot 2021-11-26 at 5.09.35 PM.png


You can also download this spreadsheet by clicking the link below:
Nov-Mar Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
 
Webberweather53 said:
Check out this masterpiece

We finally have a nice climo chart like this to call our own in NC!

View attachment 96001
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Wow this is truly amazing stuff here. We may get into weenie bouts here sometimes but I’m truly so impressed with the stuff you’ve done for the state
 
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