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Pattern December to Remember

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
28 currently. Not sure how cold we got. This will be the last temperature we see below 50 degrees for at least the next 9 days. Let that sink in.
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You mean after tonight right? Should be another frosty one tomorrow morning
 
Does anyone know if the west (California) is setting snow records for December? I can’t recall ever seeing such model weenie snow from the GFS usually it’s about drought? I heard even the low elevations will have a white Christmas too. @Webberweather53
 
PRISM_tmean_early_4kmD2_anomaly_MTD_20211222.png
 
Appears BNA will end up with an average mean temperature of 50+ this December. The only other years that has happened is 1889 (56.4), 1931 (50.2), 1956 (50.2), and 2015 (53.1) *** averaged 49.6 in Dec 1984, just before the hammer dropped in Jan '85.
1889-90 & 1931-32, January & February continued the exceptionally warm, with very cold air in early March. 2015-16 was followed by a major January snowstorm in much of middle TN, with winter cutting off just after Valentine's Day. We are currently sitting at 50.7 through the 22nd; with the remainder of the month's expected very warm conditions, wondering if it could bump it up to 2015 for 2nd warmest ever.
 
It's not often that we're warmer tham Miami at Christmas time. Highs there will only be in the upper 70s.
 
Much of OK and TX is also under a moderate to severe drought, which I'm sure is aiding in this feedback loop of warm temps.

Not much chance for improvement either in the forseeable future...
 
It will also be interesting to see if a site in Texas records 90*F during this period.

It won't help that the warmest temps aloft will be moving through overnight Friday evening / Saturday morning, versus during peak heating.

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Interestingly enough, DFW's record high of 80°F for Christmas Day was set just in 2016.

That said, the record high for Christmas Eve (88°F set in 1955) is safe.
 
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FallsLake said:
Yeah, it's also showing 10 degrees cooler for sections of Ga, SC, and NC because of more cloud cover. Nice to be at least cool(ish) for Christmas.

Late afternoon tomorrow:
View attachment 99031
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NAM is already 5 degrees too low for my locale. It does under-estimate quite often, though.
 
Didn’t someone predict Charlotte would have a top 3 warmest December on record? They’re going to be very close per current forecasts. The warmest are:

55.4 in 2015
54.7 in 1889
53.0 in 1956
50.6 in 1971

Current forecast has 52.9. So, an easy 4th and possible 3rd.

Also, Charlotte is very likely headed to the largest warming from Nov to Dec on record. If they end up with 52.9 and considering Nov was 49.6, the warming would be 3.3. The strongest warming from Nov to Dec on record is only 2.9 (1956) with 1889’s 2.8 in 2nd and 1984’s 2.2 in 3rd.

KATL is clearly headed to their 3rd warmest Dec on record with the current forecast at 55.7. Here are the warmest:

57.6 2015
57.2 1889
54.4 1956
53.7 1984

The 55.7 would be 2.8 warmer than November’s 52.9. However, that much warming would put it only in 4th place with 1889’s warming from Nov to Dec of a whopping 5.5!

*Edited for typo last paragraph about KATL warming Nov to Dec.
 
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GaWx said:
Didn’t someone predict Charlotte would have a top 3 warmest December on record? They’re going to be very close per current forecasts. The warmest are:

55.4 in 2015
54.7 in 1889
53.0 in 1956
50.6 in 1971

Current forecast has 52.9. So, an easy 4th and possible 3rd.

Also, Charlotte is very likely headed to the largest warming from Nov to Dec on record. If they end up with 52.9 and considering Nov was 49.6, the warming would be 3.3. The strongest warming from Nov to Dec on record is only 2.9 (1956) with 1889’s 2.8 in 2nd and 1984’s 2.2 in 3rd.

KATL is clearly headed to their 3rd warmest Dec on record with the current forecast at 55.7. Here are the warmest:

57.6 2015
57.2 1889
54.4 1956
53.7 1984

The 55.7 would be 3.2 warmer than November’s 52.5. However, that much warming would put it only in 2nd place behind 1889’s warming from Nov to Dec of a whopping 5.5!
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3rd is definitely gonna happen maybe close to 2nd AEA5ADCF-AD82-4BB4-AF98-7B50DD4E590F.png
 
Fire weather here too very windy and dry

Missed the all time December high by 2 degrees due to clouds moving in late but still an insane 78 for late December... Even now it's still well into the 70s
 
SD said:
Yeah tomorrow is a tough fire weather day
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Looks like Rah NWS playing catch up, probably wake up to an advisory.

Hazardous Weather Outlook​

Hazardous Weather Outlook
National Weather Service Raleigh NC
921 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021

NCZ011-026>028-040>043-073>078-083>086-088-089-260230-
Halifax-Franklin-Nash-Edgecombe-Chatham-Wake-Johnston-Wilson-Stanly-
Montgomery-Moore-Lee-Harnett-Wayne-Anson-Richmond-Scotland-Hoke-
Cumberland-Sampson-
921 PM EST Fri Dec 24 2021

This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina.

.DAY ONE...Tonight.

Hazardous weather is not expected at this time.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Saturday through Thursday.

Strong southwesterly winds will frequently gust between 30 and 40 mph Christmas
Day, highest between 10 AM and 4 PM. Isolated gusts between 45 and 50
mph will also be possible, mainly along and east of Interstate 95,
where at least scattered power outages will result. A Wind Advisory
may be needed.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

Spotter activation is not expected at this time.
 
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