Merry Flamin TorchmasView attachment 97120
Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.Yep, that's the case in many instances, using a 45-60 day sliding centered window around each one could help increase sample size. Another solution would be to just "create" more data, i.e. construct an MJO index based on zonal + upper level winds, VP200, and SLPa that goes back to 1950 in ERA-5, which would afford us an additional 25 years to work w/ than current RMM MJO (1974-2021). Been trying to wrap my head around how to go about doing something like this, but it would be really useful to a lot of people and I think using those parameters is very defensible because they're easier to resolve than OLRa (used in RMM) and VP200a is more closely linked w/ the mid-latitude circulation
Euro still holds rain, but it comes in sooner, and is out as fast as it comes in.GFS says we are still all systems go for rain Sat / Sun
View attachment 97119
Merry Flamin TorchmasView attachment 97120
Feel like we’re losing the cold look for early January, where as a few days ago, we were looking good, -epo, and all that jazzWe’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.
Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run.
Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.
Yep models have moved toward more of a classic SER look with the western trough shifted east vs the central US ridge of a few days ago.We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.
Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.
Warmth in winter is a lot more tolerable than in summer.We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.
Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.