Pattern December to Remember

[GaWx]

Yeah, this GEFS is the warmest (before any potential cold change) in a good while.

 

[olhausen]

39.1 degrees ATM. The 10 day has warmth but never sustained for more then a few days. I can deal with this for December no problem. Now January is a different story and I hope temps are more consistently cool by then.

 

[LickWx]

Saturday looks like a beach day! I love those kinds of days , where eastern nc is pushing 80 and very muggy in the middle of winter . I think I may head to goose creek Saturday then! Raleigh could be upper 70s as well. I also love those days because the western parts miss out on the big anomalies for a change

 

[smast16]

GFS says we are still all systems go for rain Sat / Sun

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Merry Flamin Torchmas

 

[Webberweather53]

Merry Flamin TorchmasView attachment 97120

As those cold anomalies over Canada and Alaska start to slide SEward, so do the epicenter of the warm anomalies that will initially be to our north the next 7-10 days. Could get warmer here locally leading right up to Christmas

 

[Ollie Williams]

Yep, that's the case in many instances, using a 45-60 day sliding centered window around each one could help increase sample size. Another solution would be to just "create" more data, i.e. construct an MJO index based on zonal + upper level winds, VP200, and SLPa that goes back to 1950 in ERA-5, which would afford us an additional 25 years to work w/ than current RMM MJO (1974-2021). Been trying to wrap my head around how to go about doing something like this, but it would be really useful to a lot of people and I think using those parameters is very defensible because they're easier to resolve than OLRa (used in RMM) and VP200a is more closely linked w/ the mid-latitude circulation

Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.

 

[smast16]

GFS says we are still all systems go for rain Sat / Sun
View attachment 97119

Euro still holds rain, but it comes in sooner, and is out as fast as it comes in.


GFS predicting a good 12 hr rain maker in NC, while Euro depicts a line of storms.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

King hype. Long-range models are for entertainment purposes only.

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

ECMWF Model

ECMWF model forecast of MSLP & Precip (Rain/Frozen) for CONUS

www.tropicaltidbits.com

 

[GaWx]

Merry Flamin TorchmasView attachment 97120

We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.

 

[Tarheel1]

We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run.

Feel like we’re losing the cold look for early January, where as a few days ago, we were looking good, -epo, and all that jazz

 

[Webberweather53]

Do you have a source for the parameters that define the RMM MJO? I have worked on slicing data over a certain region, which you could use to track the MJO from the VP200 over SLP anomalies from that area. I don't know if my thoughts would work as I don't have a full understanding of the dynamics behind the MJO as you do. It gives me a headache thinking about yet again downloading 20MB of data to complete a project like this.

Yeah there's a lot that goes into it, you have to understanding filtering techniques like bandpass filtering and how to remove harmonics from the seasonal cycle (I'm weak on this admittedly) as well as ENSO. RMM utilizes OLRa, U200, and U850 w/ seasonally varying EOFs

 

[SD]

We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.

Yep models have moved toward more of a classic SER look with the western trough shifted east vs the central US ridge of a few days ago.

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

We’re not going to get into the cold without first getting into the warmth in this kind of pattern.

Speaking of warmth, the 12Z Euro is also a warmer run. Great news for getting outside and having fun.

Warmth in winter is a lot more tolerable than in summer.

 

[cyclogent]

once this pattern flips, I wouldn't be surprised if the I-10 corridor sees a legit wintry threat before the I-20 to I-40 corridors do.

 

[WEATHERBOYROY]

I think the NWS airport thermometer must be broken. I'm 5 miles from there and it is 45 degrees here??

Hourly Weather Roundup (100 PM CST TUE DEC 07 2021)

Location Sky/Weather Temp (°F) Dewpt (°F) RH (%) Wind (mph) Pressure (inHg) Remarks

Alexander City CLOUDY 48 °F 39 °F 71 % CALM 30.09F N/A

Anniston CLOUDY 47 °F 32 °F 56 % NE3 30.12F N/A

Auburn CLOUDY 51 °F 41 °F 68 % NW3 30.11F N/A

Bessemer CLOUDY 46 °F 30 °F 53 % N3 30.11F N/A

Birmingham CLOUDY 58 °F 30 °F 34 % NE5 30.11F N/A?????????????

Demopolis CLOUDY 46 °F 37 °F 71 % MISG 30.11F N/A

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Wednesday 7am

 

[accu35]

Once we get our pattern change, it will come at the best time of the year in January.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

That’s a massive sub tropical ridge, the CONUS is gonna have the warmest anomalies in the NH

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Christmas roast