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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

ForsythSnow said:
Anyone notice the Euro has a strong high at the end of the run? Looks like it may be taking what the GFS has been.
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CMC has a 1060 coming down at the end of its run too.



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Webberweather53 said:
It's pretty hilarious to watch each successive GFS run grow warmer in the medium range over the contiguous US, the Monin-Obukhov (1948) surface layer parameterization in the model is hurting its forecasts over snow cover even in the northern tier of the US and south-central Canada and is making them way too cold...
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Hey Webb, I know you were right, but looking at it objectively really doesn't help because you're just going to go back to being boring warm with no snow and rain. I know it's fantasy land but looking objectively doesn't make it much better it just hurts that it's that freaking hard to get snow down here bro. Just saying. I don't know how you deal with it.
 
EPS looks really good and the EURO weeklies look pretty good, for a while, but we better score by Jan 10th! After that it shows a 1989-90 type flip to a torch for the rest of January and I expect most of Feb too until some cold comes back in early March. Lot can change by then but it does fit the La Nina template
 
Yep, the Euro weeklies pretty much put an end to winter by mid January and the canonical blowtorch commences soon thereafter. As soon as the ridge over Alaska and the Northwest Territories retrogrades westward (due to planetary vorticity advection) and has dissipated over NE Eurasia, a trough begins to build in the means and becomes firmly established by late January over the NW territories and Alaska. I'm a little more hesitant than usual to be completely sold on this solution given how persistent the Siberian Vortex has been this year, if it wasn't for this feature anchoring the ridge over Alaska and the Northeast Pacific (the vortex in Siberia was fed in part by the extensive Eurasian snow cover earlier this fall), our pattern would have sucked moose balls and we'd already be torching... Time is certainly of the essence for us to score a winter storm in the Carolinas.
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MichaelJ said:
EPS looks really good and the EURO weeklies look pretty good, for a while, but we better score by Jan 10th! After that it shows a 1989-90 type flip to a torch for the rest of January and I expect most of Feb too until some cold comes back in early March. Lot can change by then but it does fit the La Nina template
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Seeing as the models can’t figure out what’s happening next week I’m not to worried about what they show for next month. I know I know I’m being biased because of my love for cold weather but I’m praying this years NINA doesn’t follow climo come January and February.
 
olhausen said:
Seeing as the models can’t figure out what’s happening next week I’m not to worried about what they show for next month. I know I know I’m being biased because of my love for cold weather but I’m praying this years NINA doesn’t follow climo come January and February.
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I really don't trust models in the long range. They have failed too many times.
 
olhausen said:
Seeing as the models can’t figure out what’s happening next week I’m not to worried about what they show for next month. I know I know I’m being biased because of my love for cold weather but I’m praying this years NINA doesn’t follow climo come January and February.
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Basically, not much has transpired as the pundits would have had one believe last winter and a good bit of this, so your prayers may be received with some mercy ...
 
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GFS and NAM ain't folding with that plains shortwave around hour 84.. ECMWF/CMC has it cut off/very amped... GFS and NAM kinda just take it along without digging it too much.
 
WeatherWatch said:
No one should trust any model in the long range, they have limited skill. Taking things at face value in the long range sometimes will fail.
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Which is why I think it's silly and pointless for people like TWC and Accuweather to put out seasonal forecasts. It's just stupid IMO. I know some businesses may rely on seasonal forecasts, but they are so inaccurate that they are not worth looking at.
 
This could work if it digs, it’s no doubt further west vs the gfs ... too bad it’s the nam as bouncy pointed out
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Storm5 said:
This could work if it digs, it’s no doubt further west vs the gfs ... too bad it’s the nam as bouncy pointed out
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I'll say this I didn't go run by run... but at end of day last storm NAM was pretty much right and others including GFS followed and sucked up till 24 hours till
 
If the secondary s/w moves in faster and a little deeper, there'll almost certainly be an earlier bloom. And models CONTINUE to trend towards that solution.
 
Really not buying the Euro here... It's been behind with this system and, in reality, GFS has been much better with trends. EURO is following GFS
 
Storm5 said:
This could work if it digs, it’s no doubt further west vs the gfs ... too bad it’s the nam as bouncy pointed out
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NAM is the new King! Believe dat!
 
I think that wave will start to dig as the lower heights progress south and east via PV. As that's going on, the western ridge builds, leading the trough to more of a positive tilt as it makes it's way over towards Lee of the Rockies.
 
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
 
Webberweather53 said:
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
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Webberweather53 said:
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
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It's also interesting how some are heatmongers and seem to be happy if the vast majority want cold and winter weather and it doesn't happen. That's what's odd here, I don't get it, but it's constant.
 
Webberweather53 said:
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
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I’m good with a flip mid January . All we heard all summer from many in the weather community was how horrible winter was gonna be DJF . So far that hasn’t been the case so I’d take 6-7 weeks of beating the odds . That’s a huge win
 
Webberweather53 said:
This change to a much warmer pattern over the eastern US has been consistently moving up in the Euro weeklies for the past few weeks and is about to get inside week 3-4... It's funny how many will look at the models and trust them when it shows a solution they want (even if its a few weeks or so out) then completely disregard if their solution is just as legitimate but depicts a lot of warmth...
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We cling to the models with the most blue. That's how we roll. All in
 
Stormlover said:
It's also interesting how some are heatmongers and seem to be happy if the vast majority want cold and winter weather and it doesn't happen. That's what's odd here, I don't get it, but it's constant.
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Liked X 10000000
 
Personally I wouldn't mind if it wasn't cold by January 11th because of what I'll be doing for school purposes and I'm not sure I can really do anything to at least make it a little more comfortable for me when it's really cold.
 
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