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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Stormlover said:
It's also interesting how some are heatmongers and seem to be happy if the vast majority want cold and winter weather and it doesn't happen. That's what's odd here, I don't get it, but it's constant.
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I can't help the fact you're getting butthurt every time I mention the possibility for warmth in the longer term or in the climate for that matter. Maybe you should go whine about it in banter instead of clogging this December discussion with nonsense.
 
EPS continues to bang the drum for a cold week after Christmas
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For what it's worth, and to show I'm not a "warmonger" (lol) even with the flip to warmth after mid month on the weeklies we still manage to salvage a near normal January and the -WPO NINA Januarys seem to support this idea with cold in the north-central tier and virtually no net signal further south. It's a toss up in general if not I'd go above normal out of respect for NINA climo and the fact that the Euro weeklies climatology is based on a warmer base period than the 1981-2010 WMO standard, but it definitely looks better for wintry weather in the front half of January. We need to score early and often...

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Storm5 said:
I’m good with a flip mid January . All we heard all summer from many in the weather community was how horrible winter was gonna be DJF . So far that hasn’t been the case so I’d take 6-7 weeks of beating the odds . That’s a huge win
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Hey I'll take my 9-10 inches and head into spring very happy should it be that way.
 
Weather, specifically, winter and tropical weather has been a hobby/habit of mine since I was a kid in Birmingham wanting it to snow. As a kid, I developed a relationship with a neighbor that worked at the NWS, JB Elliot, who mentored me while in school. Life happens and I didn't end up in my desired field of Meteorology but did quite OK for myself.

That being said, I am 50 now and honestly, I am amazed at anyone who puts almost ANY stock in forecasting beyond 10 days. I have seen very little accuracy in long range forecasting in the 70's and no better in 2017 (December to be dry and warm they said..LOL). Euro weeklies can certainly be considered a tool but so can those weird wrench things that IKEA sends to assemble furniture. Honestly, the best thing a hobbyist can do is understand pattern recognition and not hug the models so closely. I can't tell you what will happen in mid-January and February no better or worse than anyone else can because its a proverbial flip of a coin. Enough guesses. someone will be close to being correct (LUCKY). What I will say is IF that high pressure materializes like advertised, pay attention to the entry point into the lower 48 and then look to the west and see where the STJ is oriented. Blend it with the crapola models and your guess will be just as good as anyone else's in the mid to long-term. I really think the possibilities look pretty damn good until the New Year at least.

Don't let someone rob your joy of dreaming and tracking brothers and sisters. The chase is a lot of the fun.
 
One of the things that always puzzles me — and you see it winter after winter — is that when a poster or posters speculate (speculate being the operative word here) on how cold the upcoming pattern is likely to be or even wish upon a star for it to be so, most other posters high five that. I do too. I love cold weather and trying to figure out how it can get cold.

But the thing that puzzles me is that when it’s the other way around, and somebody talks about warmth or even actually wants warmth, some posters get legitimately agitated at best and angry at worst. That is just weird behavior. And it’s inconsistent.

I mean, I’d rather have cold every day of the week, but it is no worse in reality to speculate or wish for warmth than it is to do so for cold. If you get offended by someone discussing potential warmth and not by someone discussing potential cold, particularly when they, at the very least, have similar probabilities of verifying, then you’re not being very honest.

I’m not talking about anyone in particular here. But if you observe, you will notice this phenomenon within virtually any weather board you visit. It’s puzzling behavior.
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Weather, specifically, winter and tropical weather has been a hobby/habit of mine since I was a kid in Birmingham wanting it to snow. As a kid, I developed a relationship with a neighbor that worked at the NWS, JB Elliot, who mentored me while in school. Life happens and I didn't end up in my desired field of Meteorology but did quite OK for myself.

That being said, I am 50 now and honestly, I am amazed at anyone who puts almost ANY stock in forecasting beyond 10 days. I have seen very little accuracy in long range forecasting in the 70's and no better in 2017 (December to be dry and warm they said..LOL). Euro weeklies can certainly be considered a tool but so can those weird wrench things that IKEA sends to assemble furniture. Honestly, the best thing a hobbyist can do is understand pattern recognition and not hug the models so closely. I can't tell you what will happen in mid-January and February no better or worse than anyone else can because its a proverbial flip of a coin. Enough guesses. someone will be close to being correct (LUCKY). What I will say is IF that high pressure materializes like advertised, pay attention to the entry point into the lower 48 and then look to the west and see where the STJ is oriented. Blend it with the crapola models and your guess will be just as good as anyone else's in the mid to long-term. I really think the possibilities look pretty damn good until the New Year at least.

Don't let someone rob your joy of dreaming and tracking brothers and sisters. The chase is a lot of the fun.
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So well said.
Grew up watching George Winterling on Channel 4 in Jax, who explained the weather in detail and so that a pedestrian could understand. Wish there was more of that around today. Anyway, he hooked me at an early age; been studying ever since. One thing is for sure, every "solution" presents about a dozen monkey wrenches hidden in the works; just many folks don't recognize those variables that could make or break any outlook. I chose a profession that abhors blind speculation, and that aversion also serves well in watching weather. If there is one thing that does seem to ring true (as "true" as a best guess can be anyway), is watch the trends.
Off the soap box, but what a great post DixieBlizzard!
Best,
Phil
 
Rain Cold said:
One of the things that always puzzles me — and you see it winter after winter — is that when a poster or posters speculate (speculate being the operative word here) on how cold the upcoming pattern is likely to be or even wish upon a star for it to be so, most other posters high five that. I do too. I love cold weather and trying to figure out how it can get cold.

But the thing that puzzles me is that when it’s the other way around, and somebody talks about warmth or even actually wants warmth, some posters get legitimately agitated at best and angry at worst. That is just weird behavior. And it’s inconsistent.

I mean, I’d rather have cold every day of the week, but it is no worse in reality to speculate or wish for warmth than it is to do so for cold. If you get offended by someone discussing potential warmth and not by someone discussing potential cold, particularly when they, at the very least, have similar probabilities of verifying, then you’re not being very honest.

I’m not talking about anyone in particular here. But if you observe, you will notice this phenomenon within virtually any weather board you visit. It’s puzzling behavior.
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RC it's like telling me there isn't a Santa Claus, I know it's true, but don't ruin it for me ;) (that's a winky face b/c I'm kidding in case anyone was doubting that lol)
 
Rain Cold said:
But the thing that puzzles me is that when it’s the other way around, and somebody talks about warmth or even actually wants warmth, some posters get legitimately agitated at best and angry at worst. That is just weird behavior. And it’s inconsistent.
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I laughed at this because it is so true. I think what it is, the posters that get agitated at the mere mention of warmer weather are easily identifiable and some of the others being realistic love to get under their skin. Let's face it, it's an easy game when you live in the South and want to aggravate the poor guys who want it cold 24/7/365.
 
Storm5 said:
I’m good with a flip mid January . All we heard all summer from many in the weather community was how horrible winter was gonna be DJF . So far that hasn’t been the case so I’d take 6-7 weeks of beating the odds . That’s a huge win
Click to expand...

One of the few pieces of hope I have that we can maybe stave off the stereotypical NINA climatology is how intense the Alaskan ridge has been in the means over the past several winters. The combination of increasing Indian forcing due to disproportionate warming there vs the rest of the globe and the extensive Siberian snowpack have aided in keeping this ridge anchored in/around Alaska since 2012-13 and there doesn't appear to be any signs of that changing. The strong vortex over Northeastern Siberia that's coupled w/ this extensive snowpack has continually been delaying the inevitable intensification of the polar vortex this winter and as I mentioned earlier, this vortex is a big reason we even have this ridge over Alaska to begin with, without it in an EQBO NINA seasonal base state, we'd probably have a big vortex over Alaska right now instead... However background warming coupled w/ an easterly QBO will continue to work in conjunction w/ the NINA to attempt to keep us relatively warm and the ridge suppressed over the NE Pacific...
 
DixieBlizzard said:
Weather, specifically, winter and tropical weather has been a hobby/habit of mine since I was a kid in Birmingham wanting it to snow. As a kid, I developed a relationship with a neighbor that worked at the NWS, JB Elliot, who mentored me while in school. Life happens and I didn't end up in my desired field of Meteorology but did quite OK for myself.

That being said, I am 50 now and honestly, I am amazed at anyone who puts almost ANY stock in forecasting beyond 10 days. I have seen very little accuracy in long range forecasting in the 70's and no better in 2017 (December to be dry and warm they said..LOL). Euro weeklies can certainly be considered a tool but so can those weird wrench things that IKEA sends to assemble furniture. Honestly, the best thing a hobbyist can do is understand pattern recognition and not hug the models so closely. I can't tell you what will happen in mid-January and February no better or worse than anyone else can because its a proverbial flip of a coin. Enough guesses. someone will be close to being correct (LUCKY). What I will say is IF that high pressure materializes like advertised, pay attention to the entry point into the lower 48 and then look to the west and see where the STJ is oriented. Blend it with the crapola models and your guess will be just as good as anyone else's in the mid to long-term. I really think the possibilities look pretty damn good until the New Year at least.

Don't let someone rob your joy of dreaming and tracking brothers and sisters. The chase is a lot of the fun.
Click to expand...
Nice short write up! I don't have a degree in atmospheric science, but I know enough to make accurate forecasts. Anyone that does have a degree doesn't automatically make them more accurate than someone that doesn't have a degree.
 
metwannabe said:
I just penciled you in for this look (I used a pencil so later when this disappears I can erase your name)
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I don't understand why folks are on pins and needles today. Did I miss something? We are looking at a cold turn post Christmas into the new year and everyone is mad. Personally I'm happy to not seen lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s. It sucks and generally doesn't produce anything here but lots of static and dry skin. Give me what the eps has with highs around 40 and I'll take my chances of a system sneaking into a pattern that isn't overbearing

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metwannabe said:
RC it's like telling me there isn't a Santa Claus, I know it's true, but don't ruin it for me ;) (that's a winky face b/c I'm kidding in case anyone was doubting that lol)
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I hear ya man. I put out the milk and cookies every year! :)
 
SD said:
I don't understand why folks are on pins and needles today. Did I miss something? We are looking at a cold turn post Christmas into the new year and everyone is mad. Personally I'm happy to not seen lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s. It sucks and generally doesn't produce anything here but lots of static and dry skin. Give me what the eps has with highs around 40 and I'll take my chances of a system sneaking into a pattern that isn't overbearing

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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I wasn't mad admiral, in fact I agree with you 100%... static, dry skin, protecting pipes and high energy bills no fun especially if no snow to show. You know how it is, the pattern can look great but until blue starts showing on the map they're in panic mode lol
 
WeatherWatch said:
Nice short write up! I don't have a degree in atmospheric science, but I know enough to make accurate forecasts. Anyone that does have a degree doesn't automatically make them more accurate than someone that doesn't have a degree.
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On the whole having a degree signifies that said individual did the work to get to where they are and had to undergo through rigorous classwork, training, had to learn how to code, write, etc. like myself. Occasionally there are is an outlier or two, but the overwhelming majority of meteorologists with degrees are in fact more accurate than those without...
 
SD said:
I don't understand why folks are on pins and needles today. Did I miss something? We are looking at a cold turn post Christmas into the new year and everyone is mad. Personally I'm happy to not seen lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s. It sucks and generally doesn't produce anything here but lots of static and dry skin. Give me what the eps has with highs around 40 and I'll take my chances of a system sneaking into a pattern that isn't overbearing

Sent from my SM-G955U using Tapatalk
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I believe most weather followers just pull for what weather is supposed to do in the seasons, perhaps no logical reason or alligence just snow/cold in winter, severe weather potential in spring, and hot in summer.
 
Webberweather53 said:
On the whole having a degree signifies that said individual did the work to get to where they are and had to undergo through rigorous classwork, training, had to learn how to code, write, etc. like myself. Occasionally there are is an outlier or two, but the overwhelming majority of meteorologists with degrees are in fact more accurate than those without...
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Some of these tv meteorologists I wonder about sometimes. Honestly people like you and a couple of others on here seem to have way more knowledge than most of the tv met's I've seen.
 
Webberweather53 said:
On the whole having a degree signifies that said individual did the work to get to where they are and had to undergo through rigorous classwork, training, had to learn how to code, write, etc. like myself. Occasionally there are is an outlier or two, but the overwhelming majority of meteorologists with degrees are in fact more accurate than those without...
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Yeah, I️ just got into the program this year taking intro to weather and climate, satellite meteorology, and a forecasting seminar class and I️ can tell you I’m definitely learning way more than if I️ just tried to find this information by myself..
 
malak05 said:
I believe most weather followers just pull for what weather is supposed to do in the seasons, perhaps no logical reason or alligence just snow/cold in winter, severe weather potential in spring, and hot in summer.
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Except those who want severe weather literally year-around.
 
Stormlover said:
It's also interesting how some are heatmongers and seem to be happy if the vast majority want cold and winter weather and it doesn't happen. That's what's odd here, I don't get it, but it's constant.
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I think this is a poor assessment of Webb. He seems happy to discuss the outlook whether that be warm, cold or in between. He seems more objective to me in this regard than most here. We're fortunate to have him here to give his unbiased (imo) expertise.
 
Reading this thread is like watching a action movie. I need more pop corn. Blizzard 2018! Book it ! start the thread!.... Nevermind get your sun screen! Santa is coming soon so I’m happy no matter what is the final outcome.
 
Rain Cold said:
One of the things that always puzzles me — and you see it winter after winter — is that when a poster or posters speculate (speculate being the operative word here) on how cold the upcoming pattern is likely to be or even wish upon a star for it to be so, most other posters high five that. I do too. I love cold weather and trying to figure out how it can get cold.

But the thing that puzzles me is that when it’s the other way around, and somebody talks about warmth or even actually wants warmth, some posters get legitimately agitated at best and angry at worst. That is just weird behavior. And it’s inconsistent.

I mean, I’d rather have cold every day of the week, but it is no worse in reality to speculate or wish for warmth than it is to do so for cold. If you get offended by someone discussing potential warmth and not by someone discussing potential cold, particularly when they, at the very least, have similar probabilities of verifying, then you’re not being very honest.

I’m not talking about anyone in particular here. But if you observe, you will notice this phenomenon within virtually any weather board you visit. It’s puzzling behavior.
Click to expand...

It's more of a case of during Winter, we have a limited set of months to have Wintry weather. We have the rest of the year to track warmth. Warmth isn't in a scarcity in the South, so we feel pressure to get it and Wintry weather in a small window compared.
 
Rain Cold said:
One of the things that always puzzles me — and you see it winter after winter — is that when a poster or posters speculate (speculate being the operative word here) on how cold the upcoming pattern is likely to be or even wish upon a star for it to be so, most other posters high five that. I do too. I love cold weather and trying to figure out how it can get cold.

But the thing that puzzles me is that when it’s the other way around, and somebody talks about warmth or even actually wants warmth, some posters get legitimately agitated at best and angry at worst. That is just weird behavior. And it’s inconsistent.

I mean, I’d rather have cold every day of the week, but it is no worse in reality to speculate or wish for warmth than it is to do so for cold. If you get offended by someone discussing potential warmth and not by someone discussing potential cold, particularly when they, at the very least, have similar probabilities of verifying, then you’re not being very honest.

I’m not talking about anyone in particular here. But if you observe, you will notice this phenomenon within virtually any weather board you visit. It’s puzzling behavior.
Click to expand...

I understand what you're saying but I don't think it's that puzzling. If I go with you to your favorite sports team game and while you're cheering for your team, imagine I sit next to you and take every opportunity to tell you and remind you that your team sucks and mine is better than yours, well you may eventually get agitated. I may be right and your team does suck and you know it sucks, but you just want to enjoy the hope of rooting for your team. You may not mind some discussion about my team and how good mine is, but ultimately I'm at your game and I should let you enjoy your game.

The reality is most everybody here on these boards are not academics who enjoy general conversation about the overall science of weather. Most everyone here including myself are snow weenies, plain and simple. So although sure there's some discussion about warmth and the likelihood of it as there should be, to be constantly reminded of the eminent inevitability of warm is essentially contrary to most here's hopes for cold and snow. Thus the agitation.

I'm not saying I care one way or another personally, I take the bad with the good, but I think that's ultimately the rub.

Life is sports.
 
GaWx said:
I think this is a poor assessment of Webb. He seems happy to discuss the outlook whether that be warm, cold or in between. He seems more objective to me in this regard than most here.
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Larry,
Without you and Webb and a few others, it would be an ongoing pandemonium of wishcasting and pure speculation.
So thanks to all but a special thanks to those who keep it honest!
Phil
 
Can't disagree that a Met with his/her studies under their belt are equipped to do their job. That's the way it should be. I am a subject matter expert at what I do but I assume, Webber, you hang around with a bunch of hobbyist because when it gets down to it, you enjoy the banter about a subject that's not exclusive to degreed Mets, the weather. It is, after all, the common thread here. Just don't underestimate the hobbyist either. You can learn from them from past experiences what a text book doesn't teach.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Some of these tv meteorologists I wonder about sometimes. Honestly people like you and a couple of others on here seem to have way more knowledge than most of the tv met's I've seen.
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Broadcast meteorology is a different thing. We have a local guy, by the name of Jim Gandy here, that has been through the legit deal and you can see it in his forecasts, awards, and presentations. A lot of these guys go through "how to decide if it's raining or not and present it in an easy to understand way to tv viewers" class, and then they call themselves Chief Mets.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
Some of these tv meteorologists I wonder about sometimes. Honestly people like you and a couple of others on here seem to have way more knowledge than most of the tv met's I've seen.
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It's hard to really generalize anything in this world to begin with because there are almost always going to be standouts and large outliers, but yes I would agree there are some mets (even ones not on TV) who don't know what they're doing more than half of the time. You honestly have to just put in the time and effort outside of the forums, real-time forecasting, etc. to make yourself better. Your brain is your biggest asset and it's effectively a huge muscle, and like any muscle, you have to give it regular exercise which includes reading scientific papers on a regular basis. Even if you don't know what they're talking about (which I certainly don't on many occasions), it never hurts to ask questions, do a little extra research, etc. Surely it can seem boring and time consuming in the moment but it's time well spent in the long run, especially when you can apply concepts derived from that material in real-time, as I often try to do here on the forums (including the Zheng et al (2017) paper I wrote about yesterday evening wrt the GFS' cold bias at the surface and how it was related to the model's Monin-Obukhov (MO) surface parametrization). It certainly helps broaden your perspective and knowledge basis w/ atmospheric science and other related fields...
 
With all of this collateral discussion going on (of which I am an admitted participant), do I dare even look at the 18Z GFS?
Oh well, deep breath, and here goes ... back to weather and models ...
 
EastAtlwx said:
Yeah, I️ just got into the program this year taking intro to weather and climate, satellite meteorology, and a forecasting seminar class and I️ can tell you I’m definitely learning way more than if I️ just tried to find this information by myself..
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That's awesome I wish u the best of luck in your endeavors and if you ever need anything let me know haha. Btw even if you're not taking the class or aren't explicitly using the book I very highly recommend Gary Lackmann's synoptic meteorology textbook, it's one of my favorite books and I love how it bridges the gap between micro and mesoscale meteorology and climate dynamics (as you could probably imagine from its title).
 
GaWx said:
I think this is a poor assessment of Webb. He seems happy to discuss the outlook whether that be warm, cold or in between. He seems more objective to me in this regard than most here. We're fortunate to have him here to give his unbiased (imo) expertise.
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I will agree to disagree with that, it doesn't seem objective at all to me, seems like an agenda, but problem solved, I learned how to use the ignore function.:cool:
 
1300m said:
I've got a lot of insight on this. I won't call any names but during my time at NWS RAH I encountered one meteorologist who did not know what a backdoor cold front was. You read that right. This individual went on to have two insanely bad busts within the span of two days in Feb 2015. I know of another individual in a high ranking position with the state currently that didn't know how to read a sounding for CAPE upon graduation. Only about 8/25 in my graduation class would I consider more knowledgeable than many on these boards. Perhaps your experience is different and for the sake of our profession and school I hope it is.
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You've got to be kidding me how is that possible lol but as much as I hate to say it, I certainly believe it...
 
SD said:
I don't understand why folks are on pins and needles today. Did I miss something? We are looking at a cold turn post Christmas into the new year and everyone is mad. Personally I'm happy to not seen lows in the single digits and highs in the 20s. It sucks and generally doesn't produce anything here but lots of static and dry skin. Give me what the eps has with highs around 40 and I'll take my chances of a system sneaking into a pattern that isn't overbearing

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thats just it... you didnt miss nothing... lol
 
I think another part adding to the frustration, mine included, is how erratic run to run continuity has been, not with just the GFS but basically everything.

Which takes me straighg back to what I generally say about NINA winters. Generally, NINA winters have raging steroid upper jets and such normally fast flow, guidance is constantly playing catch up...and what do we have right now. Catchup and run to run continuity issues.

A lot, myself included, feel the upgraded (using this very loosely) was a step back over the previous version of the GFS.

For the hobbyist that dives into every run and consistently sees a vastly different solution each run must be a nightmare. Imagine how pro mets feel...imagine just how WFOs and WPC must feel dissecting the information. A forecaster's worse nightmare is obviously having to put out a low confidence forecast IMO.

Take what has been consistent (features, players) and piece together how things should respond meteorologically. Some of these depictions have been downright nutty.

Long story short, I don't think we will have a good grasp until a few days out at best...just way too many moving parts throwing monkey wrenches into the whole equation.
 
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