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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Webberweather53 said:
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I can take the warm shots as long as we get the cold shots, too. I'd rather have a lot of back and forth actually than a prolonged period of either. We can;t get anything when it's too warm, and often if we have a long period of really cold air it's just cold and dry. I think we have more chances at storms when there's a lot of back and forth because it means there's more energy flying around.
 
Euro no go for wintry precip Christmas day but I'm only looking at precip maps on my phone, so not sure if it's close to more or not

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Euro gonna be much different next week vs the gfs
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metwannabe said:
Euro no go for wintry precip Christmas day but I'm only looking at precip maps on my phone, so not sure if it's close to more or not

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Actually may have been fairly close
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It's pretty hilarious to watch each successive GFS run grow warmer in the medium range over the contiguous US, the Monin-Obukhov (1948) surface layer parameterization in the model is hurting its forecasts over snow cover even in the northern tier of the US and south-central Canada and is making them way too cold...
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Shocker Euro has a cutoff in the sw, looks to try and pump a ser... not as cold
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Storm5 said:
No surprise there did the same a few days back with the christmas period . Guess they never did fix the dumping enerergy in the west bias
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I wager eps says op is up to its old tricks as you said and will look much better

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Even the Euro is starting to back down on this cold shot around Christmas, pretty funny once again to see another big cold shot slowly degrade as we enter in the medium range. It has a more substantial blast of arctic air the last few days of the month but we're clearly kicking the can down the road (as usual) so to speak...
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SoutheastRidge said:
If we could just stop looking at models beyond 5 days maybe we could live in reality instead of living in some kind of fantasy world.
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We have to look at the ensembles for pattern changes though. They take time to set up, so usually we can get a good indicator of an upcoming change. The details on the other hand, like how strong the cold would be, is a crapshoot.
 
Webberweather53 said:
It's pretty hilarious to watch each successive GFS run grow warmer in the medium range over the contiguous US, the Monin-Obukhov (1948) surface layer parameterization in the model is hurting its forecasts over snow cover even in the northern tier of the US and south-central Canada and is making them way too cold...
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Not really surprising when have stupid cold runs like we’ve had. Of course it’s gonna warm because those previous runs had no shot at verifying
 
Shawn said:
I think the Euro is always going to have that SW energy cutoff/slow moving bias. As we get closer, you'll notice it finally figures it out. Maybe this time, it will actually happen to make me look stupid, though.
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If that kicks out and does not cutoff that’s a great setup for a tennessee valley special
 
Shawn said:
I think the Euro is always going to have that SW energy cutoff/slow moving bias. As we get closer, you'll notice it finally figures it out. Maybe this time, it will actually happen to make me look stupid, though.
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Hopefully, the Midlands of South Carolina can finally score with a Winter Storm!!
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even the Euro is starting to back down on this cold shot around Christmas, pretty funny once again to see another big cold shot slowly degrade as we enter in the medium range. It has a more substantial blast of arctic air the last few days of the month but we're clearly kicking the can down the road (as usual) so to speak...
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Well, we don't need 1060s to score in the South, a good 1030-1040 high, will get it done! And verbatim, that euro run does look icy in the Carolinas, and it can happen even with an Ohio valley special!
 
Here a block there a block . A slow pressing front with an a cranked up STJ . That’s a look we can all live with
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Great results from the 12z EPS and The GEFS today for Christmas week. Despite being AN today, RDU is BN for Decmber and looks on pace to end DEC BN for the 2cnd month in a row.
 
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