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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SD said:
It's pretty neutral and looking at the map above you could make a case for negative

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Yep. The funny thing is you can use the PNA as a gauge for chances of wintery weather in the SE.
 
Well, it's appearing that this 0z run of the GFS is going to be more interesting. SER is further south and east. ZR/IP to snow? we'll see.
 
The discrepancies between the GFS and Euro in the Western Pacific's monsoon trough are giving me flashbacks to the genesis of what would eventually become Hurricane Harvey out in the central Atlantic. The GFS consistently developed the trailing wave, while the Euro developed what would become Harvey which was the front-running disturbance in the central Atlantic... The Euro ended up spanking the GFS. Similarly it took the GFS ages to bite on Hurricane Franklin's development from the monsoon trough in the W Caribbean, and showed practically nothing until he had already formed and was about to cross the Yucatan. Smh wish we had the old GFS back w/o all these problems w/ the monsoon trough... Just keep this information in mind going forward as we near hurricane season, if there's a chance for development in the Western Caribbean, Yucatan, or Bay of Campeche early or late in the season in association with the Central America Monsoon Gyre and/or a tropical wave in the eastern Atlantic is interacting w/ or emerging from the monsoon trough, please toss the GFS's solution immediately...
 
Either the Arctic air is going to squash the SER or vice versa. I don't think there will be any middle ground like we have seen modeled on the GFS for the past couple of days IMO
 
I think the band of frozen precip. will start expanding further south and east, and then transitioning over to all snow.
 
It's not weird at all for a cutoff to suddenly just stall out and eventually choke off. But before it does there might be a pretty good winter storm event for a lot of the mid south.
 
Getting better for the southeast, starting to think as WeatherWatch has been saying, that this could eventually trend more east in time. Big shift east that run. SER could take a beat some more if this works out right
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
It's not weird at all for a cutoff to suddenly just stall out and eventually choke off. But before it does there might be a pretty good winter storm event for a lot of the mid south.
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Starts out good for the deep south to. Central MS
 
That is fine...I don't like ice. I am take a cold rain but highs in the 50s is fine by me.
 
This run is not going to get it done for MBY but there's no denying that CAD signature that's being picked up run after run after run. We are so damn close
 
Torchtember said:
Fwiw system is moving much faster this run
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Also, the cut off isn't just spinning over Baja Ca. It's actually moving/wobbling very slowly eastward. I think it will start to kick out earlier and earlier on each run as the time period comes closer.
 
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