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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

SD said:
It's Christmas Charlie Brown
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Only 226hrs away


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So we have the 0z GFS that goes gung ho with the typhoon and arrives at a colder solution. And we have the Euro that does virtually nothing with the typhoon and arrives at a colder solution. I don’t see the problem! :D
 
The CMC shows a strong SE ridge but it doesn’t show ice or snow in Texas at all.
 
tennessee storm said:
the euro starting to show a much more progressive pattern with this system... which will not be good for most if this trends keep up... the precip shield will become much weaker in time....
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Assuming most here don't want a warm Xmas, I strongly disagree with your assessment.
 
tennessee storm said:
yeah but also you be patient... you would come more for getting a winter storm system maybe just after the christmas timeframe for folks further east.... got to give to get sometimes
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No offense, but I'd take the 0Z Euro/EPS to end of month over any other 0Z/6Z model with no hesitation. And I maintain that last 10 days of year are about as up in the air as can be for being only 6-15 days out. With a super strong and long -EPO being modeled and a very favorable MJO into 8 that weakens into circle and then moves into weak 1 per EPS, the best at MJO overall, look out for continued big changes from run to run.
 
tennessee storm said:
thing is euro and gfs is sort of worlds apart from each other.... its going to be intersting see which one caves into the other... interesting times perhaps lay ahead...
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To show how undecided the GEFS is right now and though today's day 14 mean is more negative, its day 14 has member AO's varying from +4.5 to -4.5! You can't have a bigger spread than that and I've never seen that. It also has a near record breaking long extreme
-EPO, which it may be handling poorly due to it being so anomalous. It also has an mjo fcast that is so out of synch with the usually much more accurate EPS. The GEFS maintains high amp 6-7 to end of year whereas EPS has it go to 8 12/21, which weakens into circle and then moves into weak 1 (much better chance for cold SE vs GEFS MJO prediction).
 
The cut off may not get cut off after all. It's having some interaction with the northern stream. This is going to speed things up a bit which is good news (for snow) cause it won't allow time for the SER to pump as much.
 
So the cutoff's there on this run but it weakens and is moving. Think that should allow for it to be colder eastward.

It might actually phase with the northern stream, which was there on an earlier run.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
So the cutoff's there on this run but it weakens and is moving. Think that should allow for it to be colder eastward.

It might actually phase with the northern stream, which was there on an earlier run.
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Yes, as long the SW is moving, it will allow colder air to progress south and east. Which will expand the frozen precip.
 
Unfortunately I don't think it's really helping but the good thing is this run might show the 6z as a bit of a blip.
 
Oh good gracious, what a mess out over the SW. Maybe the PV will swipe up the positive tilt trough and bring us the goods.
 
Christmas day still looks interesting with the back energy
 
GaWx said:
To show how undecided the GEFS is right now and though today's day 14 mean is more negative, its day 14 has member AO's varying from +4.5 to -4.5! You can't have a bigger spread than that and I've never seen that. It also has a near record breaking long extreme
-EPO, which it may be handling poorly due to it being so anomalous. It also has an mjo fcast that is so out of synch with the usually much more accurate EPS. The GEFS maintains high amp 6-7 to end of year whereas EPS has it go to 8 12/21, which weakens into circle and then moves into weak 1 (much better chance for cold SE vs GEFS MJO prediction).
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Curious how the GFS over amplification and curving the west Pac typhoon effects it's MJO forecast, I would presume there is some correlation. With that said, great post and information just goes to show the pattern is extremely complicated moving forward and taking one op run over another will leave you heartbroken and a big head ache. Lol
 
Insane battle! Whereas the 0Z Euro, which then has no cutoff and therefore a much colder H5 pattern for the SE, has Xmas 7AM ATL near 35, the 12Z GFS with its persistent SW upper low which cuts off the connection to cold and allows for SER has ATL at an unreal almost 60 at 7AM!!

Don't be surprised if the 12Z Euro is much warmer than the 0Z Euro as that's the typical back and forth of runs. But what will ultimately happen?
 
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Doesn't really matter when we have the 500 mb look we have. Thought this run was better than the 6z...unfortunately it actually backs it up.
 
accu35 said:
Christmas day still looks interesting with the back energy
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Sorry, not really.... if anything IF the GFS were to verify which I doubt it will, we would be talking about possible severe weather Christmas and the day after (which I guess could be considered interesting)
 
It's getting there, things needs to speed up a bit and need to have that south and east shift. APP runner on the 12z GFS.
 
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