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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

JB back on the " Deep South ice and snow train" :(
Just posted on FB about players being on the field for weeks, but first string about to take the field!
 
If that cut off pushes eastward faster, (which I think it will over time) this would allow the cold air at the surface to progress further south and east. If you look at the 500mb height anomalies, as the cut off pushes/wobbles eastward slowly, it's pumping the SER because the cut off isn't moving fast enough. The more quicker the cut off moves eastward = less SER pumping, which would allow more widespread winter precipitation.
 
Brent said:
6 inches of snow here and more moving in Christmas morning

Why does this have to be 9 days out?
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Haha! Yes these runs are still in Oz. As much as I'd like to root for y'all I'm sitting up here with a measly 3/4 of inch total for the month from 3 different "events"! Y'all been spanked already, its my turn:D My average is about 28 inches a year and my board is at 18 inches total.... over the last 3! I leave my grass around 4-5 inches tall for winter and it hasn't been completely covered since 2014. I do get my biggest snows with App runners but I need a stiffer SE ridge than what's currently being modeled. This far out is of course meaningless except for the trends. We get inside 5 days and see where they forecast this cutoff, if its still even there. Models and cutoffs just don't get along at all. Regardless good luck, keep the ice down there and maybe we can keep the southern track and get a nice northern streamer on the backside so it'll be a white Xmas for all! ;)
 
I'm going to be around for tonight's 0z Euro run. When is the thread starting? I think Sunday or Monday will be good time.
 
1300m said:
This is a dangerous game to start speculating on this far out, but I am 100% sure if the 00z GFS solution verified that would have been a much stronger CAD wedge and ice event in NC. Dewpoints should have been lower, CAD would have been stronger, and then once precipitation fell into wedge it would have held on much longer. Really doesn't matter much now until the large scale gets figured out, but there's no doubt the GFS post-truncation is struggling mightily to resolve the depth and stength of CAD with that look and that much dry air.
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I fully agree
 
How much diff is not having SW cutoff/much weaker SER on this run? Much of E SC/NC/GA is a whopping 25-30 degrees colder on Xmas morning vs 12Z run!!
 
Check please.

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  1. SN parts of NC Xmas thanks to weaker SER. Stay tuned, folks. Much more uncertainty than normal with this ultra strong -EPO. Will the SW cutoff really be weaker/nonpersistent as this run suggests? Implications huge.
 
12Z Euro: much of E NC/SC/GA 20-25 warmer than normal Xmas AM or 63-8. On 0Z, they're 5 colder than norm or 38!

Much of E TN/NC/SC/GA/AL/N FL 20 colder 12/24-5 on 0Z Euro run vs 12Z. Prepare for more big jumps up and down until the consensus figures this out. Near record breaking -EPO means lots of uncertainty!
 
yeah the Euro has been one extreme to another honestly lol

for here dry last night, then a near blizzard at 12z, and now dry again
 
0Z EPS concurs with sig colder changes SE US 12/22-5+ due to much weaker SW cutoff & SER. Buckle your seatbelts. Models may not know how to handle extreme -EPO well too far in advance. Then there's the issue with typhoon modeling per Webb. Forget about individual SE storms. The SE US setup is so much up in the air starting next weekend.
 
Euro vs GFS
 
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