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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Not for the faint of heart haha.... let's see what the GEFS, Euro and next 20k GFS runs show

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If the 12z Euro shows the good again, then ill know gfs is struggling.
 
Sorry, with the GFS being REALLY goofy as well as being unable to handle the Typhoon's in the Pacific, I toss it out. I mean all of it, the 0z, 6z, 12z and the upcoming 18z. Got to go with the EURO as having the most likely solution (although it will likely change some too)
 
On Christmas Day, the GFS has 850's torching into Philly. On the same day, the euro has the 850 zero line down through NC into upstate SC towards the gulf coast

*insert face palm emoji*
 
A little confusing to me is the GFS developing 2 TC in western Pac recurving while the CMC has one that heads west into Philippines with no recurve but both suck for us.

edit: actually upon second look, the CMC is much faster with the west pac typhoon (Georgia Girl just alluded to this), the GFS actually gets colder after the TC recurve... anyone's guess at this point
 
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accu35 said:
If the 12z Euro shows the good again, then ill know gfs is struggling.
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I don't need to see the EURO or anything else to know the GFS is struggling.

The only thing we feel are on the table...the -EPO mega ridge and a push of arctic air south at some point. An EPO index showing extremely low just argues for a colder sweep down South historically.
 
Christmas fun and games for parts of the South...About all you can say right now


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Stormsfury said:
I don't need to see the EURO or anything else to know the GFS is struggling.

The only thing we feel are on the table...the -EPO mega ridge and a push of arctic air south at some point. An EPO index showing extremely low just argues for a colder sweep down South historically.
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If the EPO goes as negative as forecast I'll take my chances of the arctic air bleeding much further S and SE then models currently depict...
 
whatalife said:
I’ll just go with hr 384 on the GFS


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That New Year day storm , is money! Brick start the thread!
Befor hat, just your avg, run of the mill, 1057mb high sliding down the plains
 
I can see central MS and possibility central Al in play "IF" the artic air is a greater push. Still over a week away.
 
Right or wrong the GFS has had a similar solution for every run for days and days. The 12z has Arkansas and West Tennessee in ice/sleet for near 80 hours.
 
Invest 97W doesn't look half bad atm southeast of the Philippines, models have absolutely no clue what to do w/ it the next several days, even the ensemble suites have changed a lot from run-to-run in their depiction of this potential forthcoming tropical cyclone... It's also pretty obvious a lot of the upper level outflow associated w/ both Kai-Tak and 97W is being directed into the North Pacific Jet over and just east of Japan.

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And like I've said it's not really odd for a cutoff to stall and choke off. Hopefully it doesn't though, as when it's just turned and turned it's fueled the SE ridge bigtime.
 
NWTNWX said:
Right or wrong the GFS has had a similar solution for every run for days and days. The 12z has Arkansas and West Tennessee in ice/sleet for near 80 hours.
Click to expand...

Yeah at least the gfs has mostly kept similar ideas the euro has been from one extreme to another and no consistency yet
 
The Christmas system has the potential to become a widespread winter event imo. Have to watch for the south and east shift. With that strong arctic high coming down, look out.
 
Remember this past Wednesday, on the 18z GFS it showed that widespread freezing rain? That solution isn't out if the question. If things speed up a bit and if that arctic high comes down further south and east, this system can turn out to be very dangerous.
 
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