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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

I don't have the good maps and weather.us is not user friendly for me (which says a lot as I'm good with computers), so I'll just have to read y'all's pbp.

So seems like the Euro is going to be way different than the GFS.
 
Torchtember said:
12z Euro Arctic air really doing a number on the SER through hour 168. Let's see if it fights back in the next couple of frames
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Looks like it may just blast through, hopefully slows up some and if any energy coming down the backside can spur up some mischief otherwise we are back to no winter storm and cold and dry...
 
metwannabe said:
Looks like it may just blast through, hopefully slows up some and if any energy coming down the backside can spur up some mischief otherwise we are back to no winter storm and cold and dry...
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Will take that, any day ! Warm torchmasses, are no Bueno
 
Storm5 said:
12z Euro might have light snow for many Christmas day
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Mercy this has potential...
ecmwf_ptype_conus_198.png
 
Most of the cold gets dumped initially into the Rockies & the Plains, leftovers for the SE US verbatim as it bleeds eastward through and beyond truncation...
ecmwf_t2m_anom_conus_216.png
 
Webber beat me to it. The moisture isn't very healthy either looking into Day 8/9 bleeding further east. The fact the EURO pretty much dumps most of the very strong surface high into the Rockies causes a slow bleedover into the SE
 
Euro completely dropped development of 97W this run, yesterday's 12z developed it into a big hurricane, this morning's 0z had a small typhoon emerging from the eastern edge of the monsoon trough, the most recent run has nothing in general, even the king apparently has absolutely no idea what to do w/ this invest at the moment...
 
The 12Z Euro has merely a +50 dm anomaly at H5 (-EPO) at hour 216 in NW Can. This run was unsurpringly warmer for the SE vs its 0Z but it is still much colder than the GFS for Xmas and I expect the 0Z Euro tonight will be colder than this. Sooooo much potential as even this run shows huge potential (+50 dm -EPO ridge omg!).
 
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Stormsfury said:
Eh...need one not so tall and narrow..
Wish I could upload 198 hr 500mb heights image...but apparently I need a storespace to do so
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Exactly. We need that Ridge farther east and thicker. The EPO being off the charts negative, means little if the PNA is neutral to negative and allows the trough to drop into the west. This "Cold air bleeding east" works out for us once out of a hundred times.
 
Arcc said:
Exactly. We need that Ridge farther east and thicker. The EPO being off the charts negative, means little if the PNA is neutral to negative and allows the trough to drop into the west. This "Cold air bleeding east" works out for us once out of a hundred times.
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The PNA doesn't really "allow" or force anything in the most basic sense of the definition of a mid-latitude teleconnection, it's merely representative of larger-scale forcings that modulate it
 
Arcc said:
Exactly. We need that Ridge farther east and thicker. The EPO being off the charts negative, means little if the PNA is neutral to negative and allows the trough to drop into the west. This "Cold air bleeding east" works out for us once out of a hundred times.
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Well here's what you would want for a massive arctic dump with such a strong -EPO.

https://www.weather.gov/ddc/December1983ArcticOutbreak
 
GaWx said:
Make that a +53.46 dm (+534.6 m) anomaly -EPO ridge at hour 198!! Holy moly! This is no ordinary -EPO ridge!
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It shore does make for some boring weather! :(
Unless you enjoy watching Amarillo get a few days with highs in the teens
 
I still think the correction will be more of the trof digging SE. I think the euro is trying to correct itself from getting stuck in the SW. That trof near Hawaii should keep it moving.
 
Arcc said:
Of course.
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There's no reason to be snippy about this. The PNA represents a common recurring mode of Rossby Wave juxtaposition over the Pacific-North American sector that's superimposed onto the mean standing planetary waves that are set in place by large mountain ranges and continental configurations. The PNA itself is an index that represents the behavior of these Rossby Waves, to say that this index is "forcing" anything is incorrect because it's just an indicator of other physical mechanisms and phenomena that drive it, but to say something qualitative about the Rossby Waves that comprise it for ex. gives more meaningful information...
 
Webberweather53 said:
There's no reason to be snippy about this. The PNA represents a common recurring mode of Rossby Wave juxtaposition over the Pacific-North American sector, the PNA itself is an index that represents the behavior of these Rossby Waves, to say that this index is "forcing" anything is incorrect because it's just an indicator of other physical mechanisms and phenomena that drive it, but to say something qualitative about the Rossby Waves that comprise it for ex. gives something more meaningful...
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I'm not being snippy at all. I was being simplistic on a term. Most people know what I meant. It's also easier to post on a mobile phone that spell checks you into the crazy house.

I posted of course in agreement to you, because you are right about the PNA being just a term for what is shown. However, it saves me a bunch of time making a quick post to say it like I did. If we take out simple ways to say something, we will need to use five or six sentences instead of using the term "warm nose".
 
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