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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

The thing is, this wasn't a blip...since Christmas came into the picture, outside of a few runs (maybe just 3), it's shown warm weather. Maybe the few runs are the truth...it is after all still past truncation but still.
 
Webberweather53 said:
We'll see if it gets to phase 8 and 1 that quickly, I'm really doubtful given the canoncial NWP biases (even the EPS) of pushing the MJO too fast across the tropics and the fact that this really isn't an MJO event to begin with, but just an enhancement of the low frequency ENSO base state, makes me extremely skeptical. It's just as, if not more probable the tropical forcing never makes it that far as it enters the unfavorable, descending portion of the Walker Cell, and we end up w/ negligible projection onto the MJO's 2 leading EOFs with the forcing milling around where it is now...
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Indeed, we'll see. Very appropriate words as usual when it comes to wx forecasting. Even the most accurate MJO model, the EPS, can be wrong with the MJO. Furthermore, even an extremely strong -EPO with weak phase 8 along with +PNA can for whatever reason not get the cold into the SE because there are few absolutes with the wx. But I'd still love to have that combo and take my chances.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, we'll see. Very appropriate words as usual when it comes to wx forecasting. Even the most accurate MJO model, the EPS, can be wrong with the MJO. Furthermore, even an extremely strong -EPO with weak phase 8 along with +PNA can for whatever reason not get the cold into the SE because there are few absolutes with the wx. But I'd still love to have that combo and take my chances.
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Larry,
As you know, down here, chances are all we have!
Phil
 
I am not ready to declare an incoming blizzard nor an early Spring based on a couple of model runs. Chances are the winter will even out with warm weather for part of Dec/Jan and a colder 2-3 week period mid Jan to early Feb. After that it likely will be very warm the rest of Feb. but winter will perhaps leave us a week of itself again sometime in March before the real Spring takes hold. People forget that an average temperature regime consists of below and above normal periods in weather and this one will likely be the same.
 
With what we see with a Nina, it's unlikely we see a February at all. First half of January is likely our last chance, outside of maybe a place like North TN.
 
GFS 12z , not looking great at the beginning! Around the 20th there's a brief, transient cold shot, then back to warm in the SE. SE ridge is there! :(
 
I don't think the 12z is gonna get it done. SER is fighting that Arctic air. In early frames cold air seems to be stuck in the middle of the country and to our north into Canada. Christmas looks to be sunny and beautiful. Pretty solid model agreement at this juncture imo
 
This run is improved imo vs the 0Z/6Z though not as good as the 18Z at least so far. If only that SW US energy weren't so strong. And it is weaker and cutting off on this run.
 
This 12z GFS run may turn out to be another big ice storm for the SE US. Like last night's 18z GFS run.
 
If the Arctic air is going to overpower the SER it will have to be in one of these next 2 frames (comparing to 18z cold run yesterday)
 
The ridge is definatley less stout this run compared to the last 2. Maybe some middle ground. No torch on Christmas but maybe mid 50's with a nice warm wind out of the south
 
This run allowed cold air further south that's why we're seeing the line of wintry weather pop up from mid Texas through northern Louisiana into Mississippi. Frozen precip was in Oklahoma and North Texas the last couple of runs. Good trends
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not a good set up for the rest of the SE, once that look sets up!
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Regardless, the main point is not necessarily what this runs shows as that is still way out in time/crapshoot, especially since this is just a GFS operational run rather than an ensemble mean. The main takeaway for me is to note how different this run is vs the prior 2 though not all the way back to the great 18Z run. There's obviously larger than normal uncertainties as we head toward 12/22+.
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not a good set up for the rest of the SE, once that look sets up!
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Well, a 1037 high moving in tandem with the next batch of moisture, could get it done!? Better than mega torch
 
Yup this won't get it done outside of the western part of the southeast and mid south but it's better than another Midwest run which is the main point.
 
Not that the details are that important for the reason stated earlier, but it actually looks like this run has a little ZR in W NC.
 
At least it's better. Just have to see what happens with the runs the next few days.
 
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

So a likely stronger than modeled CAD setup for NC/SC with that 1037 HP overtop in a perfect spot.. and then a monster 1045 nosing down directly behind it
 
Still have a long ways too go, the SER could be gone on later runs, things shift south, and we end up with a big snow storm. All possibilities are still all laid out on the table. We could end up having ZR/IP over to all snow. Either way, the way it's looking like, we could have a dangerous winter storm on our hands.
 
If we can squash out the last 200 miles of the SER then we are in business. This could be yuge. Need that Arctic boundary to push further towards the southeastern coast
 
These battle ground overuning events are going to be the theme this winter. Alot of us lucked up with the 1st one this season. I'd say it's a strong signal another showdown is coming up around Christmas day. Hopefully it sets up in the same neighborhood (preferably east) of the last one. But if SER pushes back hard enough and we miss, we'll get another couple shots in JAN. Think JAN 2000, la Nina winter was really for the birds, with the exception of a 10 day stretch being on the right side of the battleground,stationary front overruning dual.
 
Not a bad run (vs prior 2) at all. More importantly imo, let's see if there is also a good change on the 12Z GEFS. Regardless, we still have a good ways to go before we know the fate of the potential SER.
 
Cary_Snow95 said:
gfs_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_42.png

So a likely stronger than modeled CAD setup for NC/SC with that 1037 HP overtop in a perfect spot.. and then a monster 1045 nosing down directly behind it
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Yeah, that's really close to me for ice, but like you said the CAD could be stronger than shown.
 
GaWx said:
Not a bad run (vs prior 2) at all. More importantly imo, let's see if there is also a good change on the 12Z GEFS. Regardless, we still have a good ways to go before we know the fate of the potential SER.
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Larry, do you remember if we saw the same behavior in the models during the 2014 -EPO? Trying to remember if that was the year the SER would show up long range and get squashed once we got closer.
 
GaStorm said:
Larry, do you remember if we saw the same behavior in the models during the 2014 -EPO? Trying to remember if that was the year the SER would show up long range and get squashed once we got closer.
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I don't recall. I guess someone could find the Jan 2014 thread at AmericanWx and find out that way. Anyone want to do it?
 
I think this run represents the best case scenario for that storm. The SE ridge is going to make everything cut west of the apps, putting the SE on the wrong side of the storm. Even with CAD you may get some icing at the onset but then as the storm moves closer and more north, the warm layers scours out the cold. I'm starting to think there's a good likelihood for a storm here, but probably nothing wintery for mby.

That ridge has to die. Or be a wussy little noodle ridge, just enough to push some moisture up our way.
 
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