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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaStorm said:
Until we get to closer or within truncation there is no way to know the ridge will even be close to what is shown on the models. I'm also glad there is no more major ice threat since it's a bad time for that. I still think there will be more winter mischief to be seen considering how extreme our weather has been lately.
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Yeah, seems we either have one extreme or the other. Either a big storm like the last one for AL, GA, and SC, or nothing at all.
 
DadOfJax said:
Going to be nice to have a warm up around Christmas. Makes traveling much more enjoyable. If there's no chance for snow, then pump that ridge as much as you can. Shorts weather is fine with me for a while.
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Couldn’t agree more.


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Kylo said:
I tend to agree with you. This was the patterns leading up to two of Raleigh's biggest snow storms. We have a way of getting big events in Nina's for whatever reason.



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Yes, it hit 70 the week before the Carolina Crusher in Jan 2000, and was in the 60s just a few days before. It went from 70 to 30s the next day, back up to 60s a few days before, and then the storm came. Things can change quickly here, one extreme to the other.
 
SoutheastRidge said:
You and I both saw like 5 times our average snowfall so we have no room to complain about any warmth or lack of snow the rest of the winter.
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I agree with you, and if you read my post earlier then you would know i am thankful for what we had already lol. Some ppl on here are wanting warm weather it seems just because the models are showing SER. Every summer we hear ppl complain about how hot it is, and our winters have been horrible lately. So i wouldn't mind if we had a winter with cold blocking all around with 2 or 3 winterstorms thrown in there, but in reality it wont happen prob. We deserve cold all around with these sucky ass winters we been having lol.
 
If I lived in parts of LA, MS, GA and NC. I wouldn't even complain. Most of you all have already seen 2-3 winters worth of snow from that last storm. It's us in SC that should be the ones whining the most. Lol
 
Robert West said:
If I lived in parts of LA, MS, GA and NC. I wouldn't even complain. Most of you all have already seen 2-3 winters worth of snow from that last storm. It's us in SC that should be the ones whining the most. Lol
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You wont see me whining. I saw the arguably the greatest snowstorm of my lifetime in West Georgia. Im rooting for everyone in the Carolinas and TN to get their big snow. Still lots of time. Its not even winter !
 
Robert West said:
If I lived in parts of LA, MS, GA and NC. I wouldn't even complain. Most of you all have already seen 2-3 winters worth of snow from that last storm. It's us in SC that should be the ones whining the most. Lol
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You forgot Alabama lol
 
All this talk about it becoming a torch, don't worry the CMC will save us! Latest CMC does have the SER, but it gets broken down. The battle zone makes it down into the SE US. I think the battle zone will be further south and east, verses what the latest 6z GFS OP. The GFS OP runs have been so crazy lately, it's hard to take anything of what it shows.
 
WeatherWatch said:
All this talk about it becoming a torch, don't worry the CMC will save us! Latest CMC does have the SER, but it gets broken down. The battle zone makes it down into the SE US. I think the battle zone will be further south and east, verses what the latest 6z GFS OP. The GFS OP runs have been so crazy lately, it's hard to take anything of what it shows.
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What about the GEFS, Euro, EPS?....they all crazy too? Pretty good agreement its about to warm up for a while.
 
DadOfJax said:
What about the GEFS, Euro, EPS?....they all crazy too? Pretty good agreement its about to warm up for a while.
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Robert West said:
If I lived in parts of LA, MS, GA and NC. I wouldn't even complain. Most of you all have already seen 2-3 winters worth of snow from that last storm. It's us in SC that should be the ones whining the most. Lol
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Well for me, bump a winter storm tbh, I just want a cold christmas for a change. It felt like April on Christmas in 2015 & 16, especially '15 because it was so god awfully muggy that day.

Okay, I do want another winter storm but that's besides the point lol
 
accu35 said:
To be real about things, most of us have already scored last week. I heard over and over if we can get 1 snow then will call it the winter, LOL!! We all know we want more, its the love and passion inside that craves for more. This is a very addictive and you have to really love weather to follow every modle run. So im bless to have an early snow and for that im fine, but a big part of me still wants one more.
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Yeah I definitely want more than 1 to 2 inches.
 
I was fine seeing some snow fall for a few hours last Saturday since it was so early in December. I'll be fine if we don't get any snow the rest of the month. But once we hit January, I am going to get annoyed if it doesn't look like there's any snow coming this way. And I mean a good storm with at least a couple of inches of actual accumulation.
 
Well, folks, the good news is that the just updated (12/14 0Z) EPS forecast for the MJO maintains it reaching phase 8 on 12/21 just like the 12/12 run had. Furthermore, it then has it remaining in phase 8 for a good while (through 12/27) while weakening it (it moves to the coldest when averaged out under amplitude 1 or inside the circle in phase 8) before then moving it into weak (under amp 1 or inside circle) phase 1 on 12/28. When averaged out over many decades, an extremely strong -EPO (and what's forecasted is certainly extreme and near record breaking) combined with a weak phase 8 would be cold in the SE UNLESS the PNA were negative. Well, the PNA is forecasted to be somewhat positive per the GEFS giving us a great combo for the Pacific (though the AO/NAO positive). So, I don't think we've necessarily seen the last model waffle.
 
Mean while, the latest Euro monthly, 500mb height anomalies, on Christmas Eve, show the PV over the NE US down to the mid-Atlantic, ridge over the Plains. Battle zone from TN, northern AL, GA and the Carolina's. Good news, no SER, but there's some ridging nosing down through MS, central to southern AL and down into FL.
 
The latest Euro monthly control looks exciting. Some cold blasts, warm ups, some close hits of winter storms. Don't let this warm up and the SER freak you out. This winter is far from over, and this winter is going to be a wild ride for sure.
 
I'm going to be concerned if the 12z holds serve. Because overall outside of a run here and there it's been consistent on another warm, maybe very warm Christmas and the SE Ridge.

Not going to lose hope on the first half of January, however.
 
Storm5 said:
I think it will be cold this month, next month or maybe January. I kmow for sure sometime in 2018
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It could also be warm this month and/or maybe the next or in Spring. One thing we know for certain, which allows us to assume, that maybe all or part or none of this winter will yield good or bad results.
 
GaWx said:
Well, folks, the good news is that the just updated (12/14 0Z) EPS forecast for the MJO maintains it reaching phase 8 on 12/21 just like the 12/12 run had. Furthermore, it then has it remaining in phase 8 for a good while (through 12/27) while weakening it (it moves to the coldest when averaged out under amplitude 1 or inside the circle in phase 8) before then moving it into weak (under amp 1 or inside circle) phase 1 on 12/28. When averaged out over many decades, an extremely strong -EPO (and what's forecasted is certainly extreme and near record breaking) combined with a weak phase 8 would be cold in the SE UNLESS the PNA were negative. Well, the PNA is forecasted to be somewhat positive per the GEFS giving us a great combo for the Pacific (though the AO/NAO positive). So, I don't think we've necessarily seen the last model waffle.
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We'll see if it gets to phase 8 and 1 that quickly, I'm really doubtful given the canoncial NWP biases (even the EPS) of pushing the MJO too fast across the tropics and the fact that this really isn't an MJO event to begin with, but just an enhancement of the low frequency ENSO base state, makes me extremely skeptical. It's just as, if not more probable the tropical forcing never makes it that far as it enters the unfavorable, descending portion of the Walker Cell, and we end up w/ negligible projection onto the MJO's 2 leading EOFs with the forcing milling around where it is now...
 
For now, I wouldn't say it's going to be a warm Christmas or a cold Christmas because it's still a good ways out. But, it makes you wonder since the last 2 Christmas' have been warm, what's the odds of this Christmas being warm? I mean, the odds are against us, but they say that the 3rd time is the charm right?
 
I think these last few runs by the models showing the SER around Christmas are just blips on the model screen...Models will eventually go back to the trough in the East idea...Fun and games around Christmas IMO!! Stay tuned
 
I imagine we will have a pretty good idea in the next day or two whether it will be a warm or cold Christmas or somewhere in between.
 
Flurry said:
I think these last few runs by the models showing the SER around Christmas are just blips on the model screen...Models will eventually go back to the trough in the East idea...Fun and games around Christmas IMO!! Stay tuned
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Yeah, but all it takes is a couple of runs, or even one, for people to jump ship. Too far out to count on every run or even two being anything like what you want.
 
Storm5 said:
Ok this run is for Larry. Let's get the epo down to around- 5!!!
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I'm hopeful per the strong -EPO in concert with hopefully getting MJO weak phase 8 (we'll see) and a somewhat +PNA (i.e., great Pacific combo) despite a +AO/+NAO, but even if the 12Z models were to not waffle back to no SER, it of course may still take several runs as you know. So, caution advised even if the 12Z run still has the strong SER even though we wouldn't be happy.

Edited
 
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