Analogs for similar 12/1-15 AO's going back to 1950 with similar ENSO (centered on weak La Nina) suggest that 12/16-31's AO will likely be at least down to -1.5 and quite possibly down to -2.0 or lower as the 3 best ENSO/AO analogs of 1995 (-2.8), 2000 (-3.7), and 2005 (-2.3) suggest. The #1 analog when considering QBO, ENSO, and -AO of late Nov and early Dec. is 2000 and it had AO of -3.7 during 12/16-31, 3rd most negative AO to the -4.9 of 2009 and the -3.9 of 2010. That would favor a continuation of solid cold dominating the E US through the end of the month.
These 3 best AO/ENSO analogs favor a solidly cold month in the SE US. KATL and KRDU, for example, averaged 5 below normal for the average of the 3 months while KSAV averaged 4 below. Considering the mild start, that would make for quite the cold last 3 weeks or so.
Moreover, a month potentially as cold (8 colder than normal) and snowy (ATL, GSP, and Chattanooga 3"; Asheville 6") as Dec of 2000 is on the table as that is my number one analog.
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