• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Much better run, this "potential" storm will be a monster in someone yard
 
  • Like
Reactions: IWC
gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_40.png
CMC coming around.
 
GaWx said:
Here is the AmericanWx winter thread page from around 1/15/2014, when we were 10 days from the strong -EPO peak. Anyone have time and enough curioisity to go through this? this may tell us a lot.

https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/42156-winter-2013-14-pattern-discussion-ii/?page=44

Edit: 12Z GEFS looks better than last 3 runs
Click to expand...
Found this to be interesting from December 2013 by Jon.
Anyone care about the pattern or do you think the death ridge is locked in for the LR?

At least the 12z GFS and the 00z Euro control runs are showing the opposite, with the 12z GFS ens control with a deep trough over east coast and PV under Hudson bay valid day 10 on the 00z Euro control...stills tries to put a tiny trough under the east coast at that time frame, however with that cold and the blocking on top I don't see it just sitting there...Yesterday's GEFs controls (and previous days for that matter) had a huge death ridge over the east coast valid same time period Jan 10th...A little hope for the weenie to hold on to.

I think the 1/03 fantasy storm model mayhem has got a lot of you down, go outside for a bit or something and come back for the 00z runs.
default_smile.png
 
And it might not turn out to be a winter storm here, but I think when the models are having big changes from run to run and differences from each other it can signal a big storm on the way.
 
What a battle between the Heat Miser and Snow Miser! This run of the GEFS looks to keep many in the SE seasonal or just below normal temps from hr 210 all the way to the end of the run with plenty of cold air to follow into January it seems. And if the cold line is in the right spot, someone will get an overrunning, probably icy, look. Either that, or we torch. Not a lot of in between in this setup. That's why so many of us are jumpy!
 
pcbjr said:
Larry,
I'll leave my back yard out of the discussion ... o_O
Phil
Click to expand...

What this is showing for your backyard, my backyard, and for that matter even Brick's backyard aren't important here. The trend for the SE US in general is what it is important and it is a significantly colder run for the SE, including all of out backyards as a whole vs earlier runs even if not yet colder than normal. The day 6-15 12Z GEFS is near normal overall for the SE thanks to weaker SER vs it being warmer than normal on at least the last 3 runs due to stronger SER.
 
GaWx said:
What this is showing for your backyard, my backyard, and for that matter even Brick's backyard aren't important here. The trend for the SE US in general is what it is important and it is a significantly colder run for the SE, including all of out backyards as a whole vs earlier runs even if not yet colder than normal. The day 6-15 12Z GEFS is near normal overall for the SE thanks to weaker SER vs it being warmer than normal on at least the last 3 runs due to stronger SER.
Click to expand...
;)

You got my drift, I see!
 
GaWx said:
Anyone do this yet? I don't have time but it may be helpful.
Click to expand...
Larry, I copied a post from Jon leading up to that time frame earlier. Not sure if you saw it? Also, page 4 has a map that almost looks identical with the ridge we saw on earlier runs. Maybe the EPO will save us again.
 
GaStorm said:
Larry, I copied a post from Jon leading up to that time frame earlier. Not sure if you saw it? Also, page 4 has a map that almost looks identical with the ridge we saw on earlier runs. Maybe the EPO will save us again.
Click to expand...

I just saw it. Thank you. That's encouraging. However, I'm still wondering what the commentary was like from mid Jan (where I linked), which was about 10 days before the 1/25/2014 strong -EPO peak. We're also about 10 days out now. Did you look at posts from around Jan 14-18, 2014 yet?

Meanwhile, 12Z Euro also looking better than its prior run as of hour 150 fwiw.
 
GaWx said:
I just saw it. Thank you. That's encouraging. However, I'm still wondering what the commentary was like from mid Jan (where I linked), which was about 10 days before the 1/25/2014 strong -EPO peak. We're also about 10 days out now. Did you look at posts from around Jan 14-18, 2014 yet?

Meanwhile, 12Z Euro also looking better than its prior run as of hour 150 fwiw.
Click to expand...
Yeah this run will be much improved
 
GaWx said:
I just saw it. Thank you. That's encouraging. However, I'm still wondering what the commentary was like from mid Jan (where I linked), which was about 10 days before the 1/25/2014 strong -EPO peak. We're also about 10 days out now. Did you look at posts from around Jan 14-18, 2014 yet?

Meanwhile, 12Z Euro also looking better than its prior run as of hour 150 fwiw.
Click to expand...
Haven't had time to review the rest of it yet. It's encouraging that the models are at least coming back around from that crazy torch solution earlier.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top