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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

The eps members are very active around Christmas. Most are too warm . But there is a clear signal when looking at the ensembles for some type of system
 
This winter is going to be epic! This winter is over:(
Pretty much what this forum looks like with every model run and I’m not complaining by any means as I love it. Truth is none of us truly know how the winter will play out which is half the fun of following the models all winter while living in the southeast.
 
I'm so glad I don't have to stick around to watch it potentially get really warm around here. Brent is probably one of the few on this blog that will take a setup like this, certainly not bad for north Texas...

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Webberweather53 said:
Same here. It certainly doesnt preclude winter weather here whatsoever but the persistent +NAO will probably shut down big Miller A/coastal threats to the Carolinas, and favor overunning/Miller B
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I tend to think we're going to continue to have predominately +NAO winters until the AMO flips to the cold phase. JMHO
 
cd2play said:
I tend to think we're going to continue to have predominately +NAO winters until the AMO flips to the cold phase. JMHO
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Actually, the last most impressive -NAO regime in the 1960s came during the end of the last major multidecadal +AMO era, if the AMO goes cold for good, the NAO would actually trend even more positive than it already is as was observed from the 1970s thru the 1990s with the NAO steadily becoming more positive overall as the cold regime persisted.
 
cd2play said:
I tend to think we're going to continue to have predominately +NAO winters until the AMO flips to the cold phase. JMHO
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Hadley Cell expansion (i.e. poleward displaced storm track, which favors stronger polar vortex), shift in the mean upward branch of the Hadley Cell (more anomalous upward motion has been observed in the Indian Ocean during the 1990s-2000s which is contributing to a retracted Pacific Jet (thus persistent anticyclones in the NE Pacific/Alaska and a stronger than normal Icelandic Low thru modulation of the mean standing planetary wave pattern and Rossby Wave teleconnection). Melting land and sea ice over the North Atlantic sector of the Arctic and Greenland are also likely contributors to this unusually persistent +NAO regime in spite of the AMO being predominantly positive unlike we saw in the 1990s
 
Well, Brent, here ya go ...

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pcbjr said:
Well, Brent, here ya go ...
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heh, forget the temps, above normal precip would be news here alone.... fires have been starting its been so dry since Harvey

that's one reason I've been skeptical of a storm(pretty convinced the cold is coming), because it's been hard to even get a good rain...
 
Storm5 said:
So we have the eps vs the gefs ,geps. This will be fun
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I have a feeling that we will see some influence of the SER. Makes me think that the corridor just northwest of the SE are due their snow/ice. Northern Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/West Tennesse/Ohio Valley. Hopefully we will get another swipe of winter weather in early January. Climo would agree.
 
packfan98 said:
I have a feeling that we will see some influence of the SER. Makes me think that the corridor just northwest of the SE are due their snow/ice. Northern Texas/Oklahoma/Arkansas/West Tennesse/Ohio Valley. Hopefully we will get another swipe of winter weather in early January. Climo would agree.
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I left Georgia with snow still on the ground. Maybe I will bring snow to the snow starved areas of the Ohio Valley ? I just want snow though. No ice.
 
Rain Cold said:
Go with the warmest model suite. It's worked well the past several winters. Ride er till she bucks ya.
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Storm5 said:
I 've seen the eps completely cave before . Taking the warmest model suite is the easy way out being in the southeast . That's no fun lol
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I figure there's no point in following things here in winter if you're just going to go with the worst looking model all the time.
 
Storm5 said:
Well, like the flipping model runs JB is back on our side lol
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Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
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Hey look! A really bad American model and a really bad Canadian model. Speaking of which, there is a Super computer in China that current ranks #1 as of November with over 10 million processor cores! Maybe we should you know, spend money on something worth a damn other than IBM so we stop being the laughing stock of the modeling world, along with the Canadian.

But, that would also require us to use our brains to fix the horrible model algorithms & data assimilation. Darn it!

Edit: Also, that super computer in china is currently mapping out the entire universe. And that's just the beginning they say.
 
You don't have to look terribly far to find major source(s) of unpredictability in this pattern... Typhoon Kai-Tak just east of the Philippines and a strong mixed Rossby-gravity wave in the central Pacific could deposit a considerable amount of momentum into the Pacific jet and ultimately impact the mid-latitude waveguide and placement of large-scale planetary waves here in North America. I'd keep an eye on the progress of these entities because they could ultimately play a very significant role in determining how our pattern shakes out during the last week or so of December and early January

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Euro also has a typhoon developing out of this MRG north of Papua/New Guinea. If you're expecting to find any consistency in the guidance over the coming days-week or so, look somewhere else because you will not find any here as long as there's a decent amount of typhoon activity in the West Pacific throwing heat & momentum fluxes into the right entrance region of the Pacific Jet. If one of these tropical cyclones manages to recurve then it's going to really be a mess trying to sort this all out
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Shawn said:
Hey look! A really bad American model and a really bad Canadian model. Speaking of which, there is a Super computer in China that current ranks #1 as of November with over 10 million processor cores! Maybe we should you know, spend money on something worth a damn other than IBM so we stop being the laughing stock of the modeling world, along with the Canadian.

But, that would also require us to use our brains to fix the horrible model algorithms & data assimilation. Darn it!

Edit: Also, that super computer in china is currently mapping out the entire universe. And that's just the beginning they say.
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.....
Shawn said:
This about sums it up guys:

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So I guess it's a good practice to toss all other guidance ? That's good to know . Let's get rid of everything but the Euro and the eps
 
Storm5 said:
Fwiw... The 12z eps trended better in the LR. It's just much slow vs the GEFS and GEPS
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I agree with this assessment. It is even slightly colder than the 0Z EPS starting at day 8 and that continues through day 15. So, every main model was better to some extent than the respective 0Z runs. I'm actually quite content with this EPS.
 
Storm5 said:
.....

So I guess it's a good practice to toss all other guidance ? That's good to know . Let's get rid of everything but the Euro and the eps
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Most of it, except the higher resolution modeling in the shorter term. If we (the world) put all our resources into the King Euro model, we'd be able to predict the weather better, I am sure of it.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I figure there's no point in following things here in winter if you're just going to go with the worst looking model all the time.
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It was just a bit of banter, Brick. Settle down. There's no meteorological reason to go with the worst model all of the time...although it's hard to deny that it would not have been a decent strategy the last few years.
 
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