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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

GaWx said:
Some light snow for some lucky folks on 12/8 on the 0Z GFS from a clipper!
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I love clippers! This run looks great!
 
The western ridge is taller this run
gfs_z500a_namer_33.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
I love clippers! This run looks great!
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Meh, that clipper probably won't bring much snowfall. The dew points will be very low with the upcoming arctic plunge. The clipper may end up falling apart as it's moving southeastward, and the remnants will just be scatt. light snow showers/flurries.
 
Need to watch for any short waves that make it under the polar low displacement. Those short waves could turn into something big.
 
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This could be interesting.. timing looks decent. Cold air is swinging down and moving with the precip. Curious to see if GFS sticks to its guns on the trend of a cutter.

Edit.. Suppressed and OTS:p
gfs_T850_us_43.png
 
The 0z GFS does have a winter storm days 10-12. The model skips 6 hours because it looses resolution after hr. 240, but the winter system is there.
 
GFS is stupid
 
WeatherWatch said:
Need to watch for any short waves that make it under the polar low displacement. Those short waves could turn into something big.
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Yeah, the most important takeaway from this run is that there is a pattern change on the way with a storm signal, I won't be surprised if we end up tracking something by this time next week.
 
The 0Z Euro starts out with a very nice tall western ridge but it gets flattened considerably later in the run and then looks nothing like the 0Z GFS. Do we toss?
 
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Well, it looks like parts of Mexico may be looking at a stout snowstorm per modeling tonight, lol.
 
LOL this run isn't even as cold as we were in October

Really?

But yet it snows in Mexico

the end of the Euro... where did the cold go??? even Chicago is in the 40s lol
 
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Brent said:
LOL this run isn't even as cold as we were in October

Really?

But yet it snows in Mexico

the end of the Euro... where did the cold go??? even Chicago is in the 40s lol
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Hopefully it is just the Euro's warm bias in play.
 
GaWx said:
As a matter of fact, the 0Z EPS has a stronger western ridge than the 12Z EPS throughout the entire run!
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Well thats good news. I image if the euro would continued to hr 384 it would show some more cold
 
We know the initial setup is likely coming. How high does the Western Ridge get? Will it get as high as the recent GFS runs? Hopefully.
What we don't know is how many times it is going to reload. Do face the fact guys, that it will break down eventually. There is no way it holds on through Winter. Doesn't mean it can't come back, but I think this will be the strongest we see the setup for the remainder of the Winter, so lets hopefully get a couple Wintry threats before we go back to the normal.

Lets not also forget, we can still score without the +PNA -NAO, as many areas have even when Winter seemed dead. It's crazy to think we are becoming greedy over this potential pattern, lol. It's a gift.
 
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