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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

0Z GGEM ice accumulations
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Lol CG and I posted same time

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The look of the ZR amounts from the GGEM is close to reality with the look of the High's strength and position.
 
There are many solutions like the 00z gfs op on the 00z gefs . There are also many solutions that keep the bulk of the frozen precip north of a good portion of the SE with the exception being the Carolinas and Northern Georgia


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decent number of ensembles for CHA to see at least a little sumpin' sumpin'... I'm cool.
 
Shawn said:
You don't really want this situation. It's a lot of ZR/IP(ifyourelucky).
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Yea looking at the individual maps on College DuPage pratcially all of the members that show wintry wx are ZR and some have IP and ZR in Atlanta Metro...a couple also still have hints of a Jan 2-3 system with more of SN look, and looks like few suppressed members to from what I can tell.

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Ya like I said, I'll pass on the major ice possibility. Give me a glaze to .25 at most to look at and I'll be fine, if I even get anything.
 
Shawn said:
You don't really want this situation. It's a lot of ZR/IP(ifyourelucky).
Click to expand...
Is there a place I can ask questions about the gfs model? not sure if it goes here. Will try, just delete if OT.

Looking at 00z GFS 168hr, and looking at the area around ATL... temps are showing in the mid 40s. P is depected as rain with the blue 540 line way up in TN. What am I not looking at right to show a ZR threat? Are the soundings showing info that I am missing? For ex:
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Ukmet will be fun tommorow at 12z. It's starting to get In range where we can track it's end game. So far it's in sync with the other models at 500mb with large scale features. Also curious to see if the Nav can go 2 for 2. Ole ward in in the mtn thread did a great job of pointing it out the last storm and the darn thing nailed it from 4 or 5 days in. Stayed consistent.
 
Most likely on the GFS:

1. If we see this solution, which is far from in stone, with a 1040+ HP and CAD, throw out the temps. Just forget them, your guess is as good as mine as to what happens in a CAD situation (seriously though, mesoscale models will be better when we get closer).
2. Considering the 1040+ HP, if it verifies this system may be further south at verification anyway.
 
I will be shocked if this system trends NW. Those highs mean business and would argue that a further south solution may be coming.


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