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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Robert West said:
That run was the most ridiculous run I’ve seen in the last 24 hours. I’m not saying that just because it doesn’t slam my area either. Shows a storm system stretching from TX to the Carolinas? Doesn’t make sense. Also, I’m all ears on why we would even somewhat get excited for a rain changing to snow event here in the Carolinas. We all know it never pans out. I’m also curious, feel free for anyone to answer this also, why does the GFS show the same thing for SC during every single bogus rain to snow event usually 120+ hrs out? Look at HR 186.. what crock of crap is that? The easy answer is the warm nose.. I understand that. But there has to be some other factor. The mountains hurting the cold air flow to the state? I mean I sick of seeing that look..
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How does an Arctic front draped over the southeast with a SW flow and a pressing PV not make sense???? Classic setup especially for CAD regions
 
IF you were to believe the GFS this system gets going early early Wednesday morning
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Stormsfury said:
Man with two 1040ish highs like that, get ready to walk like a penguin. Absolute Classic CAD structure and signature. Forget thermal schemes as depicted verbatim...this looks like an absolute crush job inbound.
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Now we are dealing with two situations, within a day or two of each other, possibly here in SC.
 
0Z GGEM ice accumulations
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Lol CG and I posted same time

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The look of the ZR amounts from the GGEM is close to reality with the look of the High's strength and position.
 
There are many solutions like the 00z gfs op on the 00z gefs . There are also many solutions that keep the bulk of the frozen precip north of a good portion of the SE with the exception being the Carolinas and Northern Georgia


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decent number of ensembles for CHA to see at least a little sumpin' sumpin'... I'm cool.
 
Shawn said:
You don't really want this situation. It's a lot of ZR/IP(ifyourelucky).
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Yea looking at the individual maps on College DuPage pratcially all of the members that show wintry wx are ZR and some have IP and ZR in Atlanta Metro...a couple also still have hints of a Jan 2-3 system with more of SN look, and looks like few suppressed members to from what I can tell.

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Ya like I said, I'll pass on the major ice possibility. Give me a glaze to .25 at most to look at and I'll be fine, if I even get anything.
 
Shawn said:
You don't really want this situation. It's a lot of ZR/IP(ifyourelucky).
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Is there a place I can ask questions about the gfs model? not sure if it goes here. Will try, just delete if OT.

Looking at 00z GFS 168hr, and looking at the area around ATL... temps are showing in the mid 40s. P is depected as rain with the blue 540 line way up in TN. What am I not looking at right to show a ZR threat? Are the soundings showing info that I am missing? For ex:
AIaoImM.jpg
 
Ukmet will be fun tommorow at 12z. It's starting to get In range where we can track it's end game. So far it's in sync with the other models at 500mb with large scale features. Also curious to see if the Nav can go 2 for 2. Ole ward in in the mtn thread did a great job of pointing it out the last storm and the darn thing nailed it from 4 or 5 days in. Stayed consistent.
 
Most likely on the GFS:

1. If we see this solution, which is far from in stone, with a 1040+ HP and CAD, throw out the temps. Just forget them, your guess is as good as mine as to what happens in a CAD situation (seriously though, mesoscale models will be better when we get closer).
2. Considering the 1040+ HP, if it verifies this system may be further south at verification anyway.
 
I will be shocked if this system trends NW. Those highs mean business and would argue that a further south solution may be coming.


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