• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

Webberweather53 said:
That's insane especially considering it never snows there period lol. Idk it's not as bad of a bust as November 2014 was when they called for rain mixed with snow showers no accumulation and u get 4 inches lmao (granted that forecast was hard af and the snow was more localized vs December 1993)
Click to expand...

If I can find a picture I’ll post it. I remember it quite well because my mother had to push my younger brother outside in spite of him having chickenpox.
 
Meteorologist1999 said:
18Z GFS!! Wow
Click to expand...

Still not in on this yet. Plenty of time for this to drift much further east or north.

weenies.jpg
 
WeatherWatch said:
Well, what about Mount Tambora? that erupted in 1815 and was followed by extremely cold spring and summer in Europe of 1816. Also, Europe had snowfall in June, July and August. It was known as, "the year without summer." I tried to find an H5 height map but I don't think those maps existed during that time. But since Europe was unusually cold, the eastern US probably was as well.

Then there's Krakatau, which erupted in 1883 that generated 20x the amount of volcanic matter released by Mt. St. Helens in 1980. After the eruption, the world experienced unusually cool weather.

Both of those volcanoes are in Indonesia, just like Mount Agung.
Click to expand...

Don,
1. Tambora: I went here to check Charleston, SC, records:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/

Dec 1815: warmer than norm
July 1816: warmer than norm
Aug & Sep 1816: normal
Dec 1816: warmer than normal
Feb 1817: colder than norm
Mar & Apr 1817: warmer than normal
May & June 1817: normal

June of 1816 isn't available. Perhaps that was colder than normal but we don't know. But otherwise, the subsequent 3 months are either warmer than normal or normal. Of the 10 months listed, only one was colder than normal and that not til Feb of 1817 while 5 were warmer than normal. So, at least for Charleston and probably also the SE as a whole, there is no indication of an 1816 year without a summer nor a longer term cooldown.

2. Krakatau: The winter of 1883-4 was, indeed, rather mild as Webb implied. However, January was very cold and the coldest single month in KATL between 1879 and 1894. Also, there was a big sleet storm in Atlanta (4"), Athens (3-5"), and Augusta (3") in early January
 
GaWx said:
Don,
1. Tambora: I went here to check Charleston, SC, records:

https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/IPS/coop/

Dec 1815: warmer than norm
July 1816: warmer than norm
Aug & Sep 1816: normal
Dec 1816: warmer than normal
Feb 1817: colder than norm
Mar & Apr 1817: warmer than normal
May & June 1817: normal

June of 1816 isn't available. Perhaps that was colder than normal but we don't know. But otherwise, the subsequent 3 months are either warmer than normal or normal. Of the 10 months listed, only one was colder than normal and that not til Feb of 1817 while 5 were warmer than normal. So, at least for Charleston and probably also the SE as a whole, there is no indication of an 1816 year without a summer nor a longer term cooldown.

2. Krakatau: The winter of 1883-4 was, indeed, rather mild as Webb implied. However, January was very cold and the coldest single month in KATL between 1879 and 1894. Also, there was a big sleet storm in Atlanta (4"), Athens (3-5"), and Augusta (3") in early January
Click to expand...
Good Lord, the absorption rate does not (and cannot possibly) equal the info rate the past 36 hours ... :confused:
 
Webberweather53 said:
For what it's worth the last 5 EPS control runs in a row have been for all intents and purposes completely out of control in the extended range in some way, shape, or form w/ the cP air that floods the east-central US
View attachment 1618
View attachment 1622
View attachment 1621
View attachment 1620


View attachment 1619
Click to expand...
Good Lord.... If this keeps up all winter,I might need to buy some pants too. No way that forecast verifies... right? Where's Mac to bring us back down to reality.
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Good Lord.... If this keeps up all winter,I might need to buy some pants too. No way that forecast verifies... right?
Click to expand...

Sure, the chances that one particular run of the EPS control won't verify is extremely high, but the cumulative probability that at least one of these extreme forecasts will be within striking distance of the true answer is potentially legitimate...
 
Cad Wedge NC said:
Good Lord.... If this keeps up all winter,I might need to buy some pants too. No way that forecast verifies... right? Where's Mac to bring us back down to reality.
Click to expand...
That 4th map would blow for the Carolinas, and I could see that happening! I've got button fly pants on, until this is 5 days out, instead of 9-15!
 
Robert at WXsouth is watching this closely too. He is thinking things could get interesting later on.; Has a very nice post on Facebook. about it.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top