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Pattern December Dud 👀

Jimmy Hypocracy said:
There’s a wave to our south and a cold airmass right on top of us. Squash city currently. Can we find a way to amplify or phase? Doubt it. But i’ll stand firm in that it’s not nothing
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It's like having two baseball teams riding around on their busses with blind drivers looking for the ball field. But it's better than no teams and no ball field like as is usually the case.
 
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First CAD event of the winter will bring some freezing rain, sleet and light snow to the region. Not sure I expect to see any snow here in Blacksburg but can't bet against the brilliant minds of NWS Blacksburg (I've shadowed there haha).
 
griteater said:
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *

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A lot of this pacific onslaught is also attributable to Indian Ocean convective anomalies, which actually teleconnects to an extended Pacific jet & +EPO/Alaskan vortex in December & is a major contributor to the +U in the subtropics.

Turning off &/or muting the Indian Ocean's influence will be key to slowing the subtropical Jet over East Asia & getting the Pacific jet to retract in this particular case, especially in the absence of El Niño.

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I feel like we do this little rigamarole every winter but I’ll just go ahead and say it anyway. The Canadian almost nuked ENC on that run

Now is the part where y’all chase it to verification and talk about how if it were “X number of miles closer to shore it would be the storm of the century.” And “coastal precip shield should be more expansive.”

I’ll try my best to bitter cast this Christmas miracle to your doorstep.
 
LukeBarrette said:
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First CAD event of the winter will bring some freezing rain, sleet and light snow to the region. Not sure I expect to see any snow here in Blacksburg but can't bet against the brilliant minds of NWS Blacksburg (I've shadowed there haha).
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32 and mostly rain here. Did see a few rain drops bouncing a few minutes ago.
 
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