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Pattern December Dud 👀

griteater said:
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *

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This looks a lot like the overnight op and AI euro. I guess you can find some enthusiasm that this pattern would likely try to build a -nao in early January but with that pac look it would be a miller b hell. I personally think we are getting into the front part of the window where we are going to need to see positive changes at the end of the runs. If we revisit next week and the day 13-16 range is a train wreck with no signs towards a change or building to a change ill be concerned
 
On the brightside from a hemispheric perspective the late hours and days of the 12z gefs/geps is where we want to go. It will take time to build the cold but ural ridge, okhotsk/aleutian low, WC ridge is where we want to go
 
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griteater said:
The Pacific onslaught on this GFS run is just insane. The MJO alone isn’t going to fix that problem. The MJO moving out of the Maritime Continent and across the Pacific (6-7-8) is a process that adds momentum into the Pacific Jet. Having the jet already energized isn’t a good starting point. So, we need to take a step back there before we can move forward. Something has the jet really energized so far here in early winter. You can see here on the 2nd image where the subtropical jet along 30N was weaker than normal from late Oct to early Nov, but has been stronger than normal since late Nov. The MJO has been in 5-6 during that time, not where you would expect to see an extended Pac Jet. Also, there hasn't been strong + East Asian Mtn Torque either. * Throws hands up *

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The +U build up here is really coming from the warmer Indo-Pacific Warm Pool fueling more convection over the Indian Ocean to far West Pacific. This extra convection in a mean sense keeps the subtropical jet active by increasing the meridional temperature gradient in the upper troposphere, especially over the Eastern Hemisphere. The polar vortex visits we’ve had earlier this month in eastern N America also helps to flux westerly momentum equatorward explaining the strong southern jet over the Western Hemisphere too

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This warmer Warm Pool was one of the main reasons why I wasn’t sold on a classic -PNA type winter overall, even if we eventually try to go to that pattern later down the road in say February.

Webberweather53 said:
The one thing that really sticks out to me that has the potential to significantly mute the canonical La Niña -PNA pattern this year & isn't getting a lot of notoriety, is the warm North Indian Ocean.

A warm North Indian Ocean actually favors a positive PNA, in part because the excess convection here adds enough westerly momentum into the Pacific jet to kick the Aleutian ridge closer to the US West Coast.



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Webberweather53 said:
I think we’re just fine in the longer term.

I could see the reverberating impacts of this jet extension hanging around a bit longer than say the euro weeklies are forecasting, delaying the onset of -PNA later in January perhaps.
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Yall please listen to the man. Sheesh.
 
There are multiple ways to get to the +TNH/-EPO pattern that’s very likely lurking around the corner in January.

The difference between the various model suites atm is more of an onset timing & duration question than a question of will it show up or not.

Most pathways back to some semblance of the stereotypical Nina configuration (-PNA) lead us back to the -EPO/+TNH pattern, meaning we will probably have to go through that at some point here.

What we can’t obviously have is an overextended pacific jet that makes everything very mild in N America, but I don’t think there’s enough additional gas in the tank/westerly momentum to make that happen on a consistent basis going forward especially as the MJO becomes muted by enso as it travels towards the central pacific and western hemisphere. If we were in a legitimate El Niño, I’d feel a lot differently about that.
 
Rain Cold said:
Need a deeper trough ans farther north southern energy and either a much faster southern energy or much slower northern trough.
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There’s a wave to our south and a cold airmass right on top of us. Squash city currently. Can we find a way to amplify or phase? Doubt it. But i’ll stand firm in that it’s not nothing
 
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