Pattern December Dud 👀

[Mitch West]

This is actually not a crazy scenario as the pattern wants to put another big high in the northeast <and> with waviness trying to run into it from the west in the fast Pac flow

Normally we score at the tail end of a pattern not the front end so yeh, I definitely agree. Model guidance has teased at this for a couple days now.

 

[Rain Cold]

This is probably a good thing tbh. If we went full fledged into 7-8, the pac jet would stay overextended since those phases favor a extended jet

I don't care. I'd rather be in 7-8-1-2 than in 4-6, where we've been forever in winters lately, where we know it's going to suck.

 

[Jessy89]

What’s the individual ensembles look like for Christmas Day?


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[1300m]

What’s the individual ensembles look like for Christmas Day?


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EPS is actually worse than it was before.

 

[Jessy89]

EPS is actually worse than it was before.
View attachment 155996
View attachment 155997

Thank you


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[Stormlover]

Christmas beauty from the Euro ;-)

 

[Drizzle Snizzle]

Christmas beauty from the Euro ;-) View attachment 155998

Dang. The forecast high of 57 in Huntsville on Christmas Day may be in jeopardy.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

EC has a high of 29 in CLT on the 23rd. Really cold stuff

 

[Mitch West]

EC has a high of 29 in CLT on the 23rd. Really cold stuff

Euro & EC is definitely frigid for the couple days leading to Christmas.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wouldn’t sleep on the idea of something after the trough moves over. It’s a very big stretch… but if we can slow the EC trough down and consolidate it into a slower, wound up vortex, we could luck out. Just would need a corresponding favorable wave from the PT

 

[NCSNOW]

I got atleast Ashe-tray colored on 13 Eps nembers. See where it goes from here next few cycles.

 

[NCSNOW]

12z Canadian Ensemble

 

[SimeonNC]

EPS is actually worse than it was before.
View attachment 155996
View attachment 155997

The fact that a fair amount of EPS members have snow off the NC coast is encouraging to me, idk why lol

 

[Twister]

 

[1300m]

One would think that if this dramatic trend continues, the next run would be a monster cut off. But we know exactly what will happen - it will reverse course and dig less.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Exactly what I was mentioning. Like this trend right here. EC AI almost looks like the euro now. Slowing down the SE can vortex and shortening wavelengths

 

[1300m]

Exactly what I was mentioning. Like this trend right here. EC AI almost looks like the euro now. Slowing down the SE can vortex and shortening wavelengths View attachment 156012View attachment 156011View attachment 156014View attachment 156013

Ugh, yeah. There's a window forming here. But I'm tired of being bamboozled! We always trend right to the threshold but can never find the key to the gate.

 

[RoddyPiper]

Christmas beauty from the Euro ;-) View attachment 155998

Nice to look at, but will never happen with that setup.

 

[Avalanche]

Ugh, yeah. There's a window forming here. But I'm tired of being bamboozled! We always trend right to the threshold but can never find the key to the gate.
View attachment 156015

We must summons the gatekeeper!!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Ugh, yeah. There's a window forming here. But I'm tired of being bamboozled! We always trend right to the threshold but can never find the key to the gate.
View attachment 156015

We really need to slow down the pattern. The AI is trying (as seen from the colder airmass sticking around longer). I just want to see that at this point. Winter is about threading needles down here, especially as patterns end, and this is no exception. This is the definition of threading the needle, trying to get a wave as the cold and associated troughing is departing, 9/10 it don’t work but it’s always worth taking a look at