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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Check out the widespread much lower H5 for nearly the entire E US on the 12Z GEFS as of 0Z 12/30 helped mainly by the apparently even stronger -NAO:
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I'd like another New Years storm. Stalled out front, impulse comes up it into cold air. Not out of reason...if there's actually a front out there...and if the front stalls...and if a low forms...and if the cold air comes on down... hmmm...about like any southern storm chances....iffy, lol.
 
WE (including me) have been pretty negative about any colder regime coming anytime soon but the PNA (which I think is most important this time of year for colder weather in the SE) has taken an abrupt turn according th the weatherbell charts. These can, and probably will change ma ny times but they are an abrupt departure from what we have been seeing
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WE (including me) have been pretty negative about any colder regime coming anytime soon but the PNA (which I think is most important this time of year for colder weather in the SE) has taken an abrupt turn according th the weatherbell charts. These can, and probably will change ma ny times but they are an abrupt departure from what we have been seeing
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Am I missing something on these charts? They’re showing a -PNA continuing which we’ve had since about Thanksgiving.
 
So there’s a chance it might get cold again this winter and we could see some frozen precip? I’m so confused! I thought winter was over before it began! Sarcasm inserted, to not aggravate some!
 
Ladies and gentlemen, can I have your attention, please? The results are in and we did it. The MJO went back into phase 8 on Dec 15th, the coldest day of the season to date! Let the celebrations begin! The weenies are gonna party like it’s Feb 1899!
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Nearest official reporting station to me (Florence SC) has ticked down to -8.9 departure from average month to date. NBM is still showing 3 BN days ahead mixed in with AN days.

Water temperature is down to 50/51 depending on which buoy you check in the shelf waters off Horry and Brunswick counties. Even out at Frying Pan Shoals the water is 66 which is more like the 2nd week of January. Gulf Stream has jogged further east this year too so I don’t think it’ll warm much near shore.
 
Can’t build fire ant mounds when the ground is chaffed and cracked into a JHS mega drought View attachment 179186View attachment 179187
This is only going to get worse. Voluntary water restrictions starting in SC now with a stage 1 drought declared for Lake Keowee. Most of this board will not remember 1986 but that is where this heading I'm afraid. We were the top national story that summer because of heat and drought. 1989 had been headed that way, but the pattern changed at the last minute. I do not remember a December this dry since 1985 and that led to a dry winter, spring, AND summer.

 
This is only going to get worse. Voluntary water restrictions starting in SC now with a stage 1 drought declared for Lake Keowee. Most of this board will not remember 1986 but that is where this heading I'm afraid. We were the top national story that summer because of heat and drought. 1989 had been headed that way, but the pattern changed at the last minute. I do not remember a December this dry since 1985 and that led to a dry winter, spring, AND summer.

I can see that, we have mostly been bone dry. That southern stream has got to start getting active.
 
I can see that, we have mostly been bone dry. That southern stream has got to start getting active.
I think the negative PNA has a lot to do with that. If we can get a positive PNA going, that will open up the moisture from the southern branch of the jet stream and put that into play for us. If we can get some cold air in conjunction with that, look out.
 
I think the negative PNA has a lot to do with that. If we can get a positive PNA going, that will open up the moisture from the southern branch of the jet stream and put that into play for us. If we can get some cold air in conjunction with that, look out.
Yeahhhhh except there’s no sign of it going positive. Oh and don’t worry if it did you better believe that -nao will disappear.
 
Ha, yeah I’d say that’s the very definition of a retrograding block bullying the pattern. It has a Christmas 2010 look to it aloft

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Starting to have that effect on the ens as well, starting to see some more west based -NAO tendencies esp on the EPS, also the pacific is trying to slow a bit, the more you can tuck that low near the PNW more back into the GOAK, the more amplified the pattern can get, I’d honestly take my chances with a big 50/50 low or Atlantic low hanging right near the EC and send a wave toward it 🤷 IMG_0846.gifIMG_0847.gifIMG_0843.gifIMG_0844.gif
 
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6z traditional GFS also hinting at something around 1/2. Also, the AI GFS is now available on tropical tidbits.


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Yeah the GFS & Euro are how you’d have to score in this pattern.

Slow-moving cut-off that gets timed up right with a west-based -NAO and 50-50 low. We’d likely have a hefty dose of CAD in the mix no matter how you’d slice it, barring that something actually showed up ofc.

It is the kind of setup that if done properly, would have a really high ceiling because of how slow the pattern is.
 
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