Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Webberweather53]

An important thing to note about this January compared to 2022:

This January honestly looks quite a bit different, big thing being there isn’t a coherent Pacific MJO event & forthcoming +EAMT to give us a more +PNA/+TNH/-NAO type pattern.

Yeah it looks like I picked up on Jan 2022’s progression right on Christmas thereabout.



Did see a few very early hints of Jan 2022 being good as far back as mid-December

 

[Webberweather53]

We’re currently watching an S2S tug-of-war play out between the +AAMa/anomalous westerly flow in the tropical Pacific trying to extend the Pacific Jet vs -EAMT & beta advection from the ridge itself trying to constantly retract the jet and shift the Aleutian high westward.

These 2 things competing against each other plus La Nina is why we have a stationary wave pattern w/ Aleutian ridging in the North Pacific

We honestly need to extend the Pacific Jet again to break this stalemate, because those +AAMa aren’t going anywhere. Hence, retracting the jet doesn’t fix the issue.

 

[KyloG]

You made your point 10 posts ago.

You've always been one of my favorite posters, but I am tired of logging on and seeing passive aggressive strawman-type posts.

This isn't just you. But we're going to put a stop to that. It just makes everybody mad. I'm going to call out every post where I see it from now on.

If you or anyone else has a beef with how someone responds to a post of yours when you are providing good analysis, then PM them and work it out or let the staff know that it's bothering you. Or I can set up a winter battle thread and we can have a free for all.

I am so sick of the constant passive aggressive stuff every time the weather turns bad. It is like clockwork every winter. The staff is going to start muting posters if we don't get that under control.

I don't care if you don't like my posts....that's a you problem. Piss off with your passive aggressive attacks on me...just because you are red tagged doesn't give you the right to directly attack people. I didn't directly attack you or anyone else...

But I get it...sarcasm is lost on the stupid.

 

[NCSNOW]

As of today, Greensboro has had 19 straight days Below Normal on temps. Good chance to make it 20 in a row after today,

For December we are -8.4 Below Normal and recorded a Trace of Snow on 3 separate occasions.

 

[BHS1975]

We’re currently watching an S2S tug-of-war play out between the +AAMa/anomalous westerly flow in the tropical Pacific trying to extend the Pacific Jet vs -EAMT & beta advection from the ridge itself trying to constantly retract the jet and shift the Aleutian high westward.

These 2 things competing against each other plus La Nina is why we have a stationary wave pattern w/ Aleutian ridging in the North Pacific

We honestly need to extend the Pacific Jet again to break this stalemate, because those +AAMa aren’t going anywhere. Hence, retracting the jet doesn’t fix the issue.

View attachment 179144
View attachment 179142

View attachment 179143

Do you think it will extend enough?

 

[Stevo24]

We’re currently watching an S2S tug-of-war play out between the +AAMa/anomalous westerly flow in the tropical Pacific trying to extend the Pacific Jet vs -EAMT & beta advection from the ridge itself trying to constantly retract the jet and shift the Aleutian high westward.

These 2 things competing against each other plus La Nina is why we have a stationary wave pattern w/ Aleutian ridging in the North Pacific

We honestly need to extend the Pacific Jet again to break this stalemate, because those +AAMa aren’t going anywhere. Hence, retracting the jet doesn’t fix the issue.

View attachment 179144
View attachment 179142

View attachment 179143

Could you come in here with some good news for once lol.

 

[Rain Cold]

I don't care if you don't like my posts....that's a you problem. Piss off with your passive aggressive attacks on me...just because you are red tagged doesn't give you the right to directly attack people. I didn't directly attack you or anyone else...

But I get it...sarcasm is lost on the stupid.

 

[NCSNOW]

May the trend continue

 

[GaWx]

May the trend continue

View attachment 179145

The 12Z GFS -NAO for week 2 remained strong:



Per the maps, below, it looks like the 12Z GEFS likely has about as strong a -NAO as the prior 3 runs, if not a little stronger:

Classic NAO calc. is based on pressure anoms diff between Iceland and Azores: I see ~-2.2 std devs:


H5:

 

[GaWx]

Check out the widespread much lower H5 for nearly the entire E US on the 12Z GEFS as of 0Z 12/30 helped mainly by the apparently even stronger -NAO:

 

[jackendrickwx]

for those who care (me)

christmas afternoon wedge/chilly/not AN:
00z EPS --18/50 (36%)
06z AIFS-ENS -- 11/50 (22%)
00z GEFS -- 8/30 (27%)
06z GEFS -- 9/30 (30%)
12z GEFS -- 8/30 (27%)
12z AI-GEFS -- 0/30 (frown %)

side note, welcome to the party, AIGFS and AIGEFS. looks like no snow products from those yet.