Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Tsappfrog20]

So what Jwall just shared does give me some hope hopefully we can get things to work out!!




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[Rain Cold]

So what Jwall just shared does give me some hope hopefully we can get things to work out!!




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This scenario seems like a needle in a haystack to me. The end of the GFS had pretty much all of those main features in those locations and the 850s are boiling hot. And so are surface temps...at least as it relates to snow.

 

[NBAcentel]

I’ve seen enough. Go all in on the Aleutian ridge going poleward, that’s what we got to do. That’s probably the more realistic way to get out of this mess, and even the CFS doesn’t do it till mid Jan
(FYI I can’t believe I’m showing a CFS output, that’s hysterically down bad)

 

[SD]

Don't worry April will change this pattern right to cold

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

Courtesy of Thomas Mabry

 

[jackendrickwx]

What the ----

 

[jackendrickwx]

Temp spreads are nuts right now. At 9:55pm obs

43 durham
34 rdu
26 sanford

42 charlotte
31 gastonia

44 KATL
32 Fulton co

48 clemson
32 pickens
41 GSP

 

[weather bubba]

With the abnormally warm air locked in until through the New Year, at least, I would not be surprised if some of us will be chasing severe weather instead of winter weather if we can get the right atmospheric dynamics. It wouldn't be the first time this has happened.

 

[Tarheel1]

Pics?

 

[Nomanslandva]

Greensboro: Multiple nickel/dime events Jan 1985

Climatological Data for Greensboro Area, NC (ThreadEx) - January 1985
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

1985-01-01	75	46	60.5	20.4	4	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-02	65	48	56.5	16.5	8	0	0.70	0.0	0
1985-01-03	48	32	40.0	0.0	25	0	1.37	0.0	0
1985-01-04	38	32	35.0	-4.9	30	0	0.60	0.0	0
1985-01-05	42	26	34.0	-5.8	31	0	T	T	0
1985-01-06	46	22	34.0	-5.7	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-07	53	32	42.5	2.8	22	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-08	45	30	37.5	-2.1	27	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-09	40	24	32.0	-7.5	33	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-10	30	27	28.5	-11.0	36	0	T	T	0
1985-01-11	47	25	36.0	-3.5	29	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-12	37	22	29.5	-9.9	35	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-13	46	22	34.0	-5.4	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-14	46	20	33.0	-6.4	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-15	36	19	27.5	-11.9	37	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-16	41	15	28.0	-11.4	37	0	T	T	0
1985-01-17	36	28	32.0	-7.4	33	0	0.20	0.5	T
1985-01-18	44	24	34.0	-5.4	31	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-19	49	32	40.5	1.1	24	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-20	36	-6	15.0	-24.5	50	0	0.06	0.5	T
1985-01-21	21	-8	6.5	-33.0	58	0	0.00	0.0	T
1985-01-22	35	4	19.5	-20.1	45	0	0.00	0.0	T
1985-01-23	40	12	26.0	-13.6	39	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-24	47	18	32.5	-7.2	32	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-25	50	24	37.0	-2.8	28	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-26	33	17	25.0	-14.8	40	0	0.00	0.0	0
1985-01-27	39	13	26.0	-13.9	39	0	0.05	T	0
1985-01-28	33	30	31.5	-8.5	33	0	0.31	4.1	T
1985-01-29	36	24	30.0	-10.1	35	0	0.00	0.0	4
1985-01-30	40	28	34.0	-6.3	31	0	0.00	0.0	2
1985-01-31	43	34	38.5	-1.9	26	0	1.05	0.0	T
Sum	1317	716	-	-	992	0	4.34	5.1	-
Average	42.5	23.1	32.8	-6.9	-	-	-	-	0.2
Normal	49.3	30.1	39.7	-	784	0	3.39	2.9

Geeze -8 and -6 that must have been when we set our record up here. I remember my Mach1 fuel line froze twice on the way to college one of those days. Lots of water lines were breaking too. Let's not do quite that again.

 

[HailCore]

This is a forecast in the Carrollton area. But now they took snow out of the forecast.

There was some crazy aggressive single GEFS member showing 6 inches in Atlanta from that storm yesterday, but obviously a substantial outlier. Not sure how that ended up transferring into local weather data/forecasts as that was the only indication that I saw.

 

[GaWx]

I didn’t see anyone talk about the -NAO on steroids on the 18Z GFS for 12/23+, which is understandable since it’s just a GFS run. But look at how much the NAO plunged on it:

12/16 18Z GFS NAO: plunges 12/23


18Z GFS H5 for 12/23:


But what makes this more interesting is the NAO drop on the last few GEFS for the same time: keep in mind this is only 7 days out!

Last 3 GEFS for 12/23:


18Z GEFS NAO: green line is mean


Compare that to the 6Z GEFS NAO: follow the green line (mean)

 

[GaWx]

Interesting 0Z GFS with another strong -NAO building by 12/23:


This later leads to epic changes in the E US in fantasyland with the icebox 12/28+!

 

[Tarheel1]

Paging @Brent !!
Pattern changer! 0z GFS

 

[NBAcentel]

we also somehow pinwheeled the trough around AK back into the pacific pumping a western/Canadian ridge bridge to the -NAO, looks like the Canadian was gonna do the same as well, honestly not a bad look here, almost Nino-ish in nature with the undercutting