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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

Today’s 2 week ensemble MJO forecasts:

-12/5 EPS steady as a rock with a 17+ day long phase 8, second (back to 1974-5) only to the 18 days of 1975-6: a cold E US weenie couldn’t place it any better though keep in mind that the MJO, itself, is only one index of many despite it having notable tendencies:
IMG_5909.png


12/5 GEFS: though not steady like EPS with only a 5 day phase 8 followed by 3 days of weak phase 1 (which also is often cold in Dec) followed by 5 more days in phase 8 and then 4 days barely in phase 7, this is on the whole still favoring dominating cold in the E US:
IMG_5908.png

Related to the very cold Dec forecasts, natural gas is up a whopping 6% today, alone! Knowledgeable NG investors don’t normally go long NG in winter unless the forecast is for a cold E US.
 
Webberweather53 said:
There’s definitely adequate forcing for ascent here on Monday and it’s really cold aloft, so anything that legitimately falls even outside the mtns would largely be in the form of snow even if there’s maybe a little rain mixed in here or there

View attachment 178068

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Very cold in New England this morning and more cold air on the way with some snowpack, that always helps.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
ryanardo said:
Yall need to start a weather forecast bust thread lol
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Not Funny Laughing GIF
 
GaWx said:
Today’s 2 week ensemble MJO forecasts:

-12/5 EPS steady as a rock with a 17+ day long phase 8, second (back to 1974-5) only to the 18 days of 1975-6: a cold E US weenie couldn’t place it any better though keep in mind that the MJO, itself, is only one index of many despite it having notable tendencies:
View attachment 178070


12/5 GEFS: though not steady like EPS with only a 5 day phase 8 followed by 3 days of weak phase 1 (which also is often cold in Dec) followed by 5 more days in phase 8 and then 4 days barely in phase 7, this is on the whole still favoring dominating cold in the E US:
View attachment 178071

Related to the very cold Dec forecasts, natural gas is up a whopping 6% today, alone! Knowledgeable NG investors don’t normally go long NG in winter unless the forecast is for a cold E US.
Click to expand...

The whole MJO thing is for people much smarter than myself, but that is some very impressive agreement in the EPS members.
 
I think Mondays system will be extremely light and will likely turn out much like this one did. My interest is more into the latter part of the week and weekend next week. My biggest fear is that the MJO may be in 8 for a little while and then jump straight into phases 4-5 which is no bueno for the SE.
 
MichaelJ said:
I think Mondays system will be extremely light and will likely turn out much like this one did. My interest is more into the latter part of the week and weekend next week. My biggest fear is that the MJO may be in 8 for a little while and then jump straight into phases 4-5 which is no bueno for the SE.
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Well there’s no indication at all that it would go to 4-5
 
At hour 81:

ecmwf_mslp_pcpn_frzn_seus_27.png
Temps at the surface are cooking.

ecmwf-deterministic-nc-t2m_f-5206000.png
Dews too.

ecmwf-deterministic-nc-dew2m_f-5206000.png
925s above freezing till you get close to the border, but they are cooling.

ecmwf-deterministic-nc-t925-5206000.png
850s are better.
ecmwf-deterministic-nc-t850-5206000.png
So, I guess we could see a rain/snow mix south of the border counties...if the Euro is right. Precip looks light. Of course, this is just looking at the Euro. Short range guidance may reveal a different story as we close in.
 
Not bad. Only real problem I can see with Monday is some of this precip would occur during the middle of the day with insolation fighting the Arctic front a bit.

This is one of those cases where you’ll need to pay attention to wet bulb zero heights for determining p-type

Wet bulb zero heights less than about 1500 feet usually means wet snow at the surface, even if it’s 40F+
IMG_6789.png
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not sure how we can get the Monday system to come back to life....it looks like we might be trending better moisture-wise, but it sure seems reminiscent of this system with no cold air feed until late, surface temps baking and dews in the 30s.
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thoughts here exactly, temps are the issue again
 
The yucky rainy pattern continues here. Luckily during a short break in the light rains yesterday evening, I squeezed in a walk.

Today so far has been different. The rains at times have been heavy, with my measurements suggesting ~0.75”. There’s been enough to be wary of hydroplaning if going too fast. This is the heaviest I’ve seen in several months. Thus, it’s the first minor test of my completed yard drainage projects as well as the city’s redug nearby street drainage ditch project. But it’s still not yet a complete test as I need even heavier rains. Regardless, there will be more on and off rains through Sunday.

My temps have been mainly in the mid to upper 50s after dipping to the rain cooled upper 40s last night. Temps are 12 warmer in Brunswick 75 miles to the S.
 
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