That mega frost Saturday morning is going to be 
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Either AIFS is just completely wrong or it's onto something. Given how EPS and Euro Operational has trended, I am starting to have interest in AIFS with this one.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
18Z Euro OP following suit
The golden standard for winter disasters around here. I can still hear the trees snapping 
NBAcentel
Member
Folding lawn chairs. RDU to moyock boys should be eyes glued 
Remember it well. Woke up asking my wife “who the heck is shooting at this hour?” Then realized it was all the pine trees in our neighborhood snapping in two like matchsticks
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Best winter events we get these days
The sounds of trees snapping that night was surreal. 17 hours straight of light freezing rain and temperatures hovering around 28.
The coastal Louisiana mixed bag is setting the table for the Christmas mega storm in NC. Need to build the ice/snow north and south of you before you cash in!
I hope we can build the snowpack in Florida before Christmas
olhausen
Member
Sleet and zr despite radar showing snow. Baby raccoons came out to play in it!
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Scarier than Hugo and I’ll say that until the day I die
FoothillsWX
Member
1041 over WV? Might snow in Miami.
This ice storm did more damage in my yard and neighborhood than Fran did. The ice accrual did a number on the pine trees in my yard and all up and down the street where I lived. The smell of pine permeated the air where I live for days after the storm.
NCSNOW
Member
Ditto. 1.5 frzng rain with a temp of 23. Sat in dark for 9 days. Whole county lost power. Mall was closed for a week.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
0Z NAM looks like it may be trying to go the way of Euro AI
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Interesting, but if there's one thing I've learned. NEVER TRUST NAM. Euro AI, and euro appearing to trend that way does make it more interesting though. But I'd like to see more support from other ensembles and operational models.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Never trust the NAM alone, but if you get the EE rule, it’s on lock.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yeah that's true as well, although it's certainly not a lock yet. Things are looking interesting but I can also think of similar setups that end up doing nothing at all. I'm unsure what analogs we have of a setup like this, havent looked into analogs yet.
While I never look at the NAM for specifics this far out, I still think it’s a useful tool to look at where it’s H5 set up is trending towards and right now we have the EURO AI, AI ensembles, EURO op and ensembles as well the NAM appearing to go in the same direction
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, looks like we have a credible threat to track. Trends are certainly heading in the right direction.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yeah I agree with this completely, I've been watching this one for a couple days. We'll know a lot more once the vort enters the US. It's still out in the pacific right now. We've got a few days before OBS data.
Have you guys seen the temps over the Midwest right now with the snowpack? Single digits all over.
JP152
Member
Yep. 1.6 at the house right now. About 6 inches on the ground. Only got up to 16 today.
That's awesome. Y'all keep building that snow pack!
It’s been some years since we’ve seen good snowpack in December even in Canada. Honestly this is a way that we can see “homegrown” cold air be cold enough the further into December we go
JP152
Member
Haha, yeah no problem. Never even seems to get to freezing here. WARM tomorrow, looking for 30-31.
This one is going to be tough to pull off for us, even for your corner of NE Ga. Boundary level temps look a bit too warm, and our CAA is from the NW. The only shot is a considerably stronger surface low than looks possible given the current guidance IMO.
C-Money
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Beat me to it. Big nod
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Just to see NC and VA fantasy runs? Nahh
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
A few more tweaks like that will make this interesting
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accu35
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PATTERN FLIPPING TO A MORE ACTIVE/SNOWY SETUP?
Alright, I hear you… WE. WANT. SNOW. (Well… some of you do. The snow-weenies are definitely the loudest.)
There are signs the pattern may finally start bending in your favor. In 8-10 days The EURO and GFS are both hinting at a shift toward a more blocky look over Greenland and the West Coast (outlined below). That’s a notable change from our recent split-flow, zonal, cold-but-quiet pattern. A blockier setup creates a wavier jet, which can help energy consolidate (“bundle”) as it drops into the eastern U.S. — a key ingredient for storm development.
Another big signal: the SOI has gone into a major free fall, which often points to a more energized southern jet stream. The MJO is also shifting convection into the central Pacific — a classic bellwether for a more active storm track in the weeks ahead.
This doesn’t guarantee a snowstorm in the next 10–15 days, but it does suggest the early January pattern could turn much more interesting for winter lovers.
See you at 4am - 10am on PIX11
Alright, I hear you… WE. WANT. SNOW. (Well… some of you do. The snow-weenies are definitely the loudest.)
There are signs the pattern may finally start bending in your favor. In 8-10 days The EURO and GFS are both hinting at a shift toward a more blocky look over Greenland and the West Coast (outlined below). That’s a notable change from our recent split-flow, zonal, cold-but-quiet pattern. A blockier setup creates a wavier jet, which can help energy consolidate (“bundle”) as it drops into the eastern U.S. — a key ingredient for storm development.Another big signal: the SOI has gone into a major free fall, which often points to a more energized southern jet stream. The MJO is also shifting convection into the central Pacific — a classic bellwether for a more active storm track in the weeks ahead.
This doesn’t guarantee a snowstorm in the next 10–15 days, but it does suggest the early January pattern could turn much more interesting for winter lovers.
See you at 4am - 10am on PIX11