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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

packfan98 said:
ICON looks better for you...
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last year featured a lot a lot of threats with high leverage, "big dog" potential that fizzled some after we white knuckled a couple of model suites. it's a breath of fresh air to be looking at an uncomplicated wave with relatively clear winners and losers and low-ish potential
 
RGEM
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packfan98 said:
RGEM
prateptype-imp.us_ma.png
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RGEM little slower with arrival of precip, makes huge difference. Good news: precip usually arrives sooner than progged, bad news: this is an onset wintry changeover to rain scenario. Best case ( east of elevation), car topper that gets washed away within an hour or 2. Worst case 33 and rain, without a single flake, zr or ip. I like the idea of a light wintry mix at onset before rain
 
RBR71 said:
RGEM little slower with arrival of precip, makes huge difference. Good news: precip usually arrives sooner than progged, bad news: this is an onset wintry changeover to rain scenario. Best case ( east of elevation), car topper that gets washed away within an hour or 2. Worst case 33 and rain, without a single flake, zr or ip. I like the idea of a light wintry mix at onset before rain
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Two hour school delay is my high water mark.
 
This does look interesting, got snow in my NWS point forecast. I hadn’t really been paying attention to this threat until now. Expect @BullCityWx to get 1-2” while I get a car topper. 💀
 
LukeBarrette said:
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GFS showing another system
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Euro had this a couple days ago / same time frame. BF posted. It had that 1032 HP parked over Buffalo and did a nice # / snow wise on all of us. We keep throwing darts with these waves coming up from our sw and sooner or latter we will time one just right with a HP. next week was looking like a clipper fest on latest Euro I viewed, so who knows at this point. The upslope areas at the least, should catch a few good ones here real soon if all this chatter keeps up
 
The ensembles have been hinting at this, feel like could be interesting few days coming up.


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Well, at least the pattern is active. Maybe we can score some winter precip out of one the systems. I like seeing a model show a storm more than 7 days out, then lose it, and then pick it back up again inside 5 days. Especially if it's the Euro and if another model picks it up, too, in between the Euro losing it and showing it again. Those scenarios are usually when we end up getting an actual winter storm. Of course, it could end up being cold rain again, but those scenarios usually give us the best chance at winter precip.
 
51098e4c21afe51e154f15204c48ca34.jpg

Why does Euro AI show this weird snow signal in central SC/GA… showing up in nearly all panels.

A bias? Overdoing the CAD?


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ducketta27 said:
51098e4c21afe51e154f15204c48ca34.jpg

Why does Euro AI show this weird snow signal in central SC/GA… showing up in nearly all panels.

A bias? Overdoing the CAD?


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I don't see it on the 06z run from pivotal, but my best guess is it was picking up on another wave of moisture that was being squashed, but cold enough where it reached on the northern fringes, and everything else you see was before, but idk
 
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