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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

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0z euro ensemble was pretty good. Also seeing a threat near the time griteater mentioned gfs and Canadian individual ensemble members had some big hits between the 9-11th


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Really thought we had something brewing on Friday with the euro yesterday. I guess the euro is no longer the king in the medium range lol


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Bigedd09 said:
Really thought we had something brewing on Friday with the euro yesterday. I guess the euro is no longer the king in the medium range lol


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You are dealing with max 2/10ths -3/10ths qpf. Still consistent imo, 50-70 mile shift North or South should be expected from 4 days out with thermal profiles/ BL etc.

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Bigedd09 said:
Really thought we had something brewing on Friday with the euro yesterday. I guess the euro is no longer the king in the medium range lol


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Unfortunately, we encounter the same every year. The models are not going to be able to resolve the nuances that can move the r/s line 50-100 miles or understand where the r/zr line sets up 5 days out. The atmosphere is too complex. From a forecasting standpoint, see if the pattern supports an event and then just use the guidance as guidance until about 3 days, particularly in marginal setups like this, knowing that things are going to bounce around for a while. Then hone in on the details. I'd still be surprised if we end up with a widespread advisory level or higher winter storm. But there are certainly ways it can happen. It's just not easy, as you can see from the precip/lack of precip, cold enough/not cold enough bouncing around. This one is particularly challenging in that we are on a knife's edge getting enough cold air without killing the precip and getting enough precip while maintaining enough cold air.....if you're looking for a major winter storm, that is.
 
6z EPS 0.1” QPF (or ~0.03” ice accrual based on standard ice liquid ratios) ZR probabilities for Fri

Despite a few op euro runs that got some folks hopes up, I’ve always felt that freezing rain would be the big story with this system. Takes very little of that to cause problems around here, esp when it falls in/around the morning commute

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wrapped up my morning forecast. i mean, i have seen worse for our northern foothills friends, who will stand the best chance of getting an early season glance at winter, as always. just gonna be light and messy if anything. no surprises there

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seeing some more long range noise as well this morning on ensembles, as you can see on that wilkes snowgram. i still have some interest for mountain clipper action sunday night into monday as well
 
Ross said:
36 and rain here

3 months ago i was playing golf after work

and supposedly this is the season we're waiting for?
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Isn't it great 🤣

There were places here near 90 2 weeks ago! And I did see 10 minutes of legit snowflakes at 5pm yesterday. Kind of crazy to think about
 
EPS getting a little better over the past few runs for the triad...I like how this winter is starting off. Big events for the Oh-V into the NE and now a little something for 85 corridor into VA. Some winters it just wants to snow...

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Today's weather is awful. Like I always say, give me snow in winter or sunny and warm. Cold rain and cold and dry is just a waste.

Meanwhile, the models are doing their back and forth dance with any type of winter weather here. I guess that's better than not showing any chance at all.
 
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