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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
track is meh, retreating/less than marginal cold air source is womp. Step down process be patient. Strat warm loading. Big frosty special on deck 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
0Z ICON icy for favored CAD areas on 12/2
Brent
Member
The storm Monday is back here on the icon lol after some people gave up on anything interesting 
NBAcentel
Member
Easy to see why the icon is so stout with an ice/sleet event, it has the intial trough that feeds cold air further draped in the NE vs any other model. The further south the better. Unfortunately a outlier 
NBAcentel
Member
Insert wet fart sound 
Brent
Member
More precip here on the GFS 
See I was wondering if the globals are doing their usual lose the storm phase only to come back
See I was wondering if the globals are doing their usual lose the storm phase only to come back
NBAcentel
Member
NBAcentel
Member
Trending to way more wave separation on the Canadian, man if we could drop that leading trough further south we would be talking a big CAD event. The wave separation is increasing QPF/the juice on the event, but the leader is to far north to entrench low level cold for more areas vs climo favored areas 
trackersacker
Member
You right friend
Zero continuity between runs
NBAcentel
Member
Here comes a -NAO starting to show back up on the EPS/AIFS ens 
rburrel2
Member
We really should be rooting for that storm next week to lay down a thick glacier over the Midwest/northeast. That should help improve our odds during the second half of the December 8-1-2 run, plus we’re at solar min so it should stick around a while.
This 100%!!!! It’s been a while since we’ve seen a good healthy December snowpack in place to the north.
Brent
Member
I'm very curious about Monday here.... We haven't seen any accumulation that early since I moved here in 2021
We've barely had any snow at all before January actually and only once during the Arctic front at Christmas 22
Yeah I'm feeling pretty optimistic about December right now even if Monday doesn't pan out
We've barely had any snow at all before January actually and only once during the Arctic front at Christmas 22
Yeah I'm feeling pretty optimistic about December right now even if Monday doesn't pan out
MichaelJ
Member
EURO will eventually continue the move South with its (colder) runs and you can already see some indications of this as posted in GaWX post on the previous page. Euro has a tough time picking up on the cold air until later in the game, especially early in the season. With the volatility being the norm on the deterministic models lately, stick to the ensembles for a more likely scenario
Interesting map.
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It has been a long time since this has been then case. Rooting for it!
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The MJO is in phase 8 on Christmas which bodes well. Could this be a year that gives Central North Carolina a white Christmas?
Some of Earth's most extreme cold may be headed for the US in December
Some forecasters say a complex dance involving the polar vortex could send some of Earth's most extreme cold toward the United States.
www.usatoday.com
Here's an article from the USA Today website that has quotes from Judah Cohen about the upcoming cold that may invade the United States. Bring it on!
Happy Thanksgiving Mark. Maybe we can score us one around Christmas time.
All GEFS/EPS MJO forecasts (2 week and extended) are more favorable with regard to phase 8 vs what was available yesterday.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
So we will be phase 8 around this time here…
Should we expect this trough on the WC to shift east over time?
I think so. I know it’s extremely cliche to say, but everything past like 7 days isn’t reliable at all with how flip floppy everything is. I just don’t think guidance has a clue.
Even if the almost always very unreliable day 15 snapshot doesn’t shift and there’s a trough on the WC on day 15, this is only a day 15 snapshot. What would the days just beyond show? Plus most of the days before day 15 on this run have higher hts WC. We all know that for short periods H5 could vary significantly from the longer term mean.
If the more favorable phase 8 progs today vs yesterday are not enough good news for those who prefer it cold in the E US, I’ve got more:
Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS NAO through 12/10: headed to moderate +NAO
Today’s (11/27) GEFS NAO through 12/11: no +NAO as it stops rising at dead neutral (0):
Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS NAO through 12/10: headed to moderate +NAO
Today’s (11/27) GEFS NAO through 12/11: no +NAO as it stops rising at dead neutral (0):
Very true and of course we’ve already seen modeled WC trough after the other disappear the last several months
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Also just a few days ago it had no -NAO at any time on it.
This morning’s CFS AO forecast
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Thanks. Indeed, even more good trends vs yesterday for cold lovers when looking at the AO:
Yesterday’s (11/26) GEFS AO through 12/10: rose to solid +AO of +1:
Today’s (11/27) GEFS AO is neutral/near 0:
There’s a realistic possibility that the models have been slow to react to a more -AO/-NAO as potential effects of the current SSWE. Why? I have to look no further back than the 2/16/2023 major SSW. Even on the run of the day of that actual strat reversal, the GEFS was still clueless about the impending drop of the NAO late Feb into mid March:
2/16/23 (day of SSWE) GEFS NAO forecast through 3/2/23 was dead neutral (0) through 3/2/23:
Actual daily NAOs: look how the GEFS run from the day of the SSWE was way too positive for Feb 26th-Mar 2nd!
2023 2 16 0.918
2023 2 17 1.051
2023 2 18 1.202
2023 2 19 1.122
2023 2 20 0.775
2023 2 21 0.480
2023 2 22 0.330
2023 2 23 0.157
2023 2 24 0.155
2023 2 25 0.047
2023 2 26 -0.301
2023 2 27 -0.742
2023 2 28 -0.748
2023 3 1 -0.956
2023 3 2 -1.006
2023 3 3 -1.093
2023 3 4 -1.161
2023 3 5 -1.109
2023 3 6 -1.132
2023 3 7 -1.187
2023 3 8 -1.091
2023 3 9 -0.614
2023 3 10 -0.356
2023 3 11 -0.293
2023 3 12 -0.254
The next day and the following days, the GEFS started catching on and had this just 4 days later (2/20/23), which was much closer to what actually happened: this was through Mar 6th:
Similar trends happened with the AO.
The moral of this real-life story? Stay tuned for more potential big NAO/AO drops for mid December!
Daily NAO:
2/16/23 (day of SSWE) GEFS NAO forecast through 3/2/23 was dead neutral (0) through 3/2/23:
Actual daily NAOs: look how the GEFS run from the day of the SSWE was way too positive for Feb 26th-Mar 2nd!
2023 2 16 0.918
2023 2 17 1.051
2023 2 18 1.202
2023 2 19 1.122
2023 2 20 0.775
2023 2 21 0.480
2023 2 22 0.330
2023 2 23 0.157
2023 2 24 0.155
2023 2 25 0.047
2023 2 26 -0.301
2023 2 27 -0.742
2023 2 28 -0.748
2023 3 1 -0.956
2023 3 2 -1.006
2023 3 3 -1.093
2023 3 4 -1.161
2023 3 5 -1.109
2023 3 6 -1.132
2023 3 7 -1.187
2023 3 8 -1.091
2023 3 9 -0.614
2023 3 10 -0.356
2023 3 11 -0.293
2023 3 12 -0.254
The next day and the following days, the GEFS started catching on and had this just 4 days later (2/20/23), which was much closer to what actually happened: this was through Mar 6th:
Similar trends happened with the AO.
The moral of this real-life story? Stay tuned for more potential big NAO/AO drops for mid December!
Daily NAO:
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Sounds like good ole JB. As he said good time Thanksgiving to Christmas best times for now
NBAcentel
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accu35
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I noticed a south trend from the gfs and cmc today with next week storm
NBAcentel
Member
I expect the SE ridge not to be there at all when December the 12th arrives.
But yeah, P7 usually has the trough centered farther east.
It's pretty common for the models to underestimate the magnitude of cold air jamming as we move in. So it's something to watch for sure.
On the other hand, it's hard to buy a south trend in the absence of blocking...particularly if we see signals for an increasingly amped storm.
Fun times ahead!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
It had come south some. But man we need more cold air