Pattern December Discussion

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=ATLWxFan link=topic=2.msg2883#msg2883 date=1482262827]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2882#msg2882 date=1482261618]
Euro is a snoozer

Better than a blowtorch though.


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[/quote]
If call that a win at this point! That could get us into a colder patter the end of the first week of Jan, until having to wait for mid month!

Yeah. It wasn't a terrible run and days 7-10 had some nice developments across the NHEM.
[/quote]

 

[GaWx]

The most reliable MJO forecasting model, the EPS, still more or less has the MJO getting over to the left side of the circle near New Year's. Inside the left side of the circle or barely outside the left side of the circle have had the coldest SE temperatures when all averaged out since 1975 though that, of course, doesn't mean it is always cold. There are sometimes warm periods during MJO phases that average chilly because the MJO is but one of a group of factors.

I don't know if it is a coincidence regarding the EPS MJO prediction for the favorable inside left side of circle, but the brand new EPS looks astoundingly better than the prior run late 6-10 and through the entire 11-15.

 

[Metwannabe]

One of these years we're going to be tracking winter weather instead of pattern changes like the good 'ol days. 

 

[Storm5]

the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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[Tarheel1]

the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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It's never right when it was showing cold patterns these last few years, so hopefully it will continue being wrong!

 

[Storm5]

12z eps starts to build ridging over Alaska and the pole late in the run. sure would be nice but I bet it's being rushed

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[SoutheastRidge]

the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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That's fine, January isn't our month away. February is usually our coldest and snowiest month.

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2888#msg2888 date=1482267525]
the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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That's fine, January isn't our month away. February is usually our coldest and snowiest month.
[/quote]
January is the coldest month of the year for Atlanta and averages the highest amount of precip in the DJF months

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[Webberweather53]

It's not surprising the MJO pulse over the Maritime Continent/West Pacific has suddenly fizzled as it approached western hemisphere given interference with ENSO background, and the wave filtering diagrams are now largely in limbo as the remnants (in the form of CCKWs) is now pushing thru the western hemisphere, if the tropical forcing were to return back into the Indian Ocean/Maritime Continent, we'd likely see the poleward Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge return & start dumping Siberian air into northwestern North America again, which may occur by the 2nd week of January. As if the AO wasnt positive enough in the short-medium range, the overall N hem configuration thru the first week of January is a fairly classic precursor pattern to large-scale +AO/NAO regimes with a formidable Barents/Kara Sea trough & Aleutian ridge dominating. Hence, we can likely assume that the AO will remain positive, and potentially significantly so at that, thru at least mid-January... As far as I'm concerned, apart from the occasional transient continental polar/seasonably cool airmass intrusions, unless the Aleutian ridge gains appreciable amplitude, and migrates poleward & northeastward into Alaska, (which in of itself if is a very risky given the NINA/-ENSO bgd & doesnt fit with canonical far north pacific rossby wave progression)...we're liable to remain above-well above normal for the next 2-3 weeks or so.

 

[GaWx]

12z eps starts to build ridging over Alaska and the pole late in the run. sure would be nice but I bet it's being rushed

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It probably is being rushed since it was a sudden change from its prior runs. However, IF it happens to be right, might we be seeing what happened late Dec/early Jan in 2013-4, another neutral negative ENSO with a strong SE ridge and strongly +AO in Dec.?? I'm not betting on it but this is on the analog table.

 

[Webberweather53]

Pretty interesting freak lake effect snow event occurred earlier today down in Jackson, Mississippi. Definitely will be an interesting case study

 

[SoutheastRidge]

How much snow did Jackson get ? It's 50 degrees there now so I imagine it's gone by now.

 

[Webberweather53]

How much snow did Jackson get ? It's 50 degrees there now so I imagine it's gone by now.

Most reports, pictures, and observations I've seen in the area ranged anywhere from a trace to a dusting, not a huge event, but definitely unexpected and exceptionally unusual for this region

 

[GaWx]

Well, what do you know. Not only was the 12Z EPS a big step in the right direction but also the 18Z GFS looks very nice as the SE ridge exits near 12/27 and doesn't return. Accompanying this are heights that build nicely over the high latitudes. This kind of sudden flip is what happened between Dec of 2013 and Jan of 2014. I might add that the MJO in January of 2014 started off favorably within the left side of the circle, which is similar to the EPS prediction.

So, similar ENSO, Dec. SE ridge/cold much of rest of country , Dec strong +AO, and late Dec MJO to 2013.

 

[Webberweather53]

It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

 

[GaWx]

It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.

 

[Tarheel1]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
[/quote]
Looks to get to normal or below for the SE, from about Dec 30- End of the run of 18z and fairly wet! Almost looks ninoish on that run, with a lot of southern sliders! Keep that going and get some real cold involved and we will be cooking with gas

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Well, what do you know. Not only was the 12Z EPS a big step in the right direction but also the 18Z GFS looks very nice as the SE ridge exits near 12/27 and doesn't return. Accompanying this are heights that build nicely over the high latitudes. This kind of sudden flip is what happened between Dec of 2013 and Jan of 2014. I might add that the MJO in January of 2014 started off favorably within the left side of the circle, which is similar to the EPS prediction.

So, similar ENSO, Dec. SE ridge/cold much of rest of country , Dec strong +AO, and late Dec MJO to 2013.

That's pretty far out but it's not exactly lala land so it may be on to something. It'll be interesting to see if it appears again in the next two days on the model runs.

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
[/quote]

Hope this the pt of some good trends moving forward. At this pt I'm hopeful but not overly optimistic just yet. Let's see how things look after a few more runs...


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[SoutheastRidge]

I find it humerous how the mood swings on this forum from day to day. One day its gloom and doom the next day everyone is excited. Tomorrow will probably be another gloom and doom day.