Pattern December Discussion

[Webberweather53]

The models (esp the GEFS/GFS) are definitely not handling the ACWB (anticyclonic wave breaking) in the North Pacific terribly well. Each run of the EPS/GEFS of late keeps pushing the GOA ridge poleward & slightly to the east, closer to Alaska & NW Canada, aside from the fact that they've been progressively backing down on the Kara Sea/Scandinavian trough in the medium range, which bodes well for the AO in the longer term... Still not a great pattern for wintry wx, but baby steps in the right direction.

 

[Webberweather53]

The models (esp the GEFS/GFS) are definitely not handling the ACWB (anticyclonic wave breaking) in the North Pacific terribly well. Each run of the EPS/GEFS of late keeps pushing the GOA ridge poleward & slightly to the east, closer to Alaska & NW Canada, aside from the fact that they've been progressively backing down on the Kara Sea/Scandinavian trough in the medium range, which bodes well for the AO in the longer term... Still not a great pattern for wintry wx, but baby steps in the right direction.

Don't get me wrong though, we're still liable to end up above-well above average temperature wise thru mid-January, thereafter there's uncertainty, although the risk of a blowtorch will be increasing against climatology as we get into February given the background ENSO/QBO state. Even if this borderline weak NINA event weakens to an upper end cold neutral event as some are hoping for, that won't change the outcome terribly much, if at all... The inter-event variability and sensible wx expressions are so large amongst cool neutral/weak NINA events that they are often indistinguishable from one another, which is certainly not the case for weak NINOs/warm neutral events. ENSO asymmetry ftw!

 

[Metwannabe]

Well at least it's looking more and more likely that the CAD areas won't be a torch for Christmas day, Euro and GFS both struggle to climb out of the 40's.....  I'll take small victories anywhere I can get them.

 

[Tarheel1]

Well at least it's looking more and more likely that the CAD areas won't be a torch for Christmas day, Euro and GFS both struggle to climb out of the 40's.....  I'll take small victories anywhere I can get them.

Both have a colder pattern after about Jan 1st, I'm sure it will be transient, but it's a lot better than having to wait until 15th or later! So as you stated, baby steps! Things are looking a lot better today than they were 3 or 4 days ago! Hopefully not a mirage.

 

[SimeonNC]

Well at least it's looking more and more likely that the CAD areas won't be a torch for Christmas day, Euro and GFS both struggle to climb out of the 40's.....  I'll take small victories anywhere I can get them.

I think we're overusing the term torch lately. A high in the 50's on Christmas day for a lot of areas isn't anywhere near a torch, sure we would all love a cold/snowy Christmas but a Christmas with temps around average isn't a torch. If forecast highs were in the upper 60's and 70's then you would have a point.

 

[Metwannabe]

[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg2942#msg2942 date=1482337438]
Well at least it's looking more and more likely that the CAD areas won't be a torch for Christmas day, Euro and GFS both struggle to climb out of the 40's.....  I'll take small victories anywhere I can get them.

I think we're overusing the term torch lately. A high in the 50's on Christmas day for a lot of areas isn't anywhere near a torch, sure we would all love a cold/snowy Christmas but a Christmas with temps around average isn't a torch. If forecast highs were in the upper 60's and 70's then you would have a point.
[/quote]

I still have a point because at one time the forecast was for upper 60's and in some areas of the SE that is still the forecast

 

[SD]

Thats a nice wedge at D16 on the 12z GFS.

 

[SD]

[quote author=SimeonNC link=topic=2.msg2944#msg2944 date=1482339209]
[quote author=metwannabe link=topic=2.msg2942#msg2942 date=1482337438]
Well at least it's looking more and more likely that the CAD areas won't be a torch for Christmas day, Euro and GFS both struggle to climb out of the 40's.....  I'll take small victories anywhere I can get them.

I think we're overusing the term torch lately. A high in the 50's on Christmas day for a lot of areas isn't anywhere near a torch, sure we would all love a cold/snowy Christmas but a Christmas with temps around average isn't a torch. If forecast highs were in the upper 60's and 70's then you would have a point.
[/quote]

Example

I still have a point because at one time the forecast was for upper 60's and in some areas of the SE that is still the forecast
[/quote]

 

[accu35]

8)Well on Christmas day and day after I'm stuck in the upper 70s low 80s,Go figure!!

 

[dsaur]

[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
[/quote]
  Like my rain switch!  I told you there were mysterious switches being flipped!!  I told ya, lol.  T

 

[GaWx]

[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2901#msg2901 date=1482276017]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
[/quote]
  Like my rain switch!  I told you there were mysterious switches being flipped!!  I told ya, lol.  T
[/quote]

Yes, you most certainly did, Tony! All of the models have continued to come in better since this post! This has to be one of the more pleasant sudden switches from an overall winter pattern standpoint! 2013-4 sudden switch at the same point of winter is very much still on the table of options. i'm wondering if the Alaskan ridge, which is a big part of this change, is largely induced based on the MJO progs.

 

[dsaur]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2891#msg2891 date=1482268812]
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2888#msg2888 date=1482267525]
the CFSV2 will make cold weather fans cry in January if it's correct . #TORCH

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That's fine, January isn't our month away. February is usually our coldest and snowiest month.
[/quote]
January is the coldest month of the year for Atlanta and averages the highest amount of precip in the DJF months

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[/quote]
  S5, I didn't get the 5 inches I got in the first rains when they started back, but I did get another 1.1 out of these last rounds.  I'm so glad the rains have started up again, and seem to be present in the long range.  There is just no way to get sleet and snow, no matter how cold it gets, if it doesn't rain, lol.  After Xmas is when I start looking for frozen in Ga.  I've seen some nice events around New Years...and there is rain out there on the models...so the chances start picking up after this weekend...but if it can't sleet and snow, then let it rain!!!  Tony

 

[dsaur]

[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg2949#msg2949 date=1482341266]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2901#msg2901 date=1482276017]
[quote author=Webberweather53 link=topic=2.msg2900#msg2900 date=1482275722]
It's only one operational run, but that's definitely a pattern you would want to see in January (to preclude a cold Feb) & one of the few ways we can remain BN despite increasingly unfavorable NINA/WQBO climo as winter progresses

Also, the 18Z GEFS is joining the 12Z EPS in coming in much improved vs earlier GEFS/EPS runs. It is almost as if a switch was  just turned on.
[/quote]
  Like my rain switch!  I told you there were mysterious switches being flipped!!  I told ya, lol.  T
[/quote]

Yes, you most certainly did, Tony! All of the models have continued to come in better since this post! This has to be one of the more pleasant sudden switches from an overall winter pattern standpoint! 2013-4 sudden switch at the same point of winter is very much still on the table of options. i'm wondering if the Alaskan ridge, which is a big part of this change, is largely induced based on the MJO progs.
[/quote]  Well, I was going with a pod of whales in the Pac swimming around the same area for too long, but I'll go with your more conventional approach for now, lol.  Switches make me think Harrp is involved somehow, but whatever the case, the switch to rain has been heartily accepted by me, and a switch to tons of sleet would bring me such joy, I might explode with happiness...unlike the switches I endured as a youth, with brought much pain, lol.  On a serious note, the abrupt advent of rains, after such a long cessation, makes the chances of more notable changes in the future seem possible...could this be the winter of the elusive foot of sleet???  How does Climo deal with sudden switches?  Are there parallels to be drawn?  If this switch, then that switch??? In the great snow events of the late 1800's did we switch suddenly to much colder, and huge storms around the south, or was it merely the very tag end of the Maunder minimum?  Larry, have we now switched to that thing I've longer for all my life...a new ice age??  A sleet age????  Oh, that it would be so!!  T

 

[dsaur]

I particularly like Goofy's 384 map wherein S.C. and Shawn are covered up in frozen, while Ga is covered up in rain.  Now that's an unusual look, lol.  T

 

[whatalife]

I particularly like Goofy's 384 map wherein S.C. and Shawn are covered up in frozen, while Ga is covered up in rain.  Now that's an unusual look, lol.  T

Love the look...LOL!


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[GaWx]

The 12Z King Euro looks like it is joining the lengthening list of models supporting a big pattern change from what models had been predicting as of just a couple of days ago!

 

[whatalife]

The 12Z King Euro looks like it is joining the lengthening list of models supporting a big pattern change from what models had been predicting as of just a couple of days ago!

Yep. Give me another day of model runs like we've been having and I'll have my hopes up again


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[GaWx]

[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2959#msg2959 date=1482345542]
The 12Z King Euro looks like it is joining the lengthening list of models supporting a big pattern change from what models had been predicting as of just a couple of days ago!

Yep. Give me another day of model runs like we've been having and I'll have my hopes up again


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[/quote]

It looks like JB may actually now be too delayed in the return of the cold. Imagine that!

 

[whatalife]

[quote author=whatalife link=topic=2.msg2960#msg2960 date=1482345820]
[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2959#msg2959 date=1482345542]
The 12Z King Euro looks like it is joining the lengthening list of models supporting a big pattern change from what models had been predicting as of just a couple of days ago!

Yep. Give me another day of model runs like we've been having and I'll have my hopes up again


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[/quote]

It looks like JB may actually now be too delayed in the return of the cold. Imagine that!
[/quote]

Wouldn't that be a shocker...SMH!


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[Storm5]

JB is stubborn.  When he screams cold he pounds it down everyone's throat. When he screams warmth for weeks and then cold starts showing on Op runs and ensembles he says they are wrong

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