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Pattern December Discussion

lol damn, just a little change
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GaWx link said:
Actually, the 18Z GEFS for the 6-15 day period is not at all a torch. It isn't far from normal, which would be a big victory in itself imo should it happen to verify. If anything, there is more of a weak trough than a SE ridge dominating the eastern US on that run for much of that period.
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I'm linking to this as the 18Z GFS ensemble of Sunday 12/18 was the first run hinting at a sudden change in the forecasts for the last few day of Dec and into early Jan. The 0Z GFS followed suit though no Euro/EPS run even showed a hint until the 12Z Tue 12/20 run. The GFS/GEFS doesn't get a whole lot of respect and that is understandable, but IF this change verifies, remember that it clearly led the way over the Euro. However, the EPS' favorable MJO forecast into the left portion of the circle has actually been there for a number of days now. That preceded its change to a colder E US by a number of days. Keep in mind that the MJO is but one of many major factors. So, though it was showing an MJO which has cold tendencies, the models were not yet showing cold. I was assuming that other factors were then trumping the MJO. Since then, things obviously changed in a huge way.

In my memories of SUDDEN LARGE CONSENSUS model changes from warm to a much colder direction for the E US in the 6-15 day period, this easily has to rank up there in my top 10!
 
Storm5 link said:
JB is stubborn.  When he screams cold he pounds it down everyone's throat. When he screams warmth for weeks and then cold starts showing on Op runs and ensembles he says they are wrong

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He use to say it about cold too! When he's hyping apocalyptic cold and models start showing warm, they are wrong! The first step to curing the problem, is admitting you have a problem!!
Hello! My name is JB! I have a bathtub problem! It never sloshes the right way that I need it to! :)
 
As tropical forcing shifts out of the Pacific, the influence of the WQBO/NINA base state, featuring a poleward displaced Aleutian ridge, will be restored as we get into early January. Hence, we'll probably see serious Siberian air start getting dumped into western North America and Alaska again after next week as the huge Aleutian/Bering Sea ridge goes up again. The cold shot just before New Year's is certainly nothing to sneeze at, but it should be relatively transient and the airmass itself looks continental polar (Cp). However, worth reiterating that serious arctic air will probably be on the doorstep of (or already in) the contiguous US before the end of the 1st week of January. There's definitely considerable uncertainty wrt its transport & if it eventually infiltrates the southeastern US, esp. considering that the SE US ridge tends to gain more amplitude, latitude, and usually is prevalent more frequently as winter progresses... If a formidable PV lobe gets stuck over southeastern Canada again all bets are really off. This is undoubtedly a fickle pattern
 
sounds like the bathtub is a rough place to be today. I hope JB busts , the spin would be epic
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JB just has to double down now since he changed from saying it was going to be cold to warm.
 
12z gefs really wants to build higher heights from Alaska towards the pole. would be nice if eps gets on board

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Dsaur link said:
I particularly like Goofy's 384 map wherein S.C. and Shawn are covered up in frozen, while Ga is covered up in rain.  Now that's an unusual look, lol.  T
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Lol, 850s aren't too bad.. maybe some sleet/snow going on.  Still no idea why the GFS is ran so far out.  Waste of computing power!
 
Even though the 12Z GEFS looks much better than the CMC ensemble mean, note that even the 12Z CMC ensemble mean is not as warm as it had been. So, it is now trending in the right direction along with the others though lagging and therefore being warmer than the others...just not as warm as it was.

As Storm5 mentioned before, the models may now be right with their colder trend but they may also be rushing the change in too fast, which is common. Also, note that the SE US is still warmer than normal in the 6-10 and near normal for the 11-15 models due to just glancing blows as well as up and down temperatures (not as cool as further north), but these are far cooler than the torch that was earlier shown here. Also, glancing blows can still result in wintry threats if there is enough moisture. But talking about potential wintry precip is premature right now as that is still way too far away.
 
The EPS and GEFS keep getting better for the SE US w/ every run... Large North Pacific ACWB is growing more pronounced & is progressively shifting further poleward & slightly NEward towards Alaska... Need this trend to continue.

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Storm5 link said:
12z  Canadian ensembles
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12z GEFS
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EPS look more in line w/GEFS...Building heights over Alaska towards the pole...


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whatalife link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2972#msg2972 date=1482351271]
12z  Canadian ensembles
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12z GEFS
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EPS look more in line w/GEFS...Building heights over Alaska towards the pole...


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[/quote]
yes sir indeed
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Re: December Discussion

just for fun the euro control goes nuts with the ridge over Alaska
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Starburst link said:
[quote author=Dsaur link=topic=2.msg2956#msg2956 date=1482343183]
I particularly like Goofy's 384 map wherein S.C. and Shawn are covered up in frozen, while Ga is covered up in rain.  Now that's an unusual look, lol.  T
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Lol, 850s aren't too bad.. maybe some sleet/snow going on.  Still no idea why the GFS is ran so far out.  Waste of computing power!
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Only wasted if that doesn't verify for you :)  You'll be singing Goofy's praises if that comes true, and I'll be cussing loud enough for you to hear, lol.
 
SD link said:
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Dear lord

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I would be willing to loan my wife out if someone would guarantee me I'd get that look at 500 mb in two weeks....

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