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Pattern December Discussion

With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
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I agree with that and honestly, that would work out better for us vs a true dump in the east as it would crush everything and we would have to hope we score on the back side when it lifts out.

I'm all for bleeding cold . Can get some big overrunning events that way

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Well, as long as it's not too far west. Montana and the Dakotas sliding over to the NE is good. I would love to see gulf moisture over-running a dry arctic air mass.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2859#msg2859 date=1482249129]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2857#msg2857 date=1482247902]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
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Get that MJO mojo!
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I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
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And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
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a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

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With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
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That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
 
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
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The only thing I'm basing this on is analogs and mine is 1988-89. Winter finally came in Feb 1989. Nothing ever works out exactly the same so I could very well be wrong.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Torchmas is looking less and less impressive.  Good ol' CAD.


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That's been happening all winter. The models show a warm up more than 7 days out only for them to back off when we get closer.
 
And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here.
 
The most reliable MJO forecasting model, the EPS, still more or less has the MJO getting over to the left side of the circle near New Year's. Inside the left side of the circle or barely outside the left side of the circle have had the coldest SE temperatures when all averaged out since 1975 though that, of course, doesn't mean it is always cold. There are sometimes warm periods during MJO phases that average chilly because the MJO is but one of a group of factors.
 
ATLWxFan link said:
Torchmas is looking less and less impressive.  Good ol' CAD.


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Yep. It came back a bit a couple days ago but it's backing off of it again. Looks like it's going to be seasonable, maybe slightly below then.
 
Well the GFS is still trying to look good in the long range....  I think we will be just fine after first of the year.  Few good winter threats in January and bring on an early Spring (older I get less I like long periods of cold Lol)
 
Euro going to be interesting for Christmas day... that's a big change for the CAD areas on the GFS (never gets out of the 40's here) and Euro been advertising mid upper 60's.  I'd love to have 40's with some light rain, great day to stay in, hangout with fam, open gifts, drink some coffee, play some cards and watch some football!
 
Brick Tamland link said:
And even when we've supposedly had great patterns we still ended up with nothing to show for up. And sometimes we have had big storms when most of the winter has been in a supposedly bad pattern. I don't think it really matters either way anymore. We're still going to need that small window of time either way when everything comes together right to get a winter storm here.
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This. Last winter would have been one of my worst since I've lived here if it weren't for one 12 inch snow storm in late January. As we all remember last winter was very warm but up here we got the perfect set up for one of the biggest snow storms the Nashville area has ever seen.
 
Saw on Facebook this morning where weed trimmer is calling for a Christmas day severe outbreak in the midwest.
 
metwannabe link said:
Euro going to be interesting for Christmas day... that's a big change for the CAD areas on the GFS (never gets out of the 40's here) and Euro been advertising mid upper 60's.  I'd love to have 40's with some light rain, great day to stay in, hangout with fam, open gifts, drink some coffee, play some cards and watch some football!
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now your talking , that sounds fun

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74112594.jpg
 
Cad Wedge NC link said:
That fits very well with the way I think things are going. Those big cold shots will not slam into the east this winter. They will come in over MT and ND and then drop straight south to TX. Looking ahead, if things continue on this path Jan is probably a lost cause, but for the Carolinas Feb could be very nice.
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I just don't see how you can possibly think that Jan is a lost cause??
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It's hard dealing with a Shetley!
 
ATLWxFan link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2882#msg2882 date=1482261618]
Euro is a snoozer
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Better than a blowtorch though.


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Yeah. It wasn't a terrible run and days 7-10 had some nice developments across the NHEM.
 
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