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Pattern December Discussion

Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2839#msg2839 date=1482208936]
don't even bother looking at the GFS beyond Christmas. Barf.
Click to expand...
I thought it was an improvement which isn't saying much with how bad the runs have been . Even starts going nuts in the NAO region . but I'm sure when I wake the 06z will look nothing like it

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[/quote]

Maybe it is better there but the scope and length of the torch is what got me lol
 
The 0Z King says: Here a ridge, there a ridge, everywhere a ridge ridge.
 
This, is certainly not the configuration one should be looking for to precede a cold WQBO/-ENSO February, hopefully it reverses *completely* & persists by and after mid-month, but I'm not holding breath (yet)... For the few years in this background that actually turned out BN here, we need to see eastern Atlantic/Scandinavian blocking in concert w/ a SE Canada trough (or some semblance of one) in January, we'll have the exact opposite of that to kick off the month.
eps_z500a_nh_51-1024x768.png


BTW, in case anyone missed it here was a winter forecast I put out with one of my meteorology friends several weeks ago. Thus far, couldn't be happier with how December is forecast to pan out.
http://ncwxmichaelmugrage.weebly.com/blog/category/winter-weather-outlook-20162017
 
whatalife link said:
May hour 384 on the 06z GFS get your hopes up until the 12z run...LOL!
d70fa4424b5b3b4de8c38e146913a804.jpg



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Click to expand...
Lol only 16 days away!

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Maybe signs of change as we move towards the New Years.  AO, after it tops near 5 in next few days, the mean takes it down towards neutral to negative.
e24344dcad7aa6a0c9abbf565aee643c.gif


The NAO also looks to head neutral with few going negative and the PNA heading towards positive territory around the 1st.
5033f7f6e3caa37d68c235595cf0a4ab.gif

The GFS MJO forecast still has us moving towards favorable phases 8 and 1 then possible continue to rotate to 2.

I know it's the parallel operational GFS post day 10 but it really starts to develop nice blocking up towards Greenland and establish some ringing out through the remainder of the run.

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Lol only 16 days away!

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[/quote]
Yep, it will be gone at 12z. However, as some have pointed out, this is what to look for if you want a winter storm in the southeast. It will not verify as shown, but I see opportunities coming for us down the road. This is the first of many long-range threats in Jan-Feb
 
I'd gladly take a repeat of that stretch in January 2000 and call it a winter. We can have awful patterns all winter, but give me a low blowing up like the GFS is showing for Jan 5, and I'll take it all the time. As long as we stay active and don't have a full blown torch with temps in the 60s and close to 70, I think we'll be okay. Just keep it close to normal and some precip chances every 7 to 10 days and I think we'll score once or twice with some winter storms.
 
Re: December Discussion

SD link said:
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...
It is nice. I have a question about the MJO. Is there any correlation with mjo moving into the favorable phases, and the development of high latitude blocking or a +pna/-epo? And if so how far downstream do you start to see the effects after it moves into those favorable phases for the southeast?

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Re: December Discussion

StoneMtnWx link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...
It is nice. I have a question about the MJO. Is there any correlation with mjo moving into the favorable phases, and the development of high latitude blocking or a +pna/-epo? And if so how far downstream do you start to see the effects after it moves into those favorable phases for the southeast?

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[/quote]
The effects are more rapid than you think. It would be noticed within a week or two.
 
Looks like after New Years, the conditions are starting to look conductive for snow.
 
Brick Tamland link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]

It certainly doesn't hurt. We will see though, it might be one of those quick bursts of ridging where we could score a wintry look in the midst of a warm pattern. I think the more likely option though is just less SE ridging
 
Tarheel1 link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2857#msg2857 date=1482247902]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2859#msg2859 date=1482249129]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2857#msg2857 date=1482247902]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
[/quote]
I agree with that and honestly, that would work out better for us vs a true dump in the east as it would crush everything and we would have to hope we score on the back side when it lifts out.

I'm all for bleeding cold . Can get some big overrunning events that way

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Storm5 link=topic=2.msg2859#msg2859 date=1482249129]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2857#msg2857 date=1482247902]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2856#msg2856 date=1482247680]
[quote author=Brick Tamland link=topic=2.msg2855#msg2855 date=1482247276]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2851#msg2851 date=1482245207]
Looks like MJO forecast from the GFS....falls in love
Click to expand...

Get that MJO mojo!
[/quote]

I'm not sure I am ready to jump into that forecast with both feet though I wouldn't be surprised to see some forced pacific ridging toward the new year
[/quote]
And that's good right? For east cold and snow? Forced ridging cause of the +PNA?
[/quote]
a +pna is no slam dunk for cold in the east . Obviously the chances go up but the ridge could setup too far West and dump the cold in the central US vs eastern . of course we are talking about mjo forecasts which bust all the time .

Sent from my SM-G900V using Tapatalk
[/quote]

With the way this year is going I would favor a cold drop into the west then bleed east
[/quote]
It's been almost non stop cold in the west since November! Seattle and Portland, have had more snow than Boston and NY so far
 
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