Pattern December Discussion

[GaStorm]

[quote author=SoutheastRidge link=topic=2.msg2205#msg2205 date=1481834823]
[quote author=Brent link=topic=2.msg2201#msg2201 date=1481833764]
[quote author=olhausen link=topic=2.msg2194#msg2194 date=1481831753]
The temperature right now imby is 23 degrees at 1:52pm. Just two days from now temp is supposed reach near 70 with thunderstorms. Then the very next day a high of 29 with a chance of snow. Talk about some wild swings in the weather.

75 Saturday 21 Sunday morning with wind chills of 5 here.

and it's 38 right now... lol
[/quote] You definitely don't see those kind of wild swings in GA. Not to that extent.
[/quote]


Yes, we do, I have seen CAD'S before when it is in the teens in NNE GA to low 80s in Valdosta.
[/quote]

He is talking about a drop in temp not difference in temp.

 

[Brent]

The most famous blue norther way back when

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Blue_Norther_of_November_11,_1911

Looking at the map from Oklahoma temps fell from the 80s to the teens just north of here

Some cities experienced tornadoes on Saturday and a blizzard on Sunday.[1] A blizzard even occurred within one hour after an F4 tornado hit Rock County, Wisconsin.

Springfield was at 80 °F (27 °C) at about 3:45 PM, before the cold front moved through. Fifteen minutes later, the temperature was at 40 °F (4 °C) with winds blasting out of the northwest at 40 mph (64 km/h).

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Curious to see if the energy depicted to come on shore around hr174 continues to show up. It really wanted to dig at 12z. This is the energy that seemingly brings rain to snow right after Christmas for NC

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Cutter

 

[Storm5]

interesting little wave on the gfs late next week

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[Brent]

So who's ready for Christmas tornadoes?

The 0z last night had zero rain here... this run has a Christmas flood... :

 

[SD]

Don't worry guys the weeklies will save us

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[Cary_Snow95]

I'm a noob when it comes to interpreting H5 maps but at hr210 that seemed quite interesting. What would it take to keep the wave from riding NE so sharply?

 

[SD]

I'm a noob when it comes to interpreting H5 maps but at hr210 that seemed quite interesting. What would it take to keep the wave from riding NE so sharply?

A -nao would help.  Also a west coast ridge versus zonal. That's a pretty stout SE ridge out front.

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[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

I'm a noob when it comes to interpreting H5 maps but at hr210 that seemed quite interesting. What would it take to keep the wave from riding NE so sharply?

As Shane mentioned the NAO which has a trough , no good. Trough in the GOA , no good and no real west coast ridge which is impacted by the GOA trough. Simple answer is a new pattern

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[Cary_Snow95]

[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=2.msg2236#msg2236 date=1481844545]
I'm a noob when it comes to interpreting H5 maps but at hr210 that seemed quite interesting. What would it take to keep the wave from riding NE so sharply?

A -nao would help.  Also a west coast ridge versus zonal. That's a pretty stout SE ridge out front.

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[/quote]

Gotcha. Well there hasn't been much to watch on models lately in the LR so something to watch i guess. Btw I guess I'm right around your neck of the woods

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Re: December Discussion

[quote author=Cary_Snow95 link=topic=2.msg2236#msg2236 date=1481844545]
I'm a noob when it comes to interpreting H5 maps but at hr210 that seemed quite interesting. What would it take to keep the wave from riding NE so sharply?

As Shane mentioned the NAO which has a trough , no good. Trough in the GOA , no good and no real west coast ridge which is impacted by the GOA trough.

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[/quote]

Thank you for the graphic, that really helped out. Appreciate it. This crap pattern has to break eventually...

 

[SoutheastRidge]

Storm, I'm trying to learn what all these maps mean but wouldn't that map be better for places further west like Texas and Oklahoma ? And especially places like Minnesota and the Dakotas ?

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

Storm, I'm trying to learn what all these maps mean but wouldn't that map be better for places further west like Texas and Oklahoma ? And especially places like Minnesota and the Dakotas ?

with nothing to keep the storm from cutting yes, locations NW of the low track would benefit.  Track location would determine exactly what areas but in general the areas you mentioned except for South Dakota it's probably too far NW and most of Texas except the far western areas would be rain until the end when it's pulling away and pulling down colder air

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[SD]

Euro weeklies are more of the same through the first week of Jan then things get a little better.  The control is much more impressive

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[GaWx]

JB's Twitter is relatively quiet today. That is not a good sign. By the way, the SAI is once again so far not working out but the idea is a solid -AO when averaged out over DJF. It can still flip strongly enough to -AO in JF to make it work this winter, but the prospects for that are hurt by the projected solid +AO for Dec as there is a decent correlation. The chances for a -AO in JF are clearly higher when Dec is also negative.

I sure hope things turnaround sharply a la 2013-14. That was a negative neutral ENSO with a stout SE ridge in Dec. Also, 1961-2 was somewhat similar. Those two winters ended up being banner winters at least per Atlanta wintry precip.

 

[Tarheel1]

JB's Twitter is relatively quiet today. That is not a good sign. By the way, the SAI is once again so far not working out but the idea is a solid -AO when averaged out over DJF. It can still flip strongly enough to -AO in JF to make it work this winter, but the prospects for that are hurt by the projected solid +AO for Dec as there is a decent correlation. The chances for a -AO in JF are clearly higher when Dec is also negative.

I sure hope things turnaround sharply a la 2013-14. That was a negative neutral ENSO with a stout SE ridge in Dec. Also, 1961-2 was somewhat similar. Those two winters ended up being banner winters at least per Atlanta wintry precip.

Larry, good stuff! You always give us nuggets that keep us away from the ledge! I think JB was mentioning the 61/62 winter in some of his November subscription drives! Lol

 

[GaWx]

^Thanks, Tarheel. So, yes, the SE ridge won't necessarily remain all winter. Even past Dec. it is not a done deal, especially since we're not in a strong La Niña. So, we'll see. One other thing: the current and projected MJO is actually still in a relatively good position (low amp) to allow for a good chance at a cold dominant pattern. Looking back to 1975 at prior persistent SE US cold periods, it was lower amplitude (either within or just outside the circle) most of the time. Of course, the SE ridge is saying "no persistent cold" for now and the MJO correlation is only partial. Also, it would be better if the MJO would get either into the left side of the circle or just outside the left side of the circle.

 

[Storm5]

Re: December Discussion

JB's Twitter is relatively quiet today. That is not a good sign. By the way, the SAI is once again so far not working out but the idea is a solid -AO when averaged out over DJF. It can still flip strongly enough to -AO in JF to make it work this winter, but the prospects for that are hurt by the projected solid +AO for Dec as there is a decent correlation. The chances for a -AO in JF are clearly higher when Dec is also negative.

I sure hope things turnaround sharply a la 2013-14. That was a negative neutral ENSO with a stout SE ridge in Dec. Also, 1961-2 was somewhat similar. Those two winters ended up being banner winters at least per Atlanta wintry precip.

Yeah a  2013-2014 turnaround is our best hope at this point . clearly now the first part of January isn't going to be very pretty. I guess we could have dumb luck and score along the way. The question then becomes IF we get into a better pattern how long does it last cause everything right now sure points to a horrible february. I know webber has some good stats and stuff rolling the pattern forward . Analogs don't offer a light at the end of the tunnel. They just off a dark tunnel. So I'm with your statement above about a 2013-2014 turnaround. It's gonna be badly needed

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[whatalife]

[quote author=GaWx link=topic=2.msg2247#msg2247 date=1481851121]
JB's Twitter is relatively quiet today. That is not a good sign. By the way, the SAI is once again so far not working out but the idea is a solid -AO when averaged out over DJF. It can still flip strongly enough to -AO in JF to make it work this winter, but the prospects for that are hurt by the projected solid +AO for Dec as there is a decent correlation. The chances for a -AO in JF are clearly higher when Dec is also negative.

I sure hope things turnaround sharply a la 2013-14. That was a negative neutral ENSO with a stout SE ridge in Dec. Also, 1961-2 was somewhat similar. Those two winters ended up being banner winters at least per Atlanta wintry precip.

Yeah a  2013-2014 turnaround is our best hope at this point . clearly now the first part of January isn't going to be very pretty. I guess we could have dumb luck and score along the way. The question then becomes IF we get into a better pattern how long does it last cause everything right now sure points to a horrible february. I know webber has some good stats and stuff rolling the pattern forward . Analogs don't offer a light at the end of the tunnel. They just off a dark tunnel. So I'm with your statement above about a 2013-2014 turnaround. It's gonna be badly needed

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[/quote]

I have a feeling I'll be tilling a garden in FEB (JK). I'm not overly hopeful that we're going to see a -AO and if we do it may very well be short lived.

I'm looking for maybe a 2 week window sometime mid January for us to possibly score and after that the winter shop may very well be closed for the SE. Here's to hoping for a 2013-2014 turn around...


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