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Pattern December Discussion

Tarheel1 link said:
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...
we are only 13 days into winter. the first half of January is considered to be in the first half of winter

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Tarheel1 link said:
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
 
Tarheel1 link said:
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...

For the most part, yes. Using data going back to 1896, the mean & median date for winter storms across North Carolina is January 26-27th, granted this climatological peak usually shifts earlier in January during La Ninas & into February during El Ninos
 
Storm5 link said:
brent there are some nice gefs members for you out in Texas next week

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That's interesting because most of the op runs have been a disaster since they started hyping lol
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]
to add to this , most of NC Will be 15-20 degrees below normal Friday

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Brent, I am considering moving to the Dallas area very soon and was wondering if you could give me information on what winters are like there. I'm guessing I wouldn't have to worry about the SE ridge as much. Also, it seems like TX  is usually in a more favorable location for wintry weather than GA and it seems like in general the weather there is more changeable and interesting. Also, what about humidity in summer. Is it more tolerable than in the southeast ?
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]

This may turn out to be one of the suckyest front loadings ever.  -1 departure for the front loaded win!
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2031#msg2031 date=1481737709]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]

This may turn out to be one of the suckyest front loadings ever.  -1 departure for the front loaded win!
[/quote]

Depends I guess. If we pile up a bunch of snow in January then the narrative would become "remember those cold blasts in December before all the snow in January". I would much rather have what we are having versus a +60 December like last year
 
Is there any chance that Dec ends up being our coldest winter month?  My biggest worry is that the pattern flips and Jan and Feb end up mild.
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2044#msg2044 date=1481740408]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2031#msg2031 date=1481737709]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]

This may turn out to be one of the suckyest front loadings ever.  -1 departure for the front loaded win!
[/quote]

Depends I guess. If we pile up a bunch of snow in January then the narrative would become "remember those cold blasts in December before all the snow in January". I would much rather have what we are having versus a +60 December like last year
[/quote]

I'm with you there!  We get some good snow the first half of Jan, then the December cold shots will have set the table, so to speak.  But if we torch in Jan and get shut out, then a -1 or -2 departure in December will have been slightly anticlimactic.  Either way, it IS better than last year, like you said.

BTW, you definitely win best avatar!  Who is that?
 
Rain Cold link said:
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2045#msg2045 date=1481740616]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2044#msg2044 date=1481740408]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2031#msg2031 date=1481737709]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]

This may turn out to be one of the suckyest front loadings ever.  -1 departure for the front loaded win!
[/quote]

Depends I guess. If we pile up a bunch of snow in January then the narrative would become "remember those cold blasts in December before all the snow in January". I would much rather have what we are having versus a +60 December like last year
[/quote]

I'm with you there!  We get some good snow the first half of Jan, then the December cold shots will have set the table, so to speak.  But if we torch in Jan and get shut out, then a -1 or -2 departure in December will have been slightly anticlimactic.  Either way, it IS better than last year, like you said.
[/quote]

I did get a little excited about the GFS trying to show some coastal lows toward the end of its run.....just sayin..


the avatar is Kacey Musgraves
 
SD link said:
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2048#msg2048 date=1481740935]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2045#msg2045 date=1481740616]
[quote author=Rain Cold link=topic=2.msg2044#msg2044 date=1481740408]
[quote author=SD link=topic=2.msg2031#msg2031 date=1481737709]
[quote author=Tarheel1 link=topic=2.msg2026#msg2026 date=1481735868]
So when does the front loading begin? Is January still the front of winter!? This is so frustrating
Click to expand...


we are below normal and may just finish December below normal. Sounds like its been front loaded to me
[/quote]

This may turn out to be one of the suckyest front loadings ever.  -1 departure for the front loaded win!
[/quote]

Depends I guess. If we pile up a bunch of snow in January then the narrative would become "remember those cold blasts in December before all the snow in January". I would much rather have what we are having versus a +60 December like last year
[/quote]

I'm with you there!  We get some good snow the first half of Jan, then the December cold shots will have set the table, so to speak.  But if we torch in Jan and get shut out, then a -1 or -2 departure in December will have been slightly anticlimactic.  Either way, it IS better than last year, like you said.
[/quote]

I did get a little excited about the GFS trying to show some coastal lows toward the end of its run.....just sayin..


the avatar is Kacey Musgraves
[/quote]

Nice!

Don't get sucked in!
 
SoutheastRidge link said:
Brent, I am considering moving to the Dallas area very soon and was wondering if you could give me information on what winters are like there. I'm guessing I wouldn't have to worry about the SE ridge as much. Also, it seems like TX  is usually in a more favorable location for wintry weather than GA and it seems like in general the weather there is more changeable and interesting. Also, what about humidity in summer. Is it more tolerable than in the southeast ?
Click to expand...

Honestly I hate half the year here. Summer drags on entirely too long Lol. It is more of a dry heat but its still hot. At night it can stay in the 80s. It can hit 100 in april and october and usually does it at least 20 or 30 times a summer. Spring and fall can be eventful but also can just be more summer. Winters are hit and miss like I've said before historically it really isn't any better than Atlanta is. We get more ice than snow here usually if it does come down to it. It also is not uncommon to be 75 for a week in the winter. We are more prone to extreme temperature drops but that doesn't equal snow. If I was moving somewhere for snow I'd move elsewhere that's for sure.
 
God the long range looks boring. Can't even get a fantasy snow storm
 
Well at first glance I did happen to notice that the GFS has started to pop some fantasy coastal lows in the 200-240 range. Given there is no HP up north but still encouraging I guess..
 
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