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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

The gfs will probably show a cutter with it barreling into 2 strong high pressures over 1035mb
 
Completely unrelated to the upcoming storm, but given this is an early December event too, it probably has some relevance to this thread generally speaking. I recently ran across this rather odd storm in early December 1937, there was 2" of snow in Raleigh w/ higher amounts in Franklin, Vance, & Warren counties but the heavy band of snow, while respectable in terms of intensity, was virtually about the width of just Wake County. Anyone outside of that (plus Clayton) didn't see accumulating snow.
December 2-3 1937 NC Snowmap.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models are not going to be 100% correct this far out. But to have some model runs show a foot or more of snow here and end up with just rain would be really bad. I could understand showing a couple of inches of snow and getting rain, but if they are that far off then that seems really bad to me.
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We are probably still 2-3 days away from having an idea either way. Until we get better agreement than this we won’t know.

Though I always like the EPS the best.

9FFB64FD-E44F-4C96-B28E-C9C50BDF7EED.png BB994E67-6AA2-4643-9F41-F94C63D29764.png
 
Brick Tamland said:
I know the models are not going to be 100% correct this far out. But to have some model runs show a foot or more of snow here and end up with just rain would be really bad. I could understand showing a couple of inches of snow and getting rain, but if they are that far off then that seems really bad to me.
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It wouldn’t be really bad. It would be really normal. That happens all the time. We’re many days away. And no model is showing a foot or more of snow here. It’s been said over and over and over how the snow maps aren’t accurately showing what is actual snow vs ice vs cold rain.
 
It looked as if the gefs trended in favor of on the 18z tho. I’m not a meteorologist but everything seems to be sliding in our favor
 
Rain Cold said:
It wouldn’t be really bad. It would be really normal. That happens all the time. We’re many days away. And no model is showing a foot or more of snow here. It’s been said over and over and over how the snow maps aren’t accurately showing what is actual snow vs ice vs cold rain.
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Well, those maps come from the models, right? I just think this far out that it is crazy they can not be more accurate than that. That is a heck of a difference between a foot of snow and rain. The technology should be better than that.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Well, those maps come from the models, right? I just think this far out that it is crazy they can not be more accurate than that. That is a heck of a difference between a foot of snow and rain. The technology should be better than that.
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It’s really not all that crazy. The maps are based on algorithms that don’t properly account for ice.
 
Mybad, yeah I was asking what that December event a ULL since it was pretty localized, I should of quoted it
 
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