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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Kylo said:
With the GFS/GEFS for the potential SSW....the Op is not as aggressive as it's ensembles. The OP doesn't even have a major SSW where every member of it's ensemble does. Who knows...but the Euro and it looks like EPS does have a major and the GEPS looks to be fairly aggressive and has a split.

View attachment 9334View attachment 9335
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Yeah, I’ve been noticing that the EPS runs and even more-so the GEPS runs are much more aggressive with the warming than the GFS/GEFS. If the GFS/GEFS were to verify, it won’t even get close to the brown (+28 to +32 anomalies) at 10 mb 60-90N and instead maybe make it only to near +20 to +24 at best. The GEPS is suggesting record breaking of warmer than +35 (well into grays). I’m going for now with the middle ground EPS, which is somewhere in the +30 to +34 range (brown to possibly barely gray). Just getting to +28 anomalies would make it the warmest in 10 years at 10 mb.
 
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Am I correct in assuming that the GEFS will be run off of the FV3 once the GFS is taken offline? Anybody know the answer to this?
 
GaWx said:
Yeah, I’ve been noticing that the EPS runs and even more-so the GEPS runs are much more aggressive with the warming than the GFS/GEFS. If the GFS/GEFS were to verify, it won’t even get close to the brown (+28 to +32 anomalies) at 10 mb 60-90N and instead maybe make it only to near +20 to +24 at best. The GEPS is suggesting record breaking of warmer than +35 (well into grays). I’m going for now with the middle ground EPS, which is somewhere in the +30 to +34 range (brown to possibly barely gray). Just getting to +28 anomalies would make it the warmest in 10 years at 10 mb.
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And GEPS has just been trending stronger and with split, though I can only see 10hpa.

gem-ens_Tz10_nhem_fh276_trend.gif
 
The hrrr/nam shows a persistent line segment/bow that goes over my area in about 5 hours with only 50-100jkg of mucape, just goes to show the intense wind energy with this storm
 
Arcc said:
Time for a January thread guys, I'm flagging the first week of January for potential. Once again gonna need some timing, but decent potential with the s/w deep into the SW with a much better look cold air wise than this current storm.
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I like the first week of January for a possible winter storm, too.

And I can start a January thread if the powers that be okay it.
 
SnowNiner said:
Unicorn...the myth lives on...

View attachment 9343
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The ole SSW head fake .

Judah is staying the course
5d75c943f5e807e1f6d2688c0711ad2a.png



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
May I just say, we have major issues if we have this HP look at the beginning of January 0D565D0E-985C-4613-97A9-81B0D88BB32A.png

And this is all it translates to at the surface F8BB983C-54DB-40F7-8187-A2E82289E0E6.png
With that said, it’s GFS voodoo land and I don’t believe it
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
May I just say, we have major issues if we have this HP look at the beginning of January View attachment 9345

And this is all it translates to at the surface View attachment 9344
With that said, it’s GFS voodoo land and I don’t believe it
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Not saying it is right or wrong, but even if it were right Id bet surface dew points are really low with that look. Would be lots of wetbulbing in that setup if a system was there.
 
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