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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

ATLwxfan said:
Sadly this is the best look we got south of God’s country. Right now our hopes hinge on the alleged SSW.


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No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


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Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


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I meant it sarcastically but I agree. In part because even if there is SSW there is no guarantee that we benefit. It could be Europe or the mountain west.


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Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


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Yeah even if we don't get the ssw, we have the mjo and Nino climo to eventually get us our -epo and +pna.

No ssw = darn good in the game pattern mid Jan to Feb , with -epo and stj.
Ssw = gold smack yo mamma pattern, buy a snowblower end of January -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna.
 
Or no ssw but -epo and active stj = a feild goal
Ssw with all other decent to good telleconections = touchdown with 2 point conversion
 
RollTide18 said:
Can anyone explain the bathtub sloshing thing from JB? I heard it years ago but I don’t understand what I means.
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I’ll be glad too! It’s simple, when it’s warm over the US for long periods of time in the winter, he and others would say the cold air had to “ slosh” back form other side of the world , to counter all the warmth .
 
Tarheel1 said:
What were the effects on weather 2-3 weeks down the line? Did we always get a colder pattern in the US and or SE? Was the 2009/10 SSW event , the kickstart to that awesome, snowy pattern?
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Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

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Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

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Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
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Thanks, Larry! ;)
 
It has been mentioned before that there could be CAD setting up around the 27th/28th ahead of the system that will be west of the southeastern states, tracking northeastward. I was just looking over the 12z Euro and it shows a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. Euro shows frozen precip for some in the CAD areas. But mostly a very cold rain for most. This can change, especially with a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. If you haven't looked at that on the Euro, you should, strong CAD signature.
 
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