• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
I meant it sarcastically but I agree. In part because even if there is SSW there is no guarantee that we benefit. It could be Europe or the mountain west.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Storm5 said:
No they don’t . People keep acting like it’s SSW or bust and that’s just not how it works .


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Click to expand...

Yeah even if we don't get the ssw, we have the mjo and Nino climo to eventually get us our -epo and +pna.

No ssw = darn good in the game pattern mid Jan to Feb , with -epo and stj.
Ssw = gold smack yo mamma pattern, buy a snowblower end of January -nao/-ao/-epo/+pna.
 
Or no ssw but -epo and active stj = a feild goal
Ssw with all other decent to good telleconections = touchdown with 2 point conversion
 
RollTide18 said:
Can anyone explain the bathtub sloshing thing from JB? I heard it years ago but I don’t understand what I means.
Click to expand...
I’ll be glad too! It’s simple, when it’s warm over the US for long periods of time in the winter, he and others would say the cold air had to “ slosh” back form other side of the world , to counter all the warmth .
 
Tarheel1 said:
What were the effects on weather 2-3 weeks down the line? Did we always get a colder pattern in the US and or SE? Was the 2009/10 SSW event , the kickstart to that awesome, snowy pattern?
Click to expand...

Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

------------------------------------
Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
 
GaWx said:
Mack, sorry for the delay in responding. Very mixed results:

- 1/09: No, this had nothing to do with the great winter of 09-10 as it was the prior winter. But the Feb AO did go modestly negative and then there was the big SE 3/1/09 bowling ball snowstorm though the daily AO's had switched back to + by then.

- 12/01: already had strong -AO during the late Dec SSW, which was immediately followed by the 1/2-3 major SE US snow. Coincidence since no multiweek lag?

- 12/98: +AO dominated winter 98-99. No evidence of help from SSW

- 1/92: The only El Nino winter of the 5. -AO that winter mainly only right at the time of the SSW. Otherwise +AO. Major snow ATL and vicinity just as the SSW was ending. Coincidence since no lag?

- 1/85: strong -AO already occurring at the time of the early Jan SSW. But then -AO got even stronger to in or near record territory 1/17-21 as the cold wave of the century hit many in the SE. Strong -AO remained for the next 30 days.

------------------------------------
Edit: The SSW centered near 12/29-30 still looks very strong (strongest at least since 1/09) on the 12Z EPS.
Click to expand...
Thanks, Larry! ;)
 
It has been mentioned before that there could be CAD setting up around the 27th/28th ahead of the system that will be west of the southeastern states, tracking northeastward. I was just looking over the 12z Euro and it shows a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. Euro shows frozen precip for some in the CAD areas. But mostly a very cold rain for most. This can change, especially with a massive 1044mb high off to the northeast. If you haven't looked at that on the Euro, you should, strong CAD signature.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top