Idk if that big cutter right before this is going to help our causeGotta time it right but this is a big change on the gfs for late next week MUCH colder
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Storm5
Member
Yep , plenty of cold in Canada
as well . Funny part is even with the pacific being a mess with the press north of the Great Lakes the mid south could time an overrunning event if the stars lined up correctly . But yeah the pacific is a hot mess
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When you say the pacific is a mess what exactly do you mean? Too much activity due to the location of the MJO?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
I think we could have a shot at another winter storm the first week of the New Year.
7-10 days after thun
derstorms, you get sleet and zr lol, anyways looks like models tryna latch on to maybe some overrunning
derstorms, you get sleet and zr lol, anyways looks like models tryna latch on to maybe some overrunning
tonysc
Member
You just had to mention Rush's cheeseburgers didn't you?
tonysc
Member
Yup, 1973 and 2010
My favorite snowstorm of all time. I was living in Greenwood, SC. 12-14 inches I got.
Kylo
Member
Pretty much...phases 3-5 have convection to far west to promote Aleutian low. Why we love modoki so much and dislike east based nino's so much.
https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/styles/inline_all/public/MJOfig1.png?itok=v0KBslE6
Hmmm. This map is showing 7-8" for the Greenwood area.
SnowNiner
Member
That's different...not so crappy. Let's go!! lol. Probably a bit early.
Kylo
Member
GEFS says -NAO for the win.
tonysc
Member
Hmmm all you want too, that's what I got.
It's going to block all that mild Pacific air from leaving. That warm pool in the GOA is not doing its job at all. #warmpoolfakenewsfraud
That upper disurbance may bring some light rain showers on Christmas Eve morning (timing may change) I doubt it will be cold enough for any frozen precip. areas south of TN. The northern fringes of TN into KY may get some light ice pellets/freezing drizzle/light freezing rain. The images are from the FV3, we might as well quit using the GFS.
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SnowNiner
Member
Nah, it looks cool. Not saying I believe it but verbatim it looks like a step in the right direction. Need the Aleutian low to keep retrograding west to pump the western ridge to really get in the game...but hey, it'd be really nice if we get this look early January instead of mid/late. Probably a bit too early though.
That's realistic, I've been talking about those wrap around snows over the past days. There could be some isolated areas across TN/into KY/far northern GA receiving some light accumulations. The NW facing slopes will no doubt get good accumulating snowfall.Better question is what is the NAM smoking?
The anomalies aren't bad. Not snowy weather, but no 70s at least. We do need that Aleutian Low to retrograde, as you said. Not going to get much of a flow out of the Arctic with continual storms in the GOA.
12z Euro still has the weak disturbance, Christmas Eve into Christmas day. Weak wedge, only if that high was a bit further south and east, and if it had a stronger mb, of course the wedge would be stronger. Still, something to watch.
Preach!!
18z GFS has that weak disturbance, some may luck out and get some light snow/sleet early, early Christmas Eve morning. I hope it trends colder, I hate to miss out on some light snow/sleet on Christmas Eve. That's a win!
