I am glad I wasnt alive for that storm.
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B Rad not chasing unicorns or drinking the kool aid!!
SnowNiner
Member
Great idea! 2-3 weeks after it happens, you’ll hear about record cold in London and Paris, and snow in Jerusalem, why we are still looking for that cold pattern!
Nah, come 3 weeks we'd feel the effects....if it's real. I'm just not there yet. This event is supposed to happen 10+ days away. I don't believe a 10 day storm is going to happen, so I'm dubious a 10 day strat split is going to happen. Apples and oranges probably I know, but I'd like to see this event get closer and closer in time next week before I feel confident in it happening. Then yes, about 3 weeks things would probably get pretty cold and stormy.
Hey you can’t post that. If it shows warmth it is clueless like us and we must throw it out with the GFS!
Also your phone battery is fully charged at 11:00. Impressive
Kylo
Member
Just as a baseline, the weeklies from Monday start to turn cold for the east after Jan10th....and CFSv2 is a little after that. So hopefully by end of next week we start seeing global ensembles hint at a return to cold.
All four GFS runs are pretty much a disaster. Haven't seen the GEFS or EPS. I'm sure they smooth out the disaster and make it only look like a disas.
Anyway, it will finally be nice when we start to see some good patterns start showing up again. This is boring.
Anyway, it will finally be nice when we start to see some good patterns start showing up again. This is boring.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Both bring in the SER for a decent duration. Probably going to be our patter for the end of the month into early January before it erodes and we get a better pattern.
SnowNiner
Member
Seeing the MJO where it is, I'm not even really looking closely at the models anymore. I look at 384 GEFS once and say yep, still turrible. Hopefully like Kylo said after the holiday next week things will start coming into view. We're simply in a timeout.
We're in a high risk high reward set up here folks. Things look really bad right now, but maybe they could be really good in 3 weeks. But will they? I'm scared. lol.
Feels more like ISS than a time out. Not that I would know about such things...
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Anyone know what the CMC is smoking??? Has some weird temps and 0Z had a weird system on Christmas.
The GFS and FV3 seems to have a decent low 50s to upper 40s for highs Christmas day and the European has upper 50s for highs, and is way warmer than the others.
The GFS and FV3 seems to have a decent low 50s to upper 40s for highs Christmas day and the European has upper 50s for highs, and is way warmer than the others.
RollTide18
Member
SnowNiner
Member
Ok, here's my thing with Brad P. He used to be called Brad Panicovich, anybody remember that? He used to be a weenie and overhype things and put everybody in a panic. He's gotten called out through the years and it seems he's now the opposite and poo poos every call for snow and cold in the Carolinas until it's starring him right in the face. I get it, he's overcorrecting. Just my opinion.
But that right there is an oversimplification as I've ever seen it. He's obviously heard of the SSW threat and it's being talked about in his twitterverse. If it does end up happening it will get cold and stormy eventually. Many, many atmospheric meteorologists are saying that yes it's possible this warming may create N. American blocking in January and turn the east colder stormier. For him to poo poo it and say, nope warm.... seems to be classic new Brad P.
Either way its ridiculously warm. 50s on Christmas Day should be a crime !
Cmc is smoking that green stuff, past few model runs ive noticed it's showed temps nearly in the teens in nc then temps in the afternoon over 60, not impossible but pretty strange
I'm not sure what's up with that. The models have a weak disturbance passing through, but they are having trouble with the temps. Heck, at this point we could see temps from the 30s to the 50s/60s lol.
Changes everywhere on the 12z models ...
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Gotta time it right but this is a big change on the gfs for late next week MUCH colder
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Kylo
Member
The blocking trying to develop is nice to see though. Pac is a mess and will be a mess until we get past phase 5.
Flurry
Member
As you know, this time of year, you really can't put much reliability at all in any of the models from 7 days and beyond...You just can't
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Lol there has been worse. Several years ago it was 78 on Christmas here with rain. That is a crime.