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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Rain Cold said:
I have a confession to make: After being a pretender for a long time, I have no idea how to read this map. I just rely on others to tell me if it's good or not. Does this mean it will probably snow at my house?

Man, it feels good to get that off my chest!
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No. Don't forget what side of the rain/snow line we live on, LOL.;)
 
Sleet City USA said:
FV3 has some very cold temps for early January
fv3p_T2m_us_65.png
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that's pretty close to average for that time of year in the early morning
 
I realize this is just an OP run but I’ve been model watching today and I feel the bottom will fall out once this bowling ball of LP (near and south of AK) transverses North America. You can see some beastly high pressures settling in on the other side of the hemisphere as this feature moves out. I think I saw a 1063 a couple frames before this

EF8F6A43-F3A0-49C3-AF3B-1944D01375A3.png
 
Storm5 said:
I have a confession as well ....

I have little faith in a split and its downstream impacts for my backyard . We hear the same stuff every winter about splits , while all the hype this winter has excited me I will admit I am a skeptic.

Damn that felt good !!


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
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Polar vortex explosions and SSW , never work ! They belong in the drain of JB’s jacuzzi! I new that R-C guy was a hack! He can read maps as good as Brick
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I realize this is just an OP run but I’ve been model watching today and I feel the bottom will fall out once this bowling ball of LP (near and south of AK) transverses North America. You can see some beastly high pressures settling in on the other side of the hemisphere as this feature moves out. I think I saw a 1063 a couple frames before this

View attachment 9291
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Fake news! That Alaska crap can stay there all winter, and never move
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
I have a confession as well: I do not know how to read weather models. 95% of my snow forecasts come from Brick’s “it always snows a week after temperatures are in the 70’s” theory
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Don’t forget the “ thunderstorms in winter” theory!? It’s as good as SSW events, I guess
 
I’m still waiting for the SSW to actually verify per the graph I follow. Hopefully it won’t be a dud and will verify within a couple of days. But so far nada.
 
GaWx said:
I’m still waiting for the SSW to actually verify per the graph I follow. Hopefully it won’t be a dud and will verify within a couple of days. But so far nada.
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GEFS is saying Dec 27-29th period. Euro is a little after that when looking at the zonal wind plots. Only have yesterdays run though, but todays seemed more bullish.

u_65N_10hpa_gefs.png
 
Kylo said:
GEFS is saying Dec 27-29th period. Euro is a little after that when looking at the zonal wind plots. Only have yesterdays run though, but todays seemed more bullish.

View attachment 9294
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Thanks. That explains why no significant warming has yet to occur. It is further out in time than I thought.
 
Kylo said:
And then it seems like a lot of the smart people say 2-3 weeks after before effect on the trop. is realized. So we got time it seems.
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Yes that’s about right, that’s why we keep seeing mid January. I’m looking forward to seeing the runs a few days before. I think around 2 week of January we will have a clearer idea on how it’s going to unfold. Hard not to like what we see forecast but then again it’s a LR forecast.
 
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