Well, played, sir. So this is not totally banter, FV3 is turning us much colder by the first of week of January. Is this an indication of the transition Webber is talking about or just error in the model?
Once you get out in la la land, it's really hard to tell, just going by the operational run of a model (I assume you are talking about the 6z run, which at the end, does show cooler temps). Just by looping the model, it looks transient, looking at the 500 mb pattern. Nothing seems to be ready to lock in place.
I tend to view a lot of flip-flopping near the end of model cycles as an indication that the pattern is in flux. If you step back and make a couple of assumptions: The MJO will continue its progression, the Strat warming will take place and disturb/split the vortex, and Nino will continue to progress as expected, then we should expect to start seeing a more favorable pattern appear more frequently and exhibit some stability in the longer ranges of the operational models. The ensembles would be even better for picking up these trends. In fact, at longer, less reliable leads, the Euro Weeklies and the CFS are pretty excited about a better pattern down the line.
All that said, there are a lot of reasons to be optimistic about a period (and quite possibly, a lengthy period) of winter setting in mid-January. My experience tells me that these things tend to be a little slower to evolve than the consensus thinking suggests. But hopefully, that won't be the case this time. I don't like waiting, and I especially don't like seeing the bulk of January slip by without winter showing up in force.
The other side note is, we don't need a locked in favorable pattern to get snow, although we all know it helps. A couple of well-timed waves with a transient cold shot will do the trick. So, even though we have some time to kill, vigilance is still appropriate.
