Nice 1048 high! Move it 300 miles south.If only it were January
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FV3 showing an epic snowstorm for the Mid Atlantic for New Years.
Storm5
Member
Sounds like someone is in desperation mode if they are hugging a 336 hr FV3 output...
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Anything that screws your backyard I’m all for
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We interrupt this program for a further Euro weekly analysis to add to what has already been posted:
I agree with StoneMtn and Kylo that they look very nice and much better than the prior run. Weeks 3-5 are sig colder while week 6 is slightly colder than the prior run. It is like a reversal of the warmer of the prior run and shows how low the skill is with every week changing heavily. The next run could easily reverse again. However, based on the weakish Nino and assuming the MJO will likely be coming around into the colder phases by mid-Jan, I actually think this is on the right track though it will probably be a rather slow transition. Week 3, though colder than the prior run, is still warm in the E 1/3 of the US though not nearly as warm as week 2. Week 4 has the transition to near normal SE vs +3 prior run (warm start and cold end). Week 5 is the coldest of the 6 weeks with 3-4 colder than normal nearly entire SE vs +1 prior run. Week 6 averages 2 colder than normal SE vs -1 prior run.
Overall, it appears the change to colder for the SE US would occur ~1/9 and remain dominated by colder than normal through 1/31 and likely beyond. Precip once the cold gets here to be near normal, which is all one can ask for with a solid +PNA since they can be dry. In summary, a very encouraging run that suggests the MJO will progress nicely once into Jan.
We now return you to regular posting,
ATLwxfan
Member
Quite a stretch of normal temps for ATL. I feel like recent years we’ve had stretches of above and below but few stretches of average.
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whatalife
Moderator
Anything that screws your backyard I’m all for
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
As I alluded to yesterday, phase 7 RMM MJO in January has been a pretty popular way to crank out a winter storm in NC during the 2000s. In fact, for the 13 trips the MJO has made to phase 7 in January during the 2000s, 11 of them have been met with at least one winter storm in NC.
All of the following storms below have occurred during phase 7 in January since 2000, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised this year decided to join the crowd when &/or if the MJO reaches phase 7 in the next several weeks.
January 2-3 2002
January 16-17 2003
January 9 2004
January 19 2005
January 20-21 2005
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 4 2016 (not mapped yet)
Fwiw, here's what MJO phase 7 composite looks like in January.
During El Ninos, it's arguably just as amazing.
Here it comes...
All of the following storms below have occurred during phase 7 in January since 2000, I wouldn't be the least bit surprised this year decided to join the crowd when &/or if the MJO reaches phase 7 in the next several weeks.
January 2-3 2002
January 16-17 2003
January 9 2004
January 19 2005
January 20-21 2005
January 17 2008
January 19 2008
January 29-30 2010
January 22 2011
January 17-18 2013
January 28 2013
January 28-29 2014
January 13-14 2015
January 4 2016 (not mapped yet)
Fwiw, here's what MJO phase 7 composite looks like in January.
During El Ninos, it's arguably just as amazing.
Here it comes...
Kylo
Member
Weeklies teleconnections.
Kylo
Member
Pretty good agreement that we suck out loud to end the month
I wish there was more to talk about in the short term. Our time is coming. The lights will flip and the snow will fall again
Edit: Just saw the Euro weeklies. Beautiful. MCouldn’t draw it up any better
I wish there was more to talk about in the short term. Our time is coming. The lights will flip and the snow will fall again
Edit: Just saw the Euro weeklies. Beautiful. MCouldn’t draw it up any better
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Webber, what is your resource for historic MJO data? I'd like to do a little research on my area.
I'm not Webb, but here's a good site with day by day MJO by phase back to 1974:
http://www.bom.gov.au/climate/mjo/graphics/rmm.74toRealtime.txt
MJO phase/amp for KATL major winter storms since MJO data available: (in = inside circle; out = outside circle)
1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in
So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common
2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in
So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample
3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/2009: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in
So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
1. ZR:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 12/14-15/2005: 2-1 in
- 1/28-9/2005: 5 in
- 1/28-30/2000: 1-2 in
- 1/22-3/2000: 7-8 in
- 2/6-7/1979: 2 in
So all 6 major ZRs inside circle with phases 2 and 5 the most common
2. IP:
- 2/12-13/2014: 5 in
- 1/7/1988: 8 in
- 2/17-18/1979: 3 out/in
So, 2.5 of 3 major IP inside circle but very small sample
3. SN:
- 1/9-10/2011: 6-5 out
- 2/12/2010: 8 out
- 3/1/2009: 4 out
- 1/2-3/2002: 7 out
- 3/13/1993: 4 out
- 1/18/1992: 8 out
- 1/22/1987: 3 out
- 3/24/1983: 8 in
- 1/12-14/1982: 4 in
So, 7 of 9 major SN outside circle with phases 4 and 8 the most common
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Need to watch a possible cad setup after Christmas, normally we know how their undermodeled, won't be wintry precip the whole time tho with that type of track (cutter) but models have been gaining consistency with a damming event around the 27-29 time frame
Not a lot of Feb ice or snow events in there!? Just saying
Yeah, Mack but fab Feb storms, which 100+ years ago were the most common winter storm, are finally trying to make a come back thanks to BBs like this one promoting them. 2010 and 2014 were fabs. Also, 2015 just missed a fab to the north. Also, keep in mind these are just the major fabs listed.
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I’ve also never thought the South could score with the weird phases of 4 and 5!? I guess you just get 8,1,and 2 pounded in your head for cold and snow phases! But the 4 and 5 phase storms, just at a glance, look to be March events? Maybe MJO phases 4/5 are colder for us as we head into spring? Good stuff as always @ GaWx!
Thanks, Mack. If you need someone to discuss wx stats with on the cruise and even though it would be a huge sacrifice for me to have to take the trip, let me know and I may be able to work the trip in. But I'll need to have my own abacus as well as uninterrupted 24 hour internet access and the TV on TWC all the time. I know Jimmy wants to go but perhaps I'd be a better one to go since I'd very likely not miss a winter storm here. I wouldn't want Jimmy to miss a storm at home.
Back to being serious, I'd need to check March. But I will say that the MJO seems to have been more predictive of temps than individual ATL major storms.
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Ilovesnow28
Member
This is the 45 day snowfall mean hmm tis the season
Let me check on the cruise!? The sad thing I just realized is, the last 4-5 wintry “ events” I’ve had here, including the great Dec storm of last week, my temps were never below 33 degrees for the duration! Hard to get good events with temps like those!Thanks, Mack. If you need someone to discuss wx stats with on the cruise and even though it would be a huge sacrifice for me to have to take the trip, let me know and I may be able to work the trip in. But I'll need to have my own abacus as well as uninterrupted 24 hour internet access and the TV on TWC all the time. I know Jimmy wants to go but perhaps I'd be a better one to go since I'd very likely not miss a winter storm here. I wouldn't want Jimmy to miss a storm at home.
Back to being serious, I'd need to check March. But I will say that the MJO seems to have been more predictive of temps than individual ATL major storms.