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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

DarkKnight said:
I hope so. I also hope it updates quicker then it does now. It takes like 2-3 hours sometimes.
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It will once it becomes fully operational, right now it's still in Beta which is why the updates are lagging...
 
Kind of looks like today’s storm, that was modeled to give AL and TN some snow!? The old cold chasing moisture scenario, a true unicorn
 
Not even a snowflake for anyone the whole 384hours of 12Z GFS!! Rain, after rain, after rain! Pattern change right on schedule! :(2B57E97D-7EF4-4C78-BA02-4DD82552CD71.png
 
Tarheel1 said:
Not even a snowflake for anyone the whole 384hours of 12Z GFS!! Rain, after rain, after rain! Pattern change right on schedule! :(View attachment 9416
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Even if true, the winter looks to really be in full force just after this period due to the MJO and SSW after effects in concert with the weak El Nino and +PNA/-NAO. Regardless, it already looks like cold may begin to dominate ~a week earlier than models had thought instead of waiting til 1/10.

SSW has just begun as we're now near bottom: http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png

This says 60-90 at 10 mb will warm 36 next week or 34 against the mean to ~+29 anom, the warmest in 10 years:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/gif_files/CFSv2_TMP_10hPa_60N-90N.png


This says 60-90 at 10 mb will warm 38 next week or 36 against the mean ~+29 anom,the warmest in 10 years :

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/gif_files/gfs_16day_fcst_T10.png

The pole is progged to warm within 5 days a massive 60C (-78C on 12/22 to -18C on 12/27, which is about as much sudden warming as has ever been seen!!
 
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A SAV airport low of 35 this morning, several degrees below normal.
 
SSW update: graph now through 12/24 and it shows 10 hPa anomalies warmed vs 24 hours earlier from +10 to +15 and further up in the strat. warmed from +16 to +20. With 4 more days of potential warming from 12/24, this is meeting expectations. Assuming 10 hPa reaches +28 (brown), which is still expected, this will become easily the strongest SSW in 10 years. Then we can see if it can make it to gray (+32+):

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/produc...gif_files/time_pres_TEMP_ANOM_OND_NH_2018.png

The GFS is still pretty much on track with still another 15+ C degrees of warming projected at 10 hPa (60-90N) and it has the bulk of the strong warming lingering longer than previous days all the way til almost New Year’s:

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/stratosphere/SSW/gif_files/gfs_16day_fcst_T10.png
 
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Here’s this7B609118-40DF-413C-89C7-0DFE85BD0CE4.png
 
Happy New Years, from the EPS! Jamming January incoming.....49192656-FAAB-456C-BA7B-474E916A6CDB.pngAB91BFB3-5126-47F3-BEE5-0B13F36A269E.png
 
John Cessarich is calling for between 1” and 4” of rain here between tomorrow and Saturday. Thanks John, that really narrows it down
 
I’m not going to sugarcoat this. It’s cold as sh*t. Stout breeze is making it worse. If I didn’t know any better I would think it was 28 degrees outside
 
Just happened to check my PWS stats for the month and my mouth dropped... recorded almost a foot(11.81" to be exact) of rain so far this month. What in hell? Several stations around me surpassed a foot so far this month. Unreal.
 
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