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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

Rain Cold said:
All four GFS runs look pretty much the same at 384 as they do at 0. What a terrible and disgusting never-ending pattern we're stuck in. It's so awesome to waste an entire month of the winter.
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Not sure how December was wasted for 2/3 of NC with the storm last week.. You just have bad luck where you live.
 
Brick Tamland said:
Not sure how December was wasted for 2/3 of NC with the storm last week.. You just have bad luck where you live.
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I mean the period after that through mid-Jan. The December stuff was great, but that's over. Now, we've got one week in the books and the next two are swirling the drain. After that, who knows, but it isn't looking good till we get deeper into Jan. Sure, we know Nino climo and back loaded winters, et al, but it doesn't make it suck any less seeing a wall to wall sucky pattern for the next two weeks of prime winter season. And I'd say the same thing if I got 2 feet of snow already.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean the period after that through mid-Jan. The December stuff was great, but that's over. Now, we've got one week in the books and the next two are swirling the drain. After that, who knows, but it isn't looking good till we get deeper into Jan. Sure, we know Nino climo and back loaded winters, et al, but it doesn't make it suck any less seeing a wall to wall sucky pattern for the next two weeks of prime winter season. And I'd say the same thing if I got 2 feet of snow already.
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CR/RC,
I’m wondering if you’ve been hanging around the miserable trix too long. She/he may be rubbing off on you a little. ;)
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean the period after that through mid-Jan. The December stuff was great, but that's over. Now, we've got one week in the books and the next two are swirling the drain. After that, who knows, but it isn't looking good till we get deeper into Jan. Sure, we know Nino climo and back loaded winters, et al, but it doesn't make it suck any less seeing a wall to wall sucky pattern for the next two weeks of prime winter season. And I'd say the same thing if I got 2 feet of snow already.
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Seems like a typical winter here to me. Looking at the long term pattern could be disheartening. but a lot of times we switch from a crappy pattern to a winter storm a week later.
 
Rain Cold said:
I mean the period after that through mid-Jan. The December stuff was great, but that's over. Now, we've got one week in the books and the next two are swirling the drain. After that, who knows, but it isn't looking good till we get deeper into Jan. Sure, we know Nino climo and back loaded winters, et al, but it doesn't make it suck any less seeing a wall to wall sucky pattern for the next two weeks of prime winter season. And I'd say the same thing if I got 2 feet of snow already.
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Normally yeah, I'm really only looking at an 8 week period where I expect winter weather, January 1 through February 28. Losing 3-4 weeks to a crappy pattern really does suck. But this is not a normal year. MBY got a decent storm in December which is very unusual so it does moderate my disappointment a good bit. Honestly if I don't get another storm this year, I can't say this year sucked. I only expect one decent storm a year, or hope anyway. Sometimes we don't get that. So having one in my back pocket, I'm pretty comfortable waiting for late January for the chance of another storm, which would make this winter pretty great if I get one more (or two!). But yeah if I missed out on the December storm seeing the front half of January off the table would be very frustrating. Especially considering all the great outlooks we had for January.

Keep nino climo hope alive! It's really all we got. Because we know where all that strat stuff leads us...
 
GaWx said:
CR/RC,
I’m wondering if you’ve been hanging around the miserable trix too long. She/he may be rubbing off on you a little. ;)
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Haha, I'm mostly trying to stay out of that stuff lately...mostly staying in the Econ thread. It's just that personally, I like to see some semblance of hope showing up in a somewhat reliable time frame. The strat stuff, analogs, antilogs, possible MJO progression 4 weeks out, etc. is just too far away. Not saying it won't come to fruition. It's just that we need to see some of these things show up at more reliable leads. I'm not bailing on winter by any stretch. But we've just X'd out one week. The marker is warming up for the current week and the next. So that's 3. Beyond that, it's murky, but you can usually add a week to work into a favorable pattern (at the minimum), so that's 4 and that's a month down the drain. I don't like it!!!!
 
SnowNiner said:
Normally yeah, I'm really only looking at an 8 week period where I expect winter weather, January 1 through February 28. Losing 3-4 weeks to a crappy pattern really does suck. But this is not a normal year. MBY got a decent storm in December which is very unusual so it does moderate my disappointment a good bit. Honestly if I don't get another storm this year, I can't say this year sucked. I only expect one decent storm a year, or hope anyway. Sometimes we don't get that. So having one in my back pocket, I'm pretty comfortable waiting for late January for the chance of another storm, which would make this winter pretty great if I get one (or two!). But yeah if I missed out on the December storm seeing the front half of January off the table would be very frustrating. Especially considering all the great outlooks we had for January.

Keep nino climo hope alive! It's really all we got. Because we know where all that strat stuff leads us...
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Yep agreed.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s that time of year when people go crazy and say things like maybe February it will turn around . It’s like clockwork every year


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Maybe by the end of Feb, we'll get the cold back on our side of the globe. Wait, did I say that out loud? :)
 
Kylo said:
RDU officially had 7", so that's the 2nd 6"+ storm for Raleigh in the calendar year. Probably hasn't happened often. And I know multiple 6"+ storms in a single winter season is rare. So yeah, odds say our best storm of the winter may be behind us but I would happily take a 2-4" event.
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The final 2 day total was 8.9". I don't think this winter cares about climo or RDU wouldn't have got a 8.9" storm before Christmas lol. I think RDU has a good shot of exceeding 20" for the season. Just my opinion. I officially forecast 14.7" back in October, but I think that'll be low most likely.
 
1300m said:
The final 2 day total was 8.9". I don't think this winter cares about climo or RDU wouldn't have got a 8.9" storm before Christmas lol. I think RDU has a good shot of exceeding 20" for the season. Just my opinion. I officially forecast 14.7" back in October, but I think that'll be low most likely.
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Wow, didn’t know it was 8.9”. We will have a good chance to eclipse the 10” mark. I don’t think we have done that since 04.
 
Storm5 said:
It’s that time of year when people go crazy and say things like maybe February it will turn around . It’s like clockwork every year


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Or they are convinced that the models are underestimating the cold. Strong weenie move.


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