ATLwxfan
Member
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ATLwxfan
Member
Time for the January thread. I think it’s 4th and long and we are in punt formation.
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WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I don't understand the lack of excitement?I was just wondering if anyone sees the potential that seems to be unfolding with the storm thursday and Friday... every run seems to be stronger and a little farther south,I know the model temperature profiles at the lower levels are bad, but this is the most likely area the models are most likely to underestimate in a impressively dynamic storm. This storm has much faster moving parts than the week storm that slid along the GOM last week. Instead of err to the cold side with cold air already in place, they tend to err to the warm side with intense storm with cold air flooding in to a warmer environment.
Well ICON says keep hope alive I guess for some FWIW. I'd like to see what it looks like within 60 hours of the NAM. However, maybe with the closed low and some dynamics in play places in TN/N AL/ into maybe NW GA and far N GA could be in play for something. Like what has been said though low level temps to surface are a concern right now with Global models. The NAM has been south with SLP 18Z had it near NOLA and 0Z has it there moving into AL, but it's extended so no idea where it goes from there.
Nice! 0z GFS data is coming in now, hopefully it will have the goods!
Storm5
Member
Upper 40s and rain on the 00z gfs
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Ilovesnow28
Member
Yeah I'm praying and hoping things trend better and keeping an eye out on the future runs as well.. it'll be fun if this storm was to catch us off guard
Yellow Snow
Member
We could always try a fake punt on 4th and long...after all, it worked out really well for UGA.
Jessy89
Member
I’m more interested in the 27th to 28th time frame. That could be a minor CAD event.
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Well, don’t understand how we have the 540 line so far south and wrapped into the system. But yet the 2m temps sucks.
I didn’t have much faith in this system. I guess we could learn from it.
I didn’t have much faith in this system. I guess we could learn from it.
GeorgiaGirl
Member
If we weren't in this pattern, this might be interesting for some areas given that it seems to be a dynamic storm (def not really for Atlanta though), but given that the unreliable ICON is the only thing showing anything, I'm 95% at "nothing to see here, move along".
Honestly glad lol, kinda wish we were in a better pattern as if so, there probably would be some legit snow for me to look at after the storm while I'm up in the far northern part of the state, but this pattern isn't very good.
Honestly glad lol, kinda wish we were in a better pattern as if so, there probably would be some legit snow for me to look at after the storm while I'm up in the far northern part of the state, but this pattern isn't very good.
Yeah, I'm not too sure about the GFS thermodynamics. The 0z ICON did well with the dynamic cooling I was talking about earlier today.
FVS is a little more believable tonight. It had temps in the mid 30’s with snow. Just a little bit hope for some of us. 
Fv3 snowfall
Well, the 0z FV3 is colder, dynamic cooling going on. A good bit of people across northern AL/GA and TN could be in for a good wrap around snowfall. Also, things can trend colder and colder.
Ilovesnow28
Member
I think this system is be a little underestimated I really do think people in Mississippi North and central Alabama and parts of extreme north Georgia needs to pay attention to this because temperature can very well trend colder as we get closerWell, the 0z FV3 is colder, dynamic cooling going on. A good bit of people across northern AL/GA and TN could be in for a good wrap around snowfall. Also, things can trend colder and colder.
Ilovesnow28
Member
First legit snowfall of the season for Alabama not out of the question because anything is possible
This is the IR simulation (GFS) you can see colder cloud tops behind low. This is an indication of convection, if this holds up, there would be good snowfall rates. Maybe 1/2" to 1" an hr or more.
Ilovesnow28
Member
@WxWatch I think we should reel this storm in I'm 80 percent confident that this storm will surprise some of the deep South by FridayThis is the IR simulation (GFS) you can see colder cloud tops behind low. This is an indication of convection, if this holds up, there would be good snowfall rates. Maybe 1/2" to 1" an hr or more.