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Pattern December - Deal or No Deal?

WxWatch said:
I'm not giving up yet with the wrap around precip. with the late week system. Reasons: 1.) The timing of the wrap around precip. is still over 100 hrs out. 2.) Evidence of colder surface temps. (on previous runs) can trend colder again on future model runs. 3.) Dynamic cooling is very possible.

Something shouldn't be counted off when there has been evidence of something occuring. Also, the storm system hasn't even developed yet. It's not even in the full 84 hr time frame to confirm what the GFS, Euro, FV3, etc. has been showing. By then, there could be some changes, big or small. You never know, there could be hefty wrap around snow showing up on the models within the next 48 hrs.
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What areas do you think have the best shot at accumulating snow? I highly doubt more than a trace in Atlanta, if even that.
 
GaWx said:
If you mean linking to the blog from wiki, good idea, Phil.
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Your blog is there; it's the new stuff you just added (at least I think it's new stuff - #'s 1- 7) that would make an exceptional addition ... I can copy and insert your text and links into Wiki, or you can send FS or me some text with the links, if you want ... or better yet, add it to your blog!
 
pcbjr said:
Your blog is there; it's the new stuff you just added (at least I think it's new stuff - #'s 1- 7) that would make an exceptional addition ... I can copy and insert your text and links into Wiki, or you can send FS or some text withe the links, if you want ... or better yet, add it to your blog!
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None of it is new. I retrieved all of that from looking back at the blog post, especially the diagram with average anomalies for each phase both inside and out.
 
GaWx said:
None of it is new. I retrieved all of that from looking back at the blog post, especially the diagram with average anomalies for each phase both inside and out.
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OK and good to know ... but I'm always looking for new, good, stuff to add to our Wiki!
 
WxWatch said:
I'm not giving up yet with the wrap around precip. with the late week system. Reasons: 1.) The timing of the wrap around precip. is still over 100 hrs out. 2.) Evidence of colder surface temps. (on previous runs) can trend colder again on future model runs. 3.) Dynamic cooling is very possible.

Something shouldn't be counted off when there has been evidence of something occuring. Also, the storm system hasn't even developed yet. It's not even in the full 84 hr time frame to confirm what the GFS, Euro, FV3, etc. has been showing. By then, there could be some changes, big or small. You never know, there could be hefty wrap around snow showing up on the models within the next 48 hrs.
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I agree with you that's why I'm not giving up on it as well... This is the third day in a row the models been consistently showing something from the 20-23 timeframe...
 
Arcc said:
Quite annoying. For the second time in two weeks if we had cold air at the 900mb level and below, portions of the south would see a very nice hit with that.
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Yeah sucks we have a two contour closed low and surface temps to that 900mb level sucks.
 
I'd like to know the percentage of the time over the last 70 years (when historical upper atmospheric maps started) in Dec that a two contour low didn't produce sig snow in the SE. I don't have the time to research that and it would be very time consuming. But if someone had an enormous amount of time, they could look at the daily wx maps for every Dec day back 70 years, find the days with the two contour lows, and then looked at the daily wx conditions for key cities nearby. Or if they didn't have that much time, maybe they could look back, say, only 25 years or whatever.

I do already know that the number of major snows at ATL from a pure upper low without an accompanying Gulf low moving well to the south is very low with 3/1/2009 being one of the very few exceptions. Almost all major ATL snows were associated with Gulf surface lows, often weak, whether or not there was an accompanying closed upper low. 3/1993 was a very rare very strong Gulf low, by far the strongest on record to produce major ATl snow.
 
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One odd thing about this winter is since 1950 we have never had a winter nino where the SOI was positive for Oct, Nov and December. But, that is about to occur. The 90 day SOI will be solidly positive once we hit December 31 as the solidly negative period to end Sept rolls off...assuming the models are correct.

You would think we had a fading nino about to flip to neutral/nina...which we don't.

Screen Shot 2018-12-16 at 8.09.56 PM.png
 
75607bcda02ad82a4e08d5561017423b.jpg


Something brewing for CAD areas the 27-28th


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GaWx said:
I'd like to know the percentage of the time over the last 70 years (when historical upper atmospheric maps started) in Dec that a two contour low didn't produce sig snow in the SE. I don't have the time to research that and it would be very time consuming. But if someone had an enormous amount of time, they could look at the daily wx maps for every Dec day back 70 years, find the days with the two contour lows, and then looked at the daily wx conditions for key cities nearby. Or if they didn't have that much time, maybe they could look back, say, only 25 years or whatever.

I do already know that the number of major snows at ATL from a pure upper low without an accompanying Gulf low moving well to the south is very low with 3/1/2009 being one of the very few exceptions. Almost all major ATL snows were associated with Gulf surface lows, often weak, whether or not there was an accompanying closed upper low. 3/1993 was a very rare very strong Gulf low, by far the strongest on record to produce major ATl snow.
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I found this website (link below) that lists accumulating snowfalls in ATL that dates back to the 1930s. There are some accumulating snowfalls in there in the month of Dec. but most of them are a trace. I would have to do some more digging to view the maps to see the setup. Some maps are hard to find though.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/GA/Atlanta/extreme-annual-atlanta-snowfall.php
 
WxWatch said:
I found this website (link below) that lists accumulating snowfalls in ATL that dates back to the 1930s. There are some accumulating snowfalls in there in the month of Dec. but most of them are a trace. I would have to do some more digging to view the maps to see the setup. Some maps are hard to find though.

https://www.currentresults.com/Yearly-Weather/USA/GA/Atlanta/extreme-annual-atlanta-snowfall.php
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From what I know, meteocentre (where I get the UKMET) has retrospective maps, but I don't know how to find them off the top of my head. Used it to look at a couple previous storms.
 
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